Thursday, September 03, 2009

Week 1 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 1 Forecasts are based on the 2009 Projected FEI Ratings.

Thursday, September 3
86.5% PWE; BALL STATE 35, North Texas 17 (10-20 F) X
56.4% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 27, Troy 24 (31-14 F)
52.0% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA STATE 22, South Carolina 20 (3-7 F) X
52.4% PWE; Oregon 25, BOISE STATE 24 (8-19 F) X
98.3% PWE; UTAH 41, Utah State 6 (35-17 F)

Friday, September 4
89.3% PWE; Tulsa 41, TULANE 20 (37-13 F)

Saturday, September 5
82.2% PWE; ARIZONA 35, Central Michigan 19 (19-6 F)
93.6% PWE; AUBURN 30, Louisiana Tech 0 (37-13 F)
88.3% PWE; CALIFORNIA 31, Maryland 13 (52-13 F)
98.3% PWE; CLEMSON 38, Middle Tennessee 6 (37-14 F)
75.3% PWE; Connecticut 25, OHIO 12 (23-16 F)
65.7% PWE; EASTERN MICHIGAN 24, Army 19 (14-27 F) X
70.7% PWE; Georgia 38, OKLAHOMA STATE 28 (10-24 F) X
70.2% PWE; Kentucky 30, MIAMI (OH) 20 (42-0 F)
93.7% PWE; LSU 38, WASHINGTON (h) 12 (31-23 F)
93.5% PWE; MICHIGAN 31, Western Michigan 7 (31-7 F)
82.8% PWE; Minnesota 33, SYRACUSE 17 (23-20 F)
70.2% PWE; Missouri 34, Illinois 21 (37-9 F)
95.8% PWE; NEBRASKA 38, Florida Atlantic 12 (49-3 F)
69.0% PWE; NEW MEXICO STATE 28, Idaho 21 (6-21 F) X
97.9% PWE; NOTRE DAME 44, Nevada 12 (35-0 F)
94.6% PWE; OHIO STATE 37, Navy 14 (31-27 F)
79.5% PWE; Oklahoma 37, BYU 17 (13-14 F) X
98.0% PWE; PENN STATE 46, Akron 14 (31-7 F)
79.4% PWE; PURDUE 30, Toledo 17 (52-31 F)
74.9% PWE; Stanford 33, WASHINGTON STATE 20 (39-13 F)
98.5% PWE; TENNESSEE 44, Western Kentucky 3 (63-7 F)
98.5% PWE; TEXAS 54, Louisiana Monroe 6 (59-20 F)
82.2% PWE; TEXAS A&M 33, New Mexico 18 (41-6 F)
81.5% PWE; UAB 38, Rice 24 (44-24 F)
98.1% PWE; UCLA 40, San Diego State 7 (33-14 F)
98.5% PWE; USC 52, San Jose State 0 (56-3 F)
85.0% PWE; UTEP 40, Buffalo 23 (17-23 F) X
59.0% PWE; Virginia Tech 23, Alabama 16 (24-34 F) X
88.8% PWE; WAKE FOREST 34, Baylor 14 (21-24 F) X
92.5% PWE; WISCONSIN 33, Northern Illinois 10 (28-20 F)

Sunday, September 6
86.2% PWE; COLORADO 34, Colorado State 17 (17-23 F) X
79.2% PWE; Mississippi 31, MEMPHIS 17 (45-14 F)

Monday, September 7
62.8% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 27, Miami 23 (34-38 F) X
82.0% PWE; RUTGERS 31, Cincinnati 17 (15-47 F) X

4 comments:

Scott said...

BYU is already dinged up on the O-Line, and doesn't have any more speed in the secondary now than it did last season when it got scored on in heavy doses.
I don't see OU not getting to the 50s, and BYU will probably have trouble with the very speedy OU defense.
That game looks more like 63-10 than 37-17 to me.

Joe said...

But it won't be competitive when it gets to 63-10. It will probably stop being competitive around 42-7.

Joe said...

Scratch that.

Scott said...

Scratch that, indeed.
BYU could not play better than it did Saturday night.
The Mountain West had a pretty good weekend against the Big 12, winning two of three. In addition to the BYU win, Colorado State beat Colorado.