Thursday, December 16, 2010

FEI Forecasts: Bowls (Dec. 18 - Jan. 10)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. All bowl game sites are considered neutral.

Saturday, December 18
69.4% PWE; BYU 28, UTEP 20 (52-24 F)
77.3% PWE; Northern Illinois 33, Fresno State 20 (40-17 F)
57.9% PWE; Troy 25, Ohio 23 (48-21 F)

Tuesday, December 21
71.8% PWE; Louisville 30, Southern Mississippi 21 (31-28 F)

Wednesday, December 22
85.7% PWE; Boise State 31, Utah 13 (26-3 F)

Thursday, December 23
76.9% PWE; Navy 33, San Diego State 21 (14-35 F)

Friday, December 24
52.8% PWE; Hawaii 28, Tulsa 27 (35-62 F)

Sunday, December 26
80.2% PWE; Florida International 31, Toledo 17 (34-32 F)

Monday, December 27
59.1% PWE; Air Force 30, Georgia Tech 27 (14-7 F)

Tuesday, December 28
60.9% PWE; Missouri 24, Iowa 20 (24-27 F)
55.5% PWE; West Virginia 21, North Carolina State 19 (7-23 F)

Wednesday, December 29
80.6% PWE; Illinois 35, Baylor 20 (38-14 F)
84.9% PWE; Maryland 38, East Carolina 21 (51-20 F)
75.9% PWE; Oklahoma State 33, Arizona 21 (36-10 F)

Thursday, December 30
55.9% PWE; Army 27, SMU 25 (16-14 F)
94.9% PWE; Nebraska 37, Washington 11 (7-19 F)
78.9% PWE; North Carolina 31, Tennessee 17 (30-27 F)
50.1% PWE; Syracuse 25, Kansas State 24 (36-34 F)

Friday, December 31
63.2% PWE; Clemson 21, South Florida 16 (26-31 F)
60.1% PWE; Georgia 27, Central Florida 24 (6-10 F)
68.3% PWE; Miami 24, Notre Dame 17 (17-33 F)
58.2% PWE; South Carolina 30, Florida State 27 (17-26 F)

Saturday, January 1
74.9% PWE; Alabama 31, Michigan State 20 (49-7 F)
66.4% PWE; Florida 27, Penn State 21 (37-24 F)
65.1% PWE; Mississippi State 30, Michigan 24 (52-14 F)
87.5% PWE; Oklahoma 32, Connecticut 13 (48-20 F)
51.3% PWE; Texas Tech 27, Northwestern 26 (45-38 F)
59.9% PWE; Wisconsin 27, TCU 24 (19-21 F)

Monday, January 3
52.2% PWE; Virginia Tech 26, Stanford 25 (12-40 F)

Tuesday, January 4
56.9% PWE; Arkansas 26, Ohio State 24 (26-31 F)

Thursday, January 6
66.2% PWE; Middle Tennessee 23, Miami (OH) 17 (21-35 F)

Friday, January 7
70.5% PWE; LSU 26, Texas A&M 17 (41-24 F)

Saturday, January 8
70.1% PWE; Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 23 (27-10 F)

Sunday, January 9
68.3% PWE; Nevada 28, Boston College 21 (20-13 F)

Monday, January 10
69.2% PWE; Auburn 31, Oregon 23 (22-19 F)

8 comments:

HTown said...

I did an analysis of your ratings against the BCS computers in the bowl games:

BCS Computers

Brian Fremeau said...

Thanks for the link.

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