Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Week 5 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the expected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the expected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided.

Thursday, September 25
98.3% PWE; TULANE (h) 42, SMU 9 (34-27 F)
98.4% PWE; USC 41, OREGON STATE (h) 8 (21-27 F) X

Friday, September 26
52.3% PWE; Connecticut 25, LOUISVILLE 24 (26-21 F)

Saturday, September 27
61.2% PWE; Arkansas State 27, MEMPHIS 23 (17-29 F) X
82.5% PWE; AUBURN 28, Tennessee 14 (14-12 F)
98.0% PWE; BALL STATE 41, Kent State 9 (41-20 F)
70.0% PWE; Bowling Green 30, WYOMING 20 (45-16 F)
97.3% PWE; CALIFORNIA 38, Colorado State 10 (42-7 F)
63.8% PWE; Central Florida 31, UTEP 24 (13-58 F) X
67.9% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 28, Buffalo 21 (27-25 F)
82.7% PWE; Cincinnati 33, AKRON 14 (17-15 F)
92.0% PWE; DUKE 31, Virginia 10 (31-3 F)
93.5% PWE; EAST CAROLINA 39, Houston 15 (24-41 F) X
94.5% PWE; FLORIDA 35, Mississippi 11 (30-31 F) X
57.8% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 24, Colorado 21 (39-21 F)
86.2% PWE; Fresno State 35, UCLA 15 (36-31 F)
71.9% PWE; GEORGIA 25, Alabama 17 (30-41 F) X
74.2% PWE; IOWA 28, Northwestern 18 (17-22 F) X
93.5% PWE; KANSAS STATE 37, Louisiana Lafayette 13 (45-37 F)
99.9% PWE; KENTUCKY 50, Western Kentucky 0 (41-3 F)
98.3% PWE; LSU 39, Mississippi State 3 (34-24 F)
52.5% PWE; Maryland 22, CLEMSON 21 (20-17 F)
88.0% PWE; Michigan State 35, INDIANA 14 (42-29 F)
51.3% PWE; Minnesota 24, OHIO STATE 23 (21-34 F) X
71.7% PWE; New Mexico 30, NEW MEXICO STATE 19 (35-24 F)
64.4% PWE; North Carolina 25, MIAMI 19 (28-24 F)
90.3% PWE; Northern Illinois 37, EASTERN MICHIGAN 14 (37-0 F)
67.6% PWE; NOTRE DAME 27, Purdue 21 (38-21 F)
85.2% PWE; OKLAHOMA (h) 34, TCU 17 (35-10 F)
90.1% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 34, Troy 14 (55-24 F)
98.7% PWE; Oregon 43, WASHINGTON STATE 9 (63-14 F)
96.8% PWE; PENN STATE 35, Illinois 7 (38-24 F)
91.1% PWE; Pittsburgh 34, SYRACUSE 10 (34-24 F)
91.8% PWE; RICE 38, North Texas 17 (77-20 F)
91.9% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE 35, Idaho 13 (45-17 F)
81.5% PWE; San Jose State 36, HAWAII 20 (20-17 F)
98.1% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA (h) 41, UAB 6 (26-13 F)
68.0% PWE; South Florida 27, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 (41-10 F)
68.8% PWE; Stanford 28, WASHINGTON 18 (35-28 F)
98.0% PWE; TEXAS 42, Arkansas 11 (52-10 F)
97.4% PWE; TEXAS A&M 39, Army 10 (21-17 F)
89.7% PWE; TOLEDO 34, Florida International 14 (16-35 F) X
93.3% PWE; UNLV 37, Nevada 13 (27-49 F) X
62.7% PWE; Virginia Tech 24, NEBRASKA 20 (35-30 F)
96.7% PWE; WAKE FOREST 38, Navy 12 (17-24 F) X
85.5% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 34, Marshall 17 (27-3 F)
59.7% PWE; Western Michigan 27, TEMPLE 23 (7-3 F)
73.5% PWE; Wisconsin 29, MICHIGAN 17 (25-27 F) X

3 comments:

Wheell said...

You are effectively foreseeing 2300 points this weekend. Even with the new clock rules I expect over 2400 points.

You also say there is a slightly better than 52% chance that Jim Tressel gets fired next week. Interesting prediction.

Anonymous said...

competitive possessions are measured only

Wheell said...

Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky...

50-0?

That means it was competitive at 43-0?

:)