Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Week 11 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided.

Tuesday, November 4
87.3% PWE; BUFFALO 31, Miami (OH) 13 (37-17 F)

Wednesday, November 5
79.0% PWE; AKRON 28, Toledo 16 (47-30 F)
73.8% PWE; BALL STATE 35, Northern Illinois 27 (45-14 F)

Thursday, November 6
56.3% PWE; UTAH (h) 30, TCU 27 (13-10 F)
90.4% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 33, Maryland 13 (23-13 F)

Friday, November 7
75.6% PWE; FRESNO STATE 27, Nevada 17 (28-41 F) X

Saturday, November 8
84.2% PWE; AIR FORCE 29, Colorado State 14 (38-17 F)
78.2% PWE; Alabama 37, LSU 23 (27-21 F)
98.5% PWE; Arizona 42, WASHINGTON STATE 0 (59-28 F)
86.5% PWE; Arizona State 31, WASHINGTON 10 (39-19 F)
72.0% PWE; Arkansas State 22, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 12 (21-22 F) X
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 43, Utah State 3 (49-14 F)
72.5% PWE; BOSTON COLLEGE 33, Notre Dame 24 (17-0 F)
53.1% PWE; Bowling Green 24, OHIO 23 (28-3 F)
87.8% PWE; BYU 30, San Diego State 9 (41-12 F)
72.2% PWE; COLORADO 23, Iowa State 15 (28-24 F)
87.3% PWE; DUKE 33, North Carolina State 14 (17-27 F) X
88.8% PWE; EAST CAROLINA 34, Marshall 14 (19-16 F)
76.0% PWE; Florida 39, VANDERBILT 27 (42-14 F)
94.3% PWE; FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27, North Texas 3 (46-13 F)
83.8% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 35, Clemson 19 (41-27 F)
79.1% PWE; Georgia 34, KENTUCKY 20 (42-38 F)
51.8% PWE; Hawaii 21, NEW MEXICO STATE 20 (42-30 F)
80.0% PWE; HOUSTON 30, Tulane 17 (42-14 F)
57.5% PWE; Illinois 30, WESTERN MICHIGAN 27 (17-23 F) X
61.2% PWE; LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (h) 24, UTEP 20 (24-37 F) X
71.3% PWE; Memphis 27, SMU 17 (31-26 F)
89.1% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 37, Purdue 17 (21-7 F)
60.3% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 21, Louisiana Monroe 17 (24-21 F)
83.5% PWE; MINNESOTA 35, Michigan 20 (6-29 F) X
97.0% PWE; MISSOURI 44, Kansas State 14 (41-24 F)
64.1% PWE; NEBRASKA 27, Kansas 22 (45-35 F)
54.9% PWE; New Mexico 22, UNLV 21 (20-27 F) X
70.1% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA 35, Georgia Tech 27 (28-7 F)
54.1% PWE; Ohio State 31, NORTHWESTERN 30 (45-10 F)
97.4% PWE; Oklahoma 43, TEXAS A&M 14 (66-28 F)
69.7% PWE; OREGON 29, Stanford 21 (35-28 F)
75.2% PWE; Oregon State 31, UCLA 17 (34-6 F)
76.2% PWE; Penn State 40, IOWA 27 (23-24 F) X
85.8% PWE; PITTSBURGH 37, Louisville 20 (41-7 F)
76.0% PWE; RICE 30, Army 20 (38-31 F)
88.9% PWE; RUTGERS 33, Syracuse 13 (35-17 F)
69.4% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 24, Louisiana Tech 17 (0-21 F) X
91.4% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA 35, Arkansas 14 (34-21 F)
58.8% PWE; Southern Mississippi 24, CENTRAL FLORIDA 21 (17-6 F)
94.9% PWE; TENNESSEE 34, Wyoming 9 (7-13 F) X
98.5% PWE; TEXAS 50, Baylor 12 (45-21 F)
74.7% PWE; TEXAS TECH 40, Oklahoma State 30 (56-20 F)
80.6% PWE; TROY 24, Western Kentucky 10 (17-7 F)
91.7% PWE; USC 42, California 21 (17-3 F)
75.6% PWE; WAKE FOREST 30, Virginia 20 (28-17 F)
65.8% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 30, Cincinnati 24 (23-26 F) X
70.3% PWE; Wisconsin 30, INDIANA 20 (55-20 F)

5 comments:

Wheell said...

I think the BYU game is in Utah.

LaFortune Teller said...

Corrected, thanks.

www.TomahawkNation.com said...

These totals all seem very high. In fact, I'd be willing to eyeball this and say that 65%+ are over the posted vegas total.

Do these predictions factor in home field advantage?

Brian Fremeau said...

Tomahawk --

The total forecasted competitive possession points scored for all 53 games this week is 2632 (24.8 points per team average). I don't have the over/under data for this week to directly compare that number to anything.

However, last week, FEI forecasted 2452 total competitive possession points to be scored in 50 games (24.5 points per team). The total over/under last week was 2643 (26.4 points per team). The actual total points scored last week was 2772 (27.7 points per team).

***

Yes, the forecasts do in factor in home field advantage. Click my name for a link to the Football Outsiders column that covers the process.

Scalper said...

The Alabama and Florida names seem to be considerably over the total, by almost 2 TDs each.

Many ACC games seem very high scoring (GT/ UNC 13 points higher than total), yet...

Many B12 games seem too low (Kansas 12 points lower)

Do you have ATS O/U data for the season?