Thursday, December 18, 2008

FEI Bowl Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided.

Saturday, December 20
64.6% PWE; Arizona 37, BYU 31 (31-21 F)
60.0% PWE; Fresno State 31, Colorado State 27 (35-40 F) X
77.0% PWE; South Florida 33, Memphis 20 (41-14 F)
66.9% PWE; Wake Forest 28, Navy 21 (29-19 F)

Sunday, December 21
70.8% PWE; Southern Mississippi 34, Troy 24 (30-27 F)

Tuesday, December 23
55.2% PWE; Boise State 23, TCU 21 (16-17 F) X

Wednesday, December 24
88.1% PWE; Notre Dame 30, Hawaii 10 (49-21 F)

Friday, December 26
85.5% PWE; Central Michigan 40, Florida Atlantic 21 (21-24 F) X

Saturday, December 27
81.9% PWE; Florida State 30, Wisconsin 14 (42-13 F)
60.9% PWE; Miami 28, California 24 (17-24 F) X
77.4% PWE; North Carolina 27, West Virginia 14 (30-31 F) X

Sunday, December 28
88.0% PWE; Northern Illinois 31, Louisiana Tech 13 (10-17 F) X

Monday, December 29
62.1% PWE; Missouri 35, Northwestern 31 (30-23 F)
58.3% PWE; Rutgers 28, North Carolina State 24 (29-23 F)

Tuesday, December 30
80.3% PWE; Maryland 40, Nevada 24 (42-35 F)
53.9% PWE; Oklahoma State 40, Oregon 38 (31-42 F) X
63.2% PWE; Western Michigan 42, Rice 37 (14-38 F) X

Wednesday, December 31
86.1% PWE; Boston College 27, Vanderbilt 9 (14-16 F) X
90.9% PWE; Georgia Tech 38, LSU 17 (3-38 F) X
66.3% PWE; Houston 35, Air Force 28 (34-28 F)
56.1% PWE; Minnesota 29, Kansas 27 (21-42 F) X
77.6% PWE; Pittsburgh 38, Oregon State 24 (0-3 F) X

Thursday, January 1
86.9% PWE; Clemson 35, Nebraska 17 (21-26 F) X
61.5% PWE; Georgia 34, Michigan State 30 (24-12 F)
72.9% PWE; Iowa 24, South Carolina 13 (31-10 F)
57.4% PWE; Penn State 28, USC 26 (24-38 F) X
68.0% PWE; Virginia Tech 24, Cincinnati 17 (20-7 F)

Friday, January 2
69.8% PWE; Alabama 30, Utah 21 (17-31 F) X
81.9% PWE; East Carolina 27, Kentucky 11 (19-25 F) X
53.3% PWE; Texas Tech 31, Mississippi 30 (34-47 F) X

Saturday, January 3
65.1% PWE; Connecticut 27, Buffalo 21 (38-20 F)

Monday, January 5
68.5% PWE; Texas 28, Ohio State 21 (24-21 F)

Tuesday, January 6
75.1% PWE; Ball State 40, Tulsa 28 (13-45 F) X

Thursday, January 8
63.0% PWE; Florida 35, Oklahoma 30 (24-14 F)

13 comments:

Corey said...

For one of my pools I'm relying solely on your forecasts to see what happens. I did the exact same thing - lined up the matchups, subtracted the high FEI from the low FEI in each, and sorted. My PWE matched yours exactly except for FSU/WIS and ECU/UK were switched. Too bad I didn't know that, I would've sent you my spreadsheet from the week 15 ratings to save you the hassle :)

Scott said...

I'll be VERY interested to see how BCF Toys' picks involving ACC teams pan out.
I think the ACC has been over-rated all season, and now we'll get some on-field feedback.
Brian, thanks for all you do to make this website fun and informative. You're efforts are greatly appreciated.

LaFortune Teller said...

Thanks for the feedback, guys. I'm curious about the ACC this bowl season as well. They handled themselves well in the ACC/SEC final week showdown.

I think FEI has a good confidence pool track record the last few years. Good luck, Corey.

Wheell said...

Good luck tomorrow, it will be judgement day for the SEC with 3 games. One is roughly pick'em (UNC), one the ACC is expected to win (FSU), and one they are almost a double digit dog (Miami). I know three games are a small sample but a 3-0 would still look good, and an 0-3..., well, let's just root for the ACC for dear old FEI. :)

Wheell said...

1-2 by your standards, 3-0 by Vegas standards. The ACC is 4-0 by one measure. Not bad.

Wheell said...

The ACC is now 2-3 or 5-0, depending on your view of the world. Tomorrow Maryland will be carrying the flag into battle. Good luck turtles.

Wheell said...

ACC is now 3-3 (6-0). Is that the definition of an underrated conference? Boston College and Georgia Tech look to keep the streak alive tomorrow.

RTh said...

ok, Georgia Tech was projected to win easily and was never in the game. That projection was waaaay off. Of course, what took them out of it was special teams play.

But still, that's -56 for you.

RTh said...

Anyway, VT-Cincinnati today pits an old Big East team against a new Big East team. Can't wait.

Wheell said...

Still plenty of good seats available for the Orange Bowl.

Wheell said...

Brian, I have a request: Can you rerun the BCS championship game with the updated information from the bowls. I am very curious to see where the Big 12 and SEC stand relative to each other given what we have learned. I know FEI takes strength of schedule into account. Well, what do we think of their schedules now?

LaFortune Teller said...

Wheell --
Sorry, I don't have all the data yet to run that number before the game. The Big 12 did take somewhat of a hit in the public eye this bowl season, but the conference's overall FEI profile might not have changed all that much. FEI wasn't too stunned by the TTech, OkSt, Missouri or Texas games, and the Kansas and Nebraska wins might actually give the conference a small boost. Likewise, LSU's boost might counter any drop by Alabama.

Wheell said...

I have to say after watching the game that Florida winning 63% of the time looks dead on. Oklahoma wasn't quite as good, but were still extremely competitive, and were even briefly dominant. A fun game to watch even if USC would pants either one of them.