Thursday, September 02, 2010

FEI Forecasts: Week 1 (Sep. 2 - 6)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Thursday, September 2
62.1% PWE; Minnesota 25, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 20 (24-17 F)
55.6% PWE; Northern Illinois 30, IOWA STATE 28 (10-27 F)
98.1% PWE; OHIO STATE 40, Marshall 8 (45-7 F)
60.0% PWE; Pittsburgh 24, UTAH 20 (24-27 F)
80.1% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA 28, Southern Mississippi 15 (41-13 F)
79.1% PWE; UAB 37, Florida Atlantic 24 (31-32 F)
98.5% PWE; USC 43, HAWAII (h) 10 (49-36 F)

Friday, September 3
87.9% PWE; Arizona 38, TOLEDO 17 (41-2 F)

Saturday, September 4
98.5% PWE; ALABAMA 48, San Jose State 3 (48-3 F)
52.8% PWE; Army 23, EASTERN MICHIGAN 22 (31-27 F)
97.9% PWE; AUBURN 44, Arkansas State 6 (52-26 F)
76.4% PWE; BYU 34, Washington 23 (23-17 F)
68.1% PWE; Cincinnati 35, FRESNO STATE 27 (14-28 F)
98.5% PWE; CLEMSON 49, North Texas 6 (35-10 F)
82.2% PWE; Colorado 30, Colorado State 14 (24-3 F)
98.5% PWE; FLORIDA 46, Miami (OH) 3 (34-12 F)
98.5% PWE; GEORGIA 47, Louisiana Lafayette 3 (55-7 F)
55.9% PWE; LOUISVILLE 25, Kentucky 22 (16-23 F)
58.8% PWE; LSU 21, North Carolina 18 (30-24 F)
62.8% PWE; MICHIGAN 28, Connecticut 24 (30-10 F)
91.1% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 35, Western Michigan 13 (38-14 F)
89.9% PWE; MISSISSIPPI STATE 38, Memphis 17 (49-7 F)
77.2% PWE; Missouri 33, Illinois 20 (23-13 F)
97.9% PWE; NEBRASKA 38, Western Kentucky 7 (49-10 F)
82.8% PWE; NOTRE DAME 35, Purdue 20 (23-12 F)
98.5% PWE; OKLAHOMA 47, Utah State 7 (31-24 F)
95.2% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 34, Washington State 8 (65-17 F)
98.1% PWE; OREGON 45, New Mexico 8 (72-0 F)
59.4% PWE; Syracuse 24, AKRON 20 (29-3 F)
69.6% PWE; TCU 28, Oregon State 21 (30-21 F)
98.5% PWE; Texas 43, RICE 6 (34-17 F)
61.8% PWE; TROY 28, Bowling Green 24 (30-27 F)
59.6% PWE; UCLA 25, KANSAS STATE (h) 21 (22-31 F)
50.8% PWE; VANDERBILT 23, Northwestern 22 (21-23 F)
92.8% PWE; Wisconsin 43, UNLV 18 (41-21 F)

Sunday, September 5
64.2% PWE; EAST CAROLINA 27, Tulsa 22 (51-49 F)
96.4% PWE; TEXAS TECH (h) 42, SMU 14 (35-27 F)

Monday, September 6
54.0% PWE; Navy 26, Maryland 25 (14-17 F)
63.4% PWE; Virginia Tech 27, Boise State 22 (30-33 F)

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great to see the projectioins back for another year. Will you be posting the FEI projections, offensive and defensive, for each team this year too?

Anonymous said...

Have you pretty much abandoned this site other than the weekly forecast. Would love to see the FEI #'s after last week.

I see you have not responded to the question. I am not high on the S&P #'s and would prefer to see more of your stuff. FO seems to have a love affair with S&P.

Brian Fremeau said...

Haven't abandoned this site at all. I'll be adding in the FEI ratings for this week and some other pages here to better track the week to week FEI ratings and projections.

Let me know what else you'd like to see here.

Anonymous said...

Perfect. I was just afraid your FEI was morfing into the F+ at FO and we were going to lose access to the FEI numbers.

Kyle said...

Brian, forgive me if it's written somewhere on this site and I have missed it, but how do you calculate FEI for the early games? It appears there is weight given to variables other than the play on the field for early games, but I cannot determine what variables go into that calculation.