Thursday, September 24, 2009

Week 4 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 4 Forecasts are based on the Week 3 FEI Ratings.

Thursday, September 24
70.9% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA 24, Mississippi 16 (16-10 F)

Friday, September 25
86.1% PWE; Missouri 40, NEVADA 20 (31-21 F)

Saturday, September 26
92.0% PWE; AIR FORCE 35, San Diego State 13 (26-14 F)
86.8% PWE; ALABAMA 33, Arkansas 14 (35-7 F)
58.8% PWE; Arizona 27, OREGON STATE 24 (37-32 F)
98.3% PWE; AUBURN 40, Ball State 7 (54-30 F)
79.1% PWE; Boise State 31, BOWLING GREEN 17 (49-14 F)
75.8% PWE; BOSTON COLLEGE 25, Wake Forest 14 (27-24 F)
98.2% PWE; BYU 44, Colorado State 12 (42-23 F)
93.0% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 42, Akron 20 (48-21 F)
61.3% PWE; CINCINNATI 28, Fresno State 24 (28-20 F)
74.8% PWE; CLEMSON (h) 24, TCU 14 (10-14 F) X
79.5% PWE; EAST CAROLINA 24, Central Florida 11 (19-14 F)
98.5% PWE; Florida 42, KENTUCKY 6 (41-7 F)
84.8% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 31, South Florida 14 (7-17 F) X
72.0% PWE; GEORGIA 31, Arizona State 23 (20-17 F)
69.7% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 27, North Carolina 20 (24-7 F)
50.7% PWE; Iowa 24, PENN STATE 23 (21-10 F)
75.2% PWE; IOWA STATE 28, Army 18 (31-10 F)
68.5% PWE; KANSAS 31, Southern Mississippi 24 (35-28 F)
85.0% PWE; KENT STATE 37, Miami (OH) 20 (29-19 F)
79.5% PWE; LOUISIANA MONROE 30, Florida Atlantic 17 (27-25 F)
87.2% PWE; LSU 34, MISSISSIPPI STATE (h) 14 (30-26 F)
57.3% PWE; Marshall 24, MEMPHIS 21 (27-16 F)
67.1% PWE; MARYLAND 30, Rutgers 24 (13-34 F) X
96.9% PWE; MICHIGAN 40, Indiana 12 (36-33 F)
71.5% PWE; Middle Tennessee 34, NORTH TEXAS 23 (37-21 F)
54.2% PWE; Minnesota 24, NORTHWESTERN 23 (35-24 F)
97.9% PWE; NAVY 47, Western Kentucky 9 (38-22 F)
83.7% PWE; NEBRASKA 37, Louisiana Lafayette 21 (55-0 F)
78.1% PWE; NEW MEXICO 26, New Mexico State 14 (17-20 F) X
98.1% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 42, Idaho 9 (31-38 F) X
72.0% PWE; Notre Dame 28, PURDUE 17 (24-21 F)
97.9% PWE; OHIO STATE 45, Illinois 7 (30-0 F)
51.2% PWE; OREGON 22, California 21 (42-3 F)
62.4% PWE; Pittsburgh 28, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 23 (31-38 F) X
68.9% PWE; STANFORD 30, Washington 23 (34-14 F)
62.1% PWE; TEMPLE 25, Buffalo 20 (37-13 F)
87.0% PWE; TENNESSEE 28, Ohio 10 (34-23 F)
98.5% PWE; TEXAS (h) 54, UTEP 14 (64-7 F)
72.7% PWE; TEXAS A&M (h) 37, UAB 28 (56-19 F)
65.0% PWE; Texas Tech 35, HOUSTON 28 (28-29 F) X
62.0% PWE; Toledo 28, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 23 (41-31 F)
66.2% PWE; Troy 27, ARKANSAS STATE 20 (30-27 F)
98.5% PWE; USC 52, Washington State 3 (27-6 F)
81.0% PWE; UTAH 28, Louisville 14 (30-14 F)
91.9% PWE; Vanderbilt 38, RICE 14 (36-17 F)
52.5% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 26, Miami 24 (31-7 F)
52.9% PWE; WISCONSIN 23, Michigan State 21 (38-30 F)
78.1% PWE; WYOMING (h) 33, UNLV 21 (30-27 F)

2 comments:

A White said...

Have you found in the past that your predictions (both win and score) get more accurate as the season goes on (i.e. you get more data). Or would you never use this for true predictive purposes (e.g. gambling).

LaFortune Teller said...

Last season, the predictions did get stronger towards the end of the season. I don't measure the success of the predictions exclusively against betting lines, though they may be instructive. The FEI data input disregards garbage possessions, as do the projections. Obviously, the betting lines do not.