Thursday, September 16, 2010

FEI Forecasts: Week 3 (Sep. 16 - 18)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Thursday, September 16
59.3% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA STATE 35, Cincinnati 31 (30-19 F)

Friday, September 17
67.7% PWE; California 36, NEVADA 28 (31-52 F)
78.2% PWE; Kansas 31, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 17 (16-31 F)

Saturday, September 18
91.0% PWE; Alabama 40, DUKE 17 (62-13 F)
62.8% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 24, Louisiana Monroe 19 (34-20 F)
68.4% PWE; ARMY 27, North Texas 20 (24-0 F)
97.3% PWE; Boise State 36, WYOMING 6 (51-6 F)
59.2% PWE; Central Florida 24, BUFFALO 20 (24-10 F)
73.7% PWE; Central Michigan 33, EASTERN MICHIGAN 21 (52-14 F)
52.6% PWE; Clemson 24, AUBURN 23 (24-27 F)
82.6% PWE; COLORADO 31, Hawaii 16 (31-13 F)
70.0% PWE; Connecticut 30, TEMPLE 20 (16-30 F)
83.6% PWE; Florida 31, TENNESSEE 13 (31-17 F)
74.3% PWE; FLORIDA STATE (h) 38, BYU 28 (34-10 F)
74.7% PWE; Fresno State 36, UTAH STATE 24 (41-24 F)
72.0% PWE; GEORGIA 33, Arkansas 25 (24-31 F)
55.1% PWE; Georgia Tech 25, NORTH CAROLINA 23 (30-24 F)
59.7% PWE; Houston 30, UCLA 26 (13-31 F)
76.1% PWE; ILLINOIS 30, Northern Illinois 19 (28-22 F)
61.6% PWE; Indiana 33, WESTERN KENTUCKY 28 (38-21 F)
60.9% PWE; Iowa 23, ARIZONA 18 (27-34 F)
67.5% PWE; Kansas State 31, Iowa State 24 (27-20 F)
93.0% PWE; KENTUCKY 33, Akron 10 (47-10 F)
85.3% PWE; LSU 31, Mississippi State 14 (29-7 F)
51.6% PWE; Marshall 25, BOWLING GREEN 24 (28-44 F)
87.6% PWE; MIAMI (OH) 34, Colorado State 15 (31-10 F)
64.4% PWE; Middle Tennessee 27, MEMPHIS 20 (17-24 F)
82.0% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 27, Vanderbilt 12 (14-28 F)
98.1% PWE; MISSOURI 44, San Diego State 12 (27-24 F)
77.2% PWE; Navy 33, LOUISIANA TECH 19 (37-23 F)
66.6% PWE; Nebraska 26, WASHINGTON 18 (56-21 F)
80.5% PWE; Northwestern 34, RICE 18 (30-13 F)
59.5% PWE; Notre Dame 31, MICHIGAN STATE 27 (31-34 F)
98.1% PWE; OHIO STATE 40, Ohio 3 (43-7 F)
92.1% PWE; OKLAHOMA 33, Air Force 10 (27-24 F)
84.8% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 31, Tulsa 14 (65-28 F)
76.7% PWE; OREGON STATE 32, Louisville 21 (35-28 F)
95.9% PWE; PENN STATE 36, Kent State 9 (24-0 F)
76.6% PWE; PURDUE 28, Ball State 17 (24-13 F)
84.7% PWE; SMU 32, Washington State 15 (35-21 F)
58.6% PWE; STANFORD 35, Wake Forest 32 (68-24 F)
95.0% PWE; TCU 35, Baylor 9 (45-10 F)
59.1% PWE; Texas 27, TEXAS TECH 23 (24-14 F)
88.6% PWE; TEXAS A&M 38, Florida International 18 (27-20 F)
68.2% PWE; Troy 33, UAB 24 (33-34 F)
52.5% PWE; UNLV 35, IDAHO (h) 34 (7-30 F)
82.2% PWE; USC 35, MINNESOTA (h) 18 (32-21 F)
89.0% PWE; Utah 33, NEW MEXICO 11 (56-14 F)
83.0% PWE; UTEP 33, New Mexico State 18 (42-10 F)
93.4% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 35, East Carolina 11 (49-27 F)
80.5% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 31, Maryland 17 (31-17 F)
81.8% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 33, Toledo 18 (24-37 F)
73.4% PWE; WISCONSIN 27, Arizona State 18 (20-19 F)

4 comments:

Kyle B said...

Not sure what happened, but isn't Arkansas (not Arkansas State) playing UL Monroe this week?

Also, how much of the weight in the rankings is still based on pre-season projections?

Brian Fremeau said...

No, Arkansas State is playing LA-Monroe. Arkansas is playing Georgia.

Roughly speaking, the pre-season projected data accounts for about 2/3 of each team's rating to date.

Anonymous said...

Am I missing TCU vs. Baylor? Don't see it.

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

LOL, nevermind, saw it three seconds after i put the comment up, after looking for 15 minutes before!