Thursday, December 17, 2009

FEI 2009-10 Bowl Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Saturday, December 19
85.2% PWE; Fresno State 33, Wyoming 15 (28-35 F) X
65.7% PWE; Rutgers 26, Central Florida 20 (45-24 F)

Sunday, December 20
70.0% PWE; Southern Mississippi 28, Middle Tennessee 20 (32-42 F) X

Tuesday, December 22
81.9% PWE; Oregon State 37, BYU 22 (20-44 F) X

Wednesday, December 23
65.2% PWE; California 25, Utah 20 (27-37 F) X

Thursday, December 24
52.5% PWE; Nevada 29, SMU 28 (10-45 F) X

Saturday, December 26
73.0% PWE; Ohio 27, Marshall 17 (17-21 F) X
67.1% PWE; Pittsburgh 26, North Carolina 20 (19-17 F)
65.3% PWE; USC 23, Boston College 17 (24-13 F)

Sunday, December 27
76.0% PWE; Clemson 28, Kentucky 17 (21-13 F)

Monday, December 28
80.0% PWE; Georgia 35, Texas A&M 21 (44-20 F)

Tuesday, December 29
71.4% PWE; Miami 30, Wisconsin 21 (14-20 F) X
58.3% PWE; UCLA 23, Temple 21 (30-21 F)

Wednesday, December 30
67.3% PWE; Arizona 24, Nebraska 17 (0-33 F) X
73.9% PWE; Bowling Green 37, Idaho 27 (42-43 F) X

Thursday, December 31
67.5% PWE; Houston 30, Air Force 24 (20-47 F) X
73.8% PWE; Minnesota 31, Iowa State 20 (13-14 F) X
62.6% PWE; Navy 28, Missouri 23 (35-13 F)
61.9% PWE; Stanford 28, Oklahoma 24 (27-31 F) X
77.6% PWE; Virginia Tech 30, Tennessee 17 (37-14 F)

Friday, January 1
70.6% PWE; Auburn 28, Northwestern 20 (38-35 F)
57.3% PWE; Florida 28, Cincinnati 26 (51-24 F)
61.8% PWE; Oregon 24, Ohio State 20 (17-26 F) X
50.2% PWE; Penn State 21, LSU 20 (19-17 F)
53.7% PWE; West Virginia 28, Florida State 27 (21-33 F) X

Saturday, January 2
76.5% PWE; Arkansas 32, East Carolina 20 (20-17 F)
60.0% PWE; Connecticut 24, South Carolina 21 (20-7 F)
62.9% PWE; Mississippi 24, Oklahoma State 19 (21-7 F)
58.4% PWE; Northern Illinois 27, South Florida 24 (3-27 F) X
70.0% PWE; Texas Tech 31, Michigan State 23 (41-31 F)

Monday, January 4
60.4% PWE; TCU 24, Boise State 20 (10-17 F) X

Tuesday, January 5
59.0% PWE; Georgia Tech 27, Iowa 24 (14-24 F) X

Wednesday, January 6
92.2% PWE; Central Michigan 38, Troy 14 (44-41 F)

Thursday, January 7
71.2% PWE; Alabama 27, Texas 18 (37-21 F)

9 comments:

Wheell said...

Thanks for the public service. Some bold calls here on UConn and NIU. I'll be rooting for them on your behalf.

Wheell said...

15-17 with 2 to go. Go CMU. :)

LaFortune Teller said...

It has been a bizarre bowl season, that's for sure.

Wheell said...

Hopefully it gets less bazaar. Go Bama!

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