Thursday, September 11, 2008

Week 3 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the expected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the expected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided.


Thursday, September 11 52.0% PWE; North Carolina 25, RUTGERS 24 (44-12 F)


Friday, September 12
72.6% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 28, Kansas 19 (37-34 F)


Saturday, September 13
98.1% PWE; ALABAMA 43, Western Kentucky 3 (41-7 F)
78.9% PWE; Arizona 30, NEW MEXICO 15 (28-36 F) X
94.0% PWE; ARIZONA STATE (h) 38, UNLV 13 (20-23 F) X
86.9% PWE; Auburn 31, MISSISSIPPI STATE 12 (3-2 F)
55.8% PWE; Ball State 27, AKRON 25 (41-24 F)
83.6% PWE; BOISE STATE 35, Bowling Green 20 (20-7 F)
69.7% PWE; BUFFALO 26, Temple 19 (30-28 F)
73.8% PWE; BYU (h) 30, UCLA 20 (59-0 F)
79.2% PWE; California 31, MARYLAND 17 (27-35 F) X
85.2% PWE; CLEMSON 31, North Carolina State 14 (27-9 F)
74.6% PWE; CONNECTICUT 27, Virginia 17 (45-10 F)
76.3% PWE; East Carolina 33, TULANE 20 (28-24 F)
70.9% PWE; EASTERN MICHIGAN 30, Toledo 23 (17-41 F) X
84.6% PWE; Georgia 30, SOUTH CAROLINA 13 (14-7 F)
75.0% PWE; HOUSTON 31, Air Force 21 (28-31 F) X
82.0% PWE; ILLINOIS 31, Louisiana Lafayette 17 (20-17 F)
90.7% PWE; IOWA 31, Iowa State 10 (17-5 F)
90.7% PWE; KENTUCKY 35, Middle Tennessee 14 (20-14 F)
96.3% PWE; LSU 42, North Texas 0 (41-3 F)
68.9% PWE; MARSHALL 30, Memphis 23 (17-16 F)
96.9% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 38, Florida Atlantic 10 (17-0 F)
98.2% PWE; MISSOURI 43, Nevada 10 (69-17 F)
66.6% PWE; Navy 28, DUKE 21 (31-41 F) X
83.9% PWE; NEBRASKA 33, New Mexico State 17 (38-7 F)
57.3% PWE; NOTRE DAME 25, Michigan 22 (35-17 F)
66.9% PWE; OHIO 28, Central Michigan 22 (28-31 F) X
87.7% PWE; Oklahoma 35, WASHINGTON 14 (55-14 F)
78.9% PWE; Oregon 33, PURDUE 17 (32-26 F)
85.1% PWE; OREGON STATE 37, Hawaii 19 (45-7 F)
97.3% PWE; PENN STATE 35, Syracuse 6 (55-13 F)
55.1% PWE; San Diego State 25, SAN JOSE STATE 23 (10-35 F) X
61.1% PWE; Southern Mississippi 24, ARKANSAS STATE 20 (27-24 F)
80.5% PWE; TCU 30, Stanford 16 (31-14 F)
96.9% PWE; TENNESSEE (h) 37, UAB 10 (35-3 F)
85.4% PWE; TEXAS 34, Arkansas 17 *POSTPONED to 9/27*
98.3% PWE; TEXAS TECH (h) 44, SMU 10 (43-7 F)
58.9% PWE; USC 24, Ohio State 21 (35-3 F)
93.0% PWE; Utah 36, UTAH STATE 12 (58-10 F)
79.1% PWE; VANDERBILT 32, Rice 20 (38-21 F)
76.0% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 27, Georgia Tech 16 (20-17 F)
63.2% PWE; Washington State 28, BAYLOR 22 (17-45 F) X
77.4% PWE; Western Michigan 34, IDAHO 20 (51-28 F)
70.1% PWE; Wisconsin 30, FRESNO STATE 20 (13-10 F)

4 comments:

bmoore_ucla said...

Brian, it would be nice to see a weekly success rating (weighted by your confidence estimate) for your picks.

Bert said...

Can you show how you stack up against the spread as well as straight up?

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