Monday, March 01, 2010

Connectivity in College Football: 1989 vs. 2009

In 1989, there were 106 Division 1A (now called FBS) teams. A total of 582 games were played between those teams, including 18 bowl games. 52 of the total games (8.9 percent, or about 1 in 11) were played between teams ranked in the Associated Press final top-25.

In 2009, 120 FBS teams played a total of 714 games against one another, including 34 bowl games. Only 38 of the total games (5.3 percent, or about 1 in 20) were played between Associated Press final top-25 teams. (EDIT: Actually, 39 games were played in 2009, 5.5 percent, or about 1 in 19. The infographic doesn't reflect that Clemson and Georgia Tech played twice).

The AP final top-25 was significantly more connected in 1989 than 2009. Only nine ranked teams played at least four games against other ranked teams last season; in 1989, 18 ranked teams did so. Twenty years ago, the AP top-10 either played or shared a common opponent with an average of 17 other ranked teams. In 2009, the AP top-10 either played or shared a common opponent with an average of only 12.6 other ranked teams.

In twenty years, the frequency of games played between top-25 teams has been cut by nearly 40 percent. The primary reason for the decline has been conference expansion. In 1989, 25 teams were independent, including AP final Nos. 1, 2 and 3 and six of the top-25 overall. In 2009, only 3 FBS teams were independent, none of which were ranked. Additionally, there were 94 FBS vs. FCS games played last year, 17 involving AP top-25 teams. Only 50 such games were played in 1989, two by AP top-25 teams.
For more information, see Paul Kislanko who has been doing great work with college football connectivity for several years. See also the AP Poll Archive for historical Associated Press rankings.

331 comments:

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Kyle said...

This is a fascinating way to look at schedules. I would like to see this analysis done with further distinction by color differentiating between bowl games, conference games, and independent/out-of-conference games.

Brian Fremeau said...

Thanks for the suggestion. I'll plan on expanding this kind of visual analysis in future graphics, and I'll definitely play with more varieties of comparisons.

Free-Nokia-Ringtones said...

Any chance you will do a review of superlative teams from the decade? I'd love to know if the 2004 Penn State football team was the most inefficient Segment 3 team of the decade.

Anonymous said...

Nice analysis. The data itself speaks volumes, but it doesn't translate well to your graphs. Not enough contrast between the two to get your primary point across.

Anonymous said...

I notice that in 1989 only BYU would be considered a non-BCS school vs 2009 with Boise St, BYU, TCU and Cent Mich.

Now that the non-BCS schools have become bigger players, this may continue to be a hinderance as the WAC/ MAC send only 1 school to the top 25.

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nice post. thanks.

LT said...

Really liked this post. Got me thinking about the possible effect of 16-team super-conferences on the quality of college football matchups... Looks like we've been spared that particular fate, for the moment, but it's still somewhat worrisome.

I ganked part of this post for my most recent blog entry. I gave you credit, of course, and linked back to this blog. Hope you don't mind.

niz said...
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Do you have a comparison to other years? How do we know that 1989 or 2009 weren't just random fluctuations in the connectivity of college football?

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Twenty years ago, the AP top-10 either played or shared a common opponent with an average of 17 other ranked teams. In 2009, the AP top-10 either played or shared a common opponent with an average of only 12.6 other ranked teams.

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