BCF Toys

Moving on up

2011-05-15T22:00:00.000-05:00

I've launched the new home of BCF Toys, a site dedicated to featuring my college football program, team, unit, and schedule ratings, season and game projections, data visualizations and more.

FEI Final 2010 Ratings

2011-01-15T10:00:00.000-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	13-0	.348	41	Northern Illinois	10-3	.074	81	UCLA	4-8	-.078
2	Stanford	11-1	.302	42	Air Force	8-4	.065	82	Iowa State	4-7	-.087
3	Alabama	9-3	.281	43	Syracuse	6-5	.060	83	California	4-7	-.088
4	Oregon	11-1	.267	44	Arizona	6-6	.056	84	UAB	4-8	-.089
5	Virginia Tech	11-2	.249	45	Kentucky	5-7	.053	85	North Texas	3-9	-.091
6	LSU	10-2	.247	46	Oregon State	5-7	.053	86	Fresno State	7-5	-.100
7	Arkansas	9-3	.245	47	Utah	10-3	.052	87	W. Kentucky	2-10	-.102
8	Ohio State	12-1	.234	48	Kansas State	6-6	.046	88	Purdue	3-8	-.102
9	Oklahoma	12-2	.231	49	Connecticut	7-5	.044	89	Indiana	4-7	-.105
10	TCU	12-0	.229	50	Boston College	6-6	.040	90	Middle Tenn.	5-7	-.107
11	Boise State	12-1	.213	51	Southern Miss.	7-5	.018	91	Louisiana Tech	4-7	-.112
12	Wisconsin	10-2	.211	52	Georgia Tech	5-7	.018	92	Kent State	4-7	-.124
13	NC State	8-4	.209	53	Tulsa	9-3	.013	93	Toledo	8-5	-.126
14	West Virginia	8-4	.190	54	Cincinnati	3-8	.007	94	Ohio	7-5	-.128
15	Missouri	9-3	.190	55	Michigan	6-6	.005	95	LA-Monroe	4-7	-.128
16	South Carolina	8-5	.185	56	Penn State	6-6	.004	96	Washington State	1-10	-.129
17	Oklahoma State	11-2	.184	57	FIU	7-6	.003	97	LA-Lafayette	3-9	-.136
18	Florida State	9-4	.182	58	Washington	7-6	-.004	98	Vanderbilt	2-10	-.144
19	Nebraska	9-4	.179	59	Tennessee	5-7	-.013	99	Florida Atlantic	4-8	-.148
20	Pittsburgh	7-5	.168	60	Arkansas State	4-8	-.014	100	Tulane	3-8	-.151
21	Iowa	7-5	.161	61	Army	6-6	-.015	101	UTEP	5-7	-.153
22	Miami	6-6	.143	62	Hawaii	9-4	-.015	102	Idaho	5-7	-.155
23	Notre Dame	8-5	.140	63	Mississippi	4-7	-.015	103	Bowling Green	2-10	-.159
24	Maryland	8-4	.130	64	Troy	8-5	-.017	104	Miami (OH)	10-4	-.159
25	Clemson	5-7	.130	65	Texas Tech	7-5	-.020	105	Wake Forest	2-9	-.161
26	USC	8-5	.124	66	BYU	7-6	-.021	106	Marshall	5-7	-.164
27	Mississippi State	8-4	.123	67	Western Michigan	5-6	-.026	107	Utah State	3-8	-.174
28	Texas A&M	8-4	.120	68	SMU	7-7	-.029	108	Buffalo	1-10	-.188
29	Nevada	12-1	.107	69	Rutgers	3-8	-.030	109	Ball State	3-7	-.194
30	South Florida	7-5	.107	70	Temple	7-4	-.031	110	Kansas	3-8	-.197
31	Louisville	6-6	.102	71	Northwestern	6-6	-.035	111	Wyoming	2-9	-.204
32	Navy	8-4	.102	72	Texas	5-7	-.038	112	Rice	4-8	-.205
33	North Carolina	7-5	.102	73	Baylor	6-6	-.048	113	San Jose State	0-11	-.208
34	Georgia	5-7	.096	74	Houston	4-7	-.049	114	Eastern Michigan	2-10	-.239
35	Illinois	6-6	.090	75	East Carolina	6-7	-.052	115	Akron	1-10	-.241
36	Florida	7-5	.087	76	Minnesota	3-8	-.054	116	UNLV	2-11	-.287
37	Arizona State	4-6	.086	77	Duke	2-9	-.063	117	New Mexico	1-11	-.289
38	Central Florida	10-3	.084	78	Central Michigan	2-9	-.069	118	Memphis	1-11	-.290
39	Michigan State	10-2	.082	79	Colorado	5-7	-.077	119	Colorado State	3-9	-.291
40	San Diego State	8-4	.080	80	Virginia	2-8	-.078	120	N. Mexico State	2-10	-.305

AP Top 25 Scheduling Update

2011-01-12T23:00:00.006-05:00

Year	Teams	Ind	FBS Games	FCS Games	Bowl Games	T25 Games	Pct of Games	T25 Bowls	T25 Conf CG	T25 Conf	T25 Non Conf	T25 vs FCS
1989	106	25	582	50	18	52	8.9%	10	0	19	23	2
1990	107	26	579	67	19	49	8.5%	10	0	21	18	10
1991	107	19	586	53	18	46	7.8%	9	0	16	21	10
1992	107	16	588	49	18	44	7.5%	9	1	25	9	7
1993	106	11	585	47	19	46	7.9%	7	1	27	11	5
1994	107	12	593	43	19	45	7.6%	8	1	27	9	7
1995	108	13	597	43	18	44	7.4%	8	0	25	11	7
1996	111	11	614	48	18	46	7.5%	9	3	24	10	5
1997	112	9	628	38	20	46	7.3%	8	2	29	7	1
1998	112	8	627	47	22	48	7.7%	9	1	26	12	4
1999	114	7	633	53	23	55	8.7%	9	2	36	8	6
2000	115	8	641	55	25	45	7.0%	8	2	27	8	6
2001	117	7	652	57	25	48	7.4%	10	1	28	9	4
2002	117	6	707	65	28	48	6.8%	7	1	25	15	11
2003	117	4	699	72	28	44	6.3%	9	3	24	8	9
2004	117	2	651	56	28	36	5.5%	9	1	20	6	8
2005	119	4	664	54	28	44	6.6%	9	2	27	6	9
2006	119	4	714	78	32	44	6.2%	8	1	27	8	15
2007	119	3	712	80	32	45	6.3%	9	3	29	4	18
2008	120	4	717	87	34	46	6.4%	9	2	27	8	22
2009	120	3	714	94	34	39	5.5%	7	3	23	6	17
2010	120	3	718	90	35	44	6.1%	7	3	29	5	21

Ind - Independent teams; T25 Games - Games played between teams that finished the year ranked in the final AP top-25 poll; T25 Conf CG - Conference championship games played between final AP top-25 teams. Though these games are scheduled before the season, the participants are not known until the end of the regular season; T25 Conf - Conference games between final AP top-25 teams; T25 Non Conf - Non-conference regular season games between AP top-25 teams, including independents.

*** *** *** *** ***

This data was first collected and published in March along with a companion infographic, and has been updated to include the final Associated Press top-25 rankings data for the 2010 college football season. Only five regular season non-conference games were played this year between teams that were ranked in the final AP top-25 poll:

September 6: No. 9 Boise State vs. No. 16 Virginia Tech
September 11: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 17 Florida State
September 11: No. 21 Central Florida vs. No. 25 North Carolina State
September 18: No. 13 Oklahoma State vs. No. 24 Tulsa
October 9: No. 12 Arkansas vs. No. 19 Texas A&M

Adding seven bowl games, a grand total of 12 non-conference games were played between Associated Press final top-25 teams in 2010.

FEI Forecasts: Bowls (Dec. 18 - Jan. 10)

2010-12-16T08:00:00.018-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. All bowl game sites are considered neutral.

Saturday, December 18
69.4% PWE; BYU 28, UTEP 20 (52-24 F)
77.3% PWE; Northern Illinois 33, Fresno State 20 (40-17 F)
57.9% PWE; Troy 25, Ohio 23 (48-21 F)

Tuesday, December 21
71.8% PWE; Louisville 30, Southern Mississippi 21 (31-28 F)

Wednesday, December 22
85.7% PWE; Boise State 31, Utah 13 (26-3 F)

Thursday, December 23
76.9% PWE; Navy 33, San Diego State 21 (14-35 F)

Friday, December 24
52.8% PWE; Hawaii 28, Tulsa 27 (35-62 F)

Sunday, December 26
80.2% PWE; Florida International 31, Toledo 17 (34-32 F)

Monday, December 27
59.1% PWE; Air Force 30, Georgia Tech 27 (14-7 F)

Tuesday, December 28
60.9% PWE; Missouri 24, Iowa 20 (24-27 F)
55.5% PWE; West Virginia 21, North Carolina State 19 (7-23 F)

Wednesday, December 29
80.6% PWE; Illinois 35, Baylor 20 (38-14 F)
84.9% PWE; Maryland 38, East Carolina 21 (51-20 F)
75.9% PWE; Oklahoma State 33, Arizona 21 (36-10 F)

Thursday, December 30
55.9% PWE; Army 27, SMU 25 (16-14 F)
94.9% PWE; Nebraska 37, Washington 11 (7-19 F)
78.9% PWE; North Carolina 31, Tennessee 17 (30-27 F)
50.1% PWE; Syracuse 25, Kansas State 24 (36-34 F)

Friday, December 31
63.2% PWE; Clemson 21, South Florida 16 (26-31 F)
60.1% PWE; Georgia 27, Central Florida 24 (6-10 F)
68.3% PWE; Miami 24, Notre Dame 17 (17-33 F)
58.2% PWE; South Carolina 30, Florida State 27 (17-26 F)

Saturday, January 1
74.9% PWE; Alabama 31, Michigan State 20 (49-7 F)
66.4% PWE; Florida 27, Penn State 21 (37-24 F)
65.1% PWE; Mississippi State 30, Michigan 24 (52-14 F)
87.5% PWE; Oklahoma 32, Connecticut 13 (48-20 F)
51.3% PWE; Texas Tech 27, Northwestern 26 (45-38 F)
59.9% PWE; Wisconsin 27, TCU 24 (19-21 F)

Monday, January 3
52.2% PWE; Virginia Tech 26, Stanford 25 (12-40 F)

Tuesday, January 4
56.9% PWE; Arkansas 26, Ohio State 24 (26-31 F)

Thursday, January 6
66.2% PWE; Middle Tennessee 23, Miami (OH) 17 (21-35 F)

Friday, January 7
70.5% PWE; LSU 26, Texas A&M 17 (41-24 F)

Saturday, January 8
70.1% PWE; Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 23 (27-10 F)

Sunday, January 9
68.3% PWE; Nevada 28, Boston College 21 (20-13 F)

Monday, January 10
69.2% PWE; Auburn 31, Oregon 23 (22-19 F)

Best and Worst Kickers in 2010

2010-12-15T11:00:00.003-05:00

Following up on last week's Lou Groza Finalists infographic, the nation's best and worst place kicking teams according to field goal efficiency (FGE) are provided in the graphic above. Nebraska's Alex Henery was not named a Groza Award finalist, but did receive an Associated Press first-team All-American honor this week.

FEI Ratings: Week 15

2010-12-12T21:00:00.002-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	12-0	.334	41	Northern Illinois	9-3	.062	81	Colorado	5-7	-.073
2	Virginia Tech	11-1	.271	42	Arizona	6-5	.062	82	Virginia	2-8	-.073
3	Stanford	10-1	.265	43	Air Force	7-4	.050	83	UCLA	4-8	-.083
4	Oregon	11-0	.260	44	Michigan	6-5	.048	84	Iowa State	4-7	-.088
5	Alabama	8-3	.258	45	Connecticut	7-4	.048	85	UAB	4-8	-.092
6	Arkansas	9-2	.251	46	Oregon State	5-7	.046	86	North Texas	3-9	-.093
7	Ohio State	11-1	.232	47	Syracuse	5-5	.044	87	California	4-7	-.094
8	Oklahoma	11-2	.231	48	Kansas State	6-5	.044	88	Purdue	3-8	-.096
9	Wisconsin	10-1	.227	49	Utah	10-2	.044	89	Indiana	4-7	-.099
10	LSU	9-2	.226	50	Boston College	6-5	.034	90	W. Kentucky	2-10	-.102
11	Boise State	11-1	.214	51	Georgia Tech	5-6	.023	91	Louisiana Tech	4-7	-.103
12	Nebraska	9-3	.202	52	Penn State	6-5	.019	92	Middle Tenn.	5-6	-.104
13	Missouri	9-2	.198	53	San Diego State	7-4	.019	93	Kent State	4-7	-.113
14	TCU	11-0	.197	54	Southern Miss.	7-4	.010	94	UTEP	5-6	-.128
15	West Virginia	8-3	.197	55	Cincinnati	3-8	.005	95	Toledo	8-4	-.132
16	South Carolina	8-4	.187	56	FIU	6-6	.004	96	LA Monroe	4-7	-.133
17	NC State	7-4	.182	57	Hawaii	9-3	.001	97	Washington State	1-10	-.133
18	Miami	6-5	.176	58	Tulsa	8-3	-.006	98	LA Lafayette	3-9	-.134
19	Oklahoma State	10-2	.173	59	Mississippi	4-7	-.009	99	Vanderbilt	2-10	-.142
20	Iowa	6-5	.164	60	Arkansas State	4-8	-.015	100	Tulane	3-8	-.149
21	Florida State	8-4	.163	61	Army	5-6	-.016	101	Florida Atlantic	4-8	-.149
22	Michigan State	10-1	.152	62	Western Michigan	5-6	-.022	102	Idaho	5-7	-.149
23	Pittsburgh	6-5	.150	63	Temple	7-4	-.023	103	Bowling Green	2-10	-.152
24	Texas A&M	8-3	.146	64	Tennessee	5-6	-.023	104	Marshall	5-7	-.153
25	Navy	8-3	.136	65	Texas Tech	6-5	-.024	105	Wake Forest	2-9	-.161
26	Clemson	5-6	.132	66	Northwestern	6-5	-.027	106	Miami (OH)	9-4	-.162
27	Maryland	7-4	.125	67	Rutgers	3-8	-.032	107	Utah State	3-8	-.174
28	USC	8-5	.120	68	SMU	7-6	-.033	108	Buffalo	1-10	-.183
29	Notre Dame	7-5	.107	69	Texas	5-7	-.035	109	Ball State	3-7	-.191
30	North Carolina	6-5	.106	70	Baylor	6-5	-.041	110	Kansas	3-8	-.194
31	Nevada	11-1	.103	71	East Carolina	6-6	-.041	111	Rice	4-8	-.202
32	Georgia	5-6	.101	72	Troy	7-5	-.047	112	San Jose State	0-11	-.204
33	Mississippi State	7-4	.100	73	Minnesota	3-8	-.048	113	Wyoming	2-9	-.210
34	Illinois	5-6	.098	74	Washington	6-6	-.049	114	Akron	1-10	-.235
35	Louisville	5-6	.098	75	Houston	4-7	-.050	115	Eastern Michigan	2-10	-.236
36	South Florida	6-5	.088	76	BYU	6-6	-.053	116	Memphis	1-11	-.291
37	Florida	6-5	.078	77	Duke	2-9	-.057	117	UNLV	2-11	-.291
38	Arizona State	4-6	.078	78	Fresno State	7-4	-.058	118	New Mexico	1-11	-.293
39	Kentucky	5-6	.071	79	Central Michigan	2-9	-.066	119	Colorado State	3-9	-.295
40	Central Florida	9-3	.070	80	Ohio	7-4	-.069	120	N. Mexico St.	2-10	-.301

FEI Forecasts: Week 15 (Dec. 11)

2010-12-10T17:00:00.002-05:00

FEI Ratings: Week 14

2010-12-08T18:00:00.002-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	12-0	.334	41	Northern Illinois	9-3	.062	81	Colorado	5-7	-.073
2	Virginia Tech	11-1	.271	42	Arizona	6-5	.062	82	Virginia	2-8	-.073
3	Stanford	10-1	.265	43	Air Force	7-4	.050	83	UCLA	4-8	-.083
4	Oregon	11-0	.260	44	Connecticut	7-4	.048	84	Iowa State	4-7	-.088
5	Alabama	8-3	.258	45	Michigan	6-5	.048	85	UAB	4-8	-.092
6	Arkansas	9-2	.251	46	Oregon State	5-7	.046	86	North Texas	3-9	-.093
7	Ohio State	11-1	.232	47	Syracuse	5-5	.045	87	California	4-7	-.094
8	Oklahoma	11-2	.230	48	Kansas State	6-5	.044	88	Purdue	3-8	-.096
9	Wisconsin	10-1	.227	49	Utah	10-2	.044	89	Indiana	4-7	-.099
10	LSU	9-2	.226	50	Boston College	6-5	.034	90	W. Kentucky	2-10	-.102
11	Boise State	11-1	.214	51	Georgia Tech	5-6	.022	91	Louisiana Tech	4-7	-.103
12	Nebraska	9-3	.202	52	Penn State	6-5	.019	92	Middle Tenn.	5-6	-.104
13	Missouri	9-2	.198	53	San Diego State	7-4	.019	93	Kent State	4-7	-.113
14	West Virginia	8-3	.197	54	Southern Miss.	7-4	.010	94	UTEP	5-6	-.128
15	TCU	11-0	.197	55	Cincinnati	3-8	.005	95	Toledo	8-4	-.132
16	South Carolina	8-4	.187	56	FIU	6-6	.004	96	LA-Monroe	4-7	-.133
17	NC State	7-4	.182	57	Hawaii	9-3	.001	97	Washington State	1-10	-.133
18	Miami	6-5	.176	58	Tulsa	8-3	-.006	98	LA-Lafayette	3-9	-.134
19	Oklahoma State	10-2	.173	59	Mississippi	4-7	-.009	99	Vanderbilt	2-10	-.142
20	Iowa	6-5	.164	60	Army	5-5	-.015	100	Tulane	3-8	-.149
21	Florida State	8-4	.163	61	Arkansas State	4-8	-.015	101	Florida Atlantic	4-8	-.149
22	Michigan State	10-1	.153	62	Western Michigan	5-6	-.022	102	Idaho	5-7	-.149
23	Pittsburgh	6-5	.150	63	Temple	7-4	-.022	103	Bowling Green	2-10	-.152
24	Texas A&M	8-3	.145	64	Tennessee	5-6	-.023	104	Marshall	5-7	-.153
25	Navy	7-3	.134	65	Texas Tech	6-5	-.024	105	Wake Forest	2-9	-.161
26	Clemson	5-6	.132	66	Northwestern	6-5	-.027	106	Miami (OH)	9-4	-.161
27	Maryland	7-4	.124	67	Rutgers	3-8	-.032	107	Utah State	3-8	-.174
28	USC	8-5	.120	68	SMU	7-6	-.033	108	Buffalo	1-10	-.182
29	Notre Dame	7-5	.107	69	Texas	5-7	-.035	109	Ball State	3-7	-.191
30	North Carolina	6-5	.106	70	Baylor	6-5	-.041	110	Kansas	3-8	-.194
31	Nevada	11-1	.103	71	East Carolina	6-6	-.041	111	Rice	4-8	-.203
32	Georgia	5-6	.101	72	Troy	7-5	-.047	112	San Jose State	0-11	-.204
33	Mississippi State	7-4	.100	73	Minnesota	3-8	-.048	113	Wyoming	2-9	-.210
34	Illinois	5-6	.098	74	Washington	6-6	-.049	114	Akron	1-10	-.235
35	Louisville	5-6	.098	75	Houston	4-7	-.050	115	Eastern Michigan	2-10	-.236
36	South Florida	6-5	.088	76	BYU	6-6	-.053	116	Memphis	1-11	-.291
37	Florida	6-5	.078	77	Duke	2-9	-.058	117	UNLV	2-11	-.291
38	Arizona State	4-6	.078	78	Fresno State	7-4	-.058	118	New Mexico	1-11	-.293
39	Kentucky	5-6	.071	79	Central Michigan	2-9	-.066	119	Colorado State	3-9	-.295
40	Central Florida	9-3	.070	80	Ohio	7-4	-.069	120	N. Mexico St.	2-10	-.301

Lou Groza Award Finalists

2010-12-08T12:00:00.000-05:00

A field goal is worth three points. But the value of each successful field goal is partially attributed to the offense that moves into field goal range as well as the player that kicks the ball through the uprights. A failed field goal attempt is a forfeiture of scoring value created by the offense. The value of a 47-yard field goal is equally earned by the offense and kicker, 50 percent each. 84 percent of the value of a 27-yard field goal is earned by the offense. 99 percent of the value of a 57-yard field goal is earned by the kicker.

The Lou Groza Award is given annually to the nation’s top collegiate place-kicker as determined by a voting panel of college football coaches and media members. The field goal statistics of the 2010 award finalists are visualized in the graphic above. For each kicker, the number of attempts and successful field goals are included, as well as the total scoring value gained and forfeited on those attempts. Field goal efficiency (FGE) is the average scoring value gained per attempted kick.
A graphic representation of each kick is plotted at the line of scrimmage of the given field goal attempt. The gray area represents the scoring value provided by the offense. The blue area represents the scoring value provided by the kicker. The red area represents the scoring value earned by the offense that was forfeited by the kicker on a failed attempt. Click here for a larger view of the graphic. For more information about the Lou Groza Award, visit http://www.lougrozaaward.com/.

FEI Forecasts: Week 14 (Dec. 2 - 4)

2010-12-02T15:00:00.001-05:00

FEI Ratings: Week 13

2010-12-01T17:00:00.010-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	11-0	.324	41	Arizona State	3-6	.061	81	Ohio	7-4	-.078
2	Alabama	8-3	.263	42	Arizona	6-4	.058	82	UCLA	4-7	-.078
3	Stanford	10-1	.262	43	Air Force	7-4	.050	83	Fresno State	6-4	-.079
4	Arkansas	9-2	.261	44	Oregon State	5-6	.050	84	Iowa State	4-7	-.085
5	Virginia Tech	10-1	.258	45	Syracuse	5-5	.048	85	Louisiana Tech	4-6	-.088
6	Oregon	10-0	.253	46	Kansas State	6-5	.046	86	UAB	4-8	-.093
7	Ohio State	11-1	.232	47	Michigan	6-5	.045	87	North Texas	3-9	-.094
8	LSU	9-2	.229	48	Utah	10-2	.042	88	Purdue	3-8	-.095
9	Wisconsin	10-1	.225	49	Boston College	6-5	.036	89	California	4-7	-.097
10	South Carolina	8-3	.224	50	Connecticut	6-4	.026	90	Indiana	4-7	-.099
11	Oklahoma	10-2	.223	51	Georgia Tech	5-6	.022	91	W. Kentucky	2-10	-.103
12	Boise State	10-1	.221	52	San Diego State	7-4	.020	92	Kent State	4-7	-.118
13	Nebraska	9-2	.204	53	Penn State	6-5	.018	93	Florida Atlantic	4-7	-.121
14	West Virginia	7-3	.199	54	Cincinnati	3-7	.016	94	Middle Tenn.	4-6	-.122
15	TCU	11-0	.198	55	Southern Miss.	7-4	.014	95	UTEP	5-6	-.127
16	Missouri	9-2	.197	56	FIU	6-5	.007	96	Toledo	8-4	-.134
17	NC State	7-4	.188	57	Hawaii	8-3	-.001	97	LA Monroe	4-7	-.136
18	Florida State	8-3	.188	58	Tulsa	8-3	-.006	98	LA Lafayette	3-9	-.136
19	Miami	6-5	.178	59	Mississippi	4-7	-.010	99	Idaho	4-7	-.137
20	Oklahoma State	10-2	.172	60	Army	5-5	-.015	100	Washington State	1-9	-.141
21	Iowa	6-5	.164	61	Arkansas State	4-8	-.017	101	Vanderbilt	2-10	-.141
22	Michigan State	10-1	.155	62	Tennessee	5-6	-.021	102	Tulane	3-8	-.147
23	Texas A&M	8-3	.147	63	Western Michigan	5-6	-.022	103	Marshall	5-7	-.153
24	Pittsburgh	5-5	.141	64	Rutgers	3-7	-.022	104	Bowling Green	2-10	-.157
25	Clemson	5-6	.137	65	Texas Tech	6-5	-.023	105	Wake Forest	2-9	-.160
26	Navy	7-3	.135	66	Northwestern	6-5	-.026	106	Utah State	3-7	-.170
27	Maryland	7-4	.128	67	Temple	7-4	-.030	107	Buffalo	1-10	-.187
28	USC	7-5	.113	68	Texas	5-7	-.031	108	Ball State	3-7	-.192
29	North Carolina	6-5	.112	69	SMU	7-5	-.032	109	Kansas	3-8	-.193
30	Illinois	5-5	.109	70	East Carolina	6-6	-.040	110	Miami (OH)	8-4	-.198
31	Notre Dame	7-5	.105	71	Baylor	6-5	-.040	111	Rice	4-8	-.202
32	Georgia	5-6	.104	72	Minnesota	3-8	-.047	112	Wyoming	2-9	-.209
33	Mississippi State	7-4	.103	73	Houston	4-7	-.049	113	San Jose State	0-10	-.219
34	South Florida	6-4	.102	74	Washington	5-6	-.051	114	Akron	1-10	-.238
35	Louisville	5-6	.098	75	BYU	6-6	-.052	115	Eastern Michigan	2-10	-.238
36	Nevada	10-1	.093	76	Duke	2-9	-.057	116	UNLV	2-10	-.285
37	Florida	6-5	.084	77	Central Michigan	2-9	-.069	117	Memphis	1-11	-.292
38	Northern Illinois	9-2	.079	78	Virginia	2-8	-.071	118	New Mexico	1-11	-.292
39	Kentucky	5-6	.077	79	Colorado	5-7	-.072	119	Colorado State	3-9	-.296
40	Central Florida	8-3	.068	80	Troy	6-5	-.076	120	N. Mexico State	2-10	-.301

FEI Forecasts: Week 13 (Nov. 23 - 27)

2010-11-25T12:00:00.004-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Tuesday, November 23
87.5% PWE; Temple 34, MIAMI (OH) 14 (3-23 F)

Thursday, November 25
81.2% PWE; Texas A&M 28, TEXAS 12 (24-17 F)

Friday, November 26
86.1% PWE; ARIZONA STATE (h) 31, UCLA 13 (55-34 F)
53.7% PWE; Auburn 28, ALABAMA 27 (28-27 F)
82.0% PWE; Boise State 35, NEVADA 18 (31-34 F)
56.5% PWE; Buffalo 21, AKRON 19 (14-22 F)
61.1% PWE; Central Michigan 27, TOLEDO 22 (31-42 F)
61.3% PWE; EAST CAROLINA (h) 34, SMU 30 (38-45 F)
62.1% PWE; Louisville 24, RUTGERS 19 (40-13 F)
97.9% PWE; NEBRASKA 40, Colorado 8 (45-17 F)
94.3% PWE; Northern Illinois 45, EASTERN MICHIGAN 18 (71-3 F)
64.8% PWE; Ohio 24, KENT STATE 17 (6-28 F)
88.1% PWE; OREGON 35, Arizona 16 (48-29 F)
63.7% PWE; PITTSBURGH 24, West Virginia 19 (10-35 F)
51.3% PWE; Southern Mississippi 25, TULSA 24 (50-56 F)
62.6% PWE; Western Michigan 27, BOWLING GREEN 22 (41-7 F)

Saturday, November 27
61.2% PWE; ARKANSAS (h) 28, LSU 24 (31-23 F)
98.5% PWE; Central Florida 42, MEMPHIS 7 (37-17 F)
51.2% PWE; CONNECTICUT 26, Cincinnati 25 (38-17 F)
66.1% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 27, Arkansas State 21 (31-24 F)
71.3% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 28, Florida 20 (31-7 F)
79.6% PWE; FRESNO STATE 33, Idaho 20 (23-20 F)
79.5% PWE; GEORGIA 35, Georgia Tech 22 (42-34 F)
96.0% PWE; Hawaii 40, NEW MEXICO STATE 12 (59-24 F)
92.1% PWE; Iowa 39, MINNESOTA 14 (24-27 F)
75.2% PWE; Kansas State 34, NORTH TEXAS 21 (49-41 F)
72.1% PWE; Kentucky 34, TENNESSEE 23 (14-24 F)
54.2% PWE; LOUISIANA MONROE 24, Louisiana Lafayette 22 (22-23 F)
75.1% PWE; Louisiana Tech 32, SAN JOSE STATE 19 (45-38 F)
58.7% PWE; MARSHALL 24, Tulane 21 (38-23 F)
83.3% PWE; MIAMI 29, South Florida 13 (20-23 F)
70.8% PWE; Michigan State 27, PENN STATE 17 (28-22 F)
52.6% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 22, Florida Atlantic 20 (38-14 F)
83.9% PWE; MISSISSIPPI STATE 28, Mississippi 12 (31-23 F)
98.5% PWE; Missouri 46, Kansas 3 (35-7 F)
82.1% PWE; North Carolina 33, DUKE 16 (24-19 F)
65.6% PWE; North Carolina State 24, MARYLAND 17 (31-38 F)
89.6% PWE; OHIO STATE 41, Michigan 21 (37-7 F)
51.0% PWE; Oklahoma 24, OKLAHOMA STATE 23 (47-41 F)
59.4% PWE; PURDUE 24, Indiana 21 (31-34 F)
98.3% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE (h) 44, UNLV 9 (48-14 F)
56.9% PWE; South Carolina 24, CLEMSON 22 (29-7 F)
87.9% PWE; STANFORD 36, Oregon State 17 (38-0 F)
74.7% PWE; SYRACUSE 24, Boston College 14 (7-16 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU 51, NEW MEXICO (h) 0 (66-17 F)
64.8% PWE; TEXAS TECH 31, Houston 26 (35-20 F)
65.9% PWE; TROY 30, Western Kentucky 24 (28-14 F)
68.4% PWE; UAB 32, RICE (h) 23 (23-28 F)
71.9% PWE; USC 29, Notre Dame 21 (16-20 F)
84.2% PWE; UTAH (h) 30, BYU 14 (17-16 F)
74.4% PWE; VANDERBILT 27, Wake Forest 17 (13-34 F)
98.1% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 47, Virginia 10 (37-7 F)
57.6% PWE; Washington 26, CALIFORNIA 23 (16-13 F)
95.9% PWE; WISCONSIN 42, Northwestern 15 (70-23 F)

FEI Ratings: Week 12

2010-11-24T18:00:00.001-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	10-0	.306	41	Arizona State	2-6	.072	81	Minnesota	2-8	-.072
2	Alabama	8-2	.266	42	Central Florida	7-3	.072	82	BYU	6-5	-.073
3	Virginia Tech	9-1	.264	43	Northern Illinois	8-2	.069	83	Troy	5-5	-.083
4	Stanford	9-1	.259	44	Syracuse	5-4	.064	84	Louisiana Tech	3-6	-.086
5	Oregon	9-0	.253	45	Utah	9-2	.049	85	Iowa State	4-7	-.086
6	Arkansas	8-2	.243	46	Nevada	9-1	.047	86	UAB	4-7	-.093
7	Boise State	10-0	.237	47	Kansas State	5-5	.046	87	California	4-6	-.094
8	LSU	9-1	.236	48	Air Force	7-4	.046	88	Purdue	3-7	-.097
9	Ohio State	10-1	.236	49	Cincinnati	3-6	.034	89	Indiana	3-7	-.099
10	Wisconsin	9-1	.231	50	Penn State	6-4	.028	90	North Texas	3-8	-.105
11	TCU	10-0	.215	51	Georgia Tech	5-5	.018	91	W. Kentucky	2-9	-.105
12	Nebraska	8-2	.208	52	San Diego State	6-4	.015	92	Florida Atlantic	4-6	-.119
13	South Carolina	7-3	.206	53	Connecticut	5-4	.013	93	Vanderbilt	2-9	-.121
14	Missouri	8-2	.205	54	Southern Miss.	7-3	.012	94	Washington State	1-9	-.130
15	Oklahoma	9-2	.202	55	Northwestern	6-4	.008	95	Bowling Green	2-9	-.131
16	NC State	7-3	.192	56	Temple	7-3	.008	96	UTEP	5-6	-.132
17	Miami	6-4	.192	57	Rutgers	3-6	.004	97	Kent State	3-7	-.134
18	Iowa	6-4	.191	58	Boston College	5-5	.001	98	Middle Tenn.	3-6	-.135
19	Oklahoma State	10-1	.173	59	FIU	5-5	.000	99	Toledo	7-4	-.136
20	Pittsburgh	5-4	.169	60	Hawaii	7-3	-.010	100	LA Lafayette	2-9	-.138
21	Florida State	7-3	.161	61	Mississippi	4-6	-.011	101	Marshall	4-7	-.147
22	Michigan State	9-1	.156	62	Army	5-5	-.017	102	Tulane	3-7	-.147
23	West Virginia	6-3	.154	63	Tulsa	7-3	-.018	103	LA Monroe	4-6	-.149
24	Clemson	5-5	.152	64	Arkansas State	4-7	-.023	104	Idaho	4-6	-.162
25	Texas A&M	7-3	.145	65	Texas Tech	5-5	-.031	105	Utah State	3-7	-.180
26	USC	7-4	.130	66	Washington	4-6	-.036	106	Buffalo	1-9	-.182
27	Navy	7-3	.124	67	Ohio	7-3	-.038	107	Wake Forest	1-9	-.182
28	North Carolina	5-5	.120	68	East Carolina	6-5	-.039	108	Ball State	3-7	-.191
29	Florida	6-4	.116	69	Tennessee	4-6	-.040	109	Kansas	3-7	-.201
30	Illinois	5-5	.115	70	Texas	5-6	-.041	110	Rice	3-8	-.208
31	Oregon State	5-5	.110	71	Baylor	6-5	-.041	111	Wyoming	2-9	-.211
32	Georgia	4-6	.110	72	SMU	6-5	-.046	112	Eastern Michigan	2-9	-.215
33	Mississippi State	6-4	.109	73	Western Michigan	4-6	-.047	113	Miami (OH)	7-4	-.218
34	Arizona	6-3	.102	74	Houston	4-6	-.049	114	Akron	0-10	-.235
35	Kentucky	5-5	.095	75	Virginia	2-7	-.056	115	San Jose State	0-9	-.237
36	Maryland	6-4	.092	76	Central Michigan	2-8	-.059	116	UNLV	2-9	-.282
37	Louisville	4-6	.085	77	Colorado	5-6	-.059	117	Memphis	1-10	-.296
38	Notre Dame	6-5	.082	78	UCLA	4-6	-.064	118	New Mexico	1-10	-.302
39	South Florida	5-4	.075	79	Fresno State	5-4	-.070	119	Colorado State	3-9	-.303
40	Michigan	6-4	.074	80	Duke	2-8	-.071	120	N. Mexico State	2-9	-.311

FEI Forecasts: Week 12 (Nov. 16 - 20)

2010-11-18T14:00:00.001-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Tuesday, November 16
80.8% PWE; TEMPLE 31, Ohio 17 (23-31 F)

Wednesday, November 17
53.4% PWE; Bowling Green 25, TOLEDO 24 (14-33 F)
50.2% PWE; Miami (OH) 24, AKRON 23 (19-14 F)

Thursday, November 18
98.5% PWE; Air Force 41, UNLV 7 (35-20 F)
64.9% PWE; WASHINGTON (h) 27, UCLA 22 (24-7 F)

Friday, November 19
97.9% PWE; BOISE STATE 42, Fresno State 10 (51-0 F)

Saturday, November 20
67.2% PWE; Arkansas 28, MISSISSIPPI STATE 20 (38-31 F)
76.1% PWE; BOSTON COLLEGE 28, Virginia 17 (17-13 F)
69.5% PWE; BUFFALO 27, Eastern Michigan 20 (17-21 F)
96.2% PWE; BYU 36, New Mexico 9 (40-7 F)
80.2% PWE; Central Florida 33, TULANE 17 (61-14 F)
54.1% PWE; CINCINNATI 21, Rutgers 19 (69-38 F)
98.5% PWE; Clemson 40, WAKE FOREST 7 (30-10 F)
87.0% PWE; East Carolina 44, RICE 24 (38-62 F)
74.3% PWE; Florida International 30, LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 18 (38-17 F)
50.6% PWE; Florida State 26, MARYLAND 25 (30-16 F)
79.8% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 33, Duke 20 (30-20 F)
97.3% PWE; HAWAII 42, San Jose State 12 (41-7 F)
60.5% PWE; Illinois 27, NORTHWESTERN 23 (48-27 F)
55.6% PWE; IOWA 24, Ohio State 21 (17-20 F)
70.5% PWE; Kansas State 31, COLORADO 21 (36-44 F)
97.9% PWE; LSU 38, Mississippi 7 (43-36 F)
98.3% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 37, Purdue 3 (35-31 F)
95.5% PWE; Missouri 40, IOWA STATE 12 (14-0 F)
84.9% PWE; NAVY 37, Arkansas State 20 (35-19 F)
65.4% PWE; Nebraska 27, TEXAS A&M 20 (6-9 F)
98.5% PWE; NEVADA 50, New Mexico State 6 (52-6 F)
55.1% PWE; North Carolina State 23, NORTH CAROLINA 21 (29-25 F)
56.5% PWE; North Texas 23, LOUISIANA MONROE 21 (37-49 F)
90.7% PWE; Northern Illinois 40, BALL STATE 17 (59-21 F)
60.0% PWE; Notre Dame 30, Army 27 (27-3 F)
83.7% PWE; Oklahoma 38, BAYLOR 20 (53-24 F)
98.5% PWE; Oklahoma State 44, KANSAS 7 (48-14 F)
77.8% PWE; Penn State 30, Indiana 17 (41-24 F)
60.9% PWE; Pittsburgh 26, SOUTH FLORIDA 21 (17-10 F)
54.3% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE 23, Utah 21 (34-38 F)
84.7% PWE; SMU 31, Marshall 14 (31-17 F)
94.4% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA 39, Troy 14 (69-24 F)
65.9% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 29, Houston 23 (59-41 F)
93.8% PWE; Stanford 35, CALIFORNIA 9 (48-14 F)
86.0% PWE; SYRACUSE 32, Connecticut 14 (6-23 F)
60.8% PWE; Tennessee 26, VANDERBILT 21 (24-10 F)
69.1% PWE; TEXAS 23, Florida Atlantic 16 (51-17 F)
88.6% PWE; TULSA (h) 37, UTEP 17 (31-28 F)
96.6% PWE; UAB 40, Memphis 12 (31-15 F)
61.8% PWE; USC 33, OREGON STATE (h) 28 (7-36 F)
69.0% PWE; UTAH STATE 31, Idaho 24 (6-28 F)
51.8% PWE; Virginia Tech 24, MIAMI 23 (31-17 F)
56.0% PWE; West Virginia 22, LOUISVILLE 20 (17-10 F)
67.9% PWE; WESTERN KENTUCKY 27, Middle Tennessee 20 (26-27 F)
71.2% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 24, Kent State 16 (38-3 F)
71.8% PWE; Wisconsin 41, MICHIGAN 30 (48-28 F)
74.9% PWE; WYOMING 31, Colorado State 21 (44-0 F)

FEI Ratings: Week 11

2010-11-17T15:00:00.002-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	10-0	.301	41	Michigan	6-3	.075	81	BYU	5-5	-.074
2	Oregon	9-0	.266	42	Nevada	8-1	.073	82	Duke	2-7	-.075
3	Alabama	8-2	.258	43	Central Florida	6-3	.060	83	UAB	3-7	-.077
4	Stanford	8-1	.254	44	Air Force	6-4	.057	84	Ohio	6-3	-.078
5	LSU	8-1	.246	45	Northern Illinois	7-2	.056	85	Minnesota	2-8	-.078
6	Virginia Tech	8-1	.239	46	Kansas State	5-4	.055	86	Louisiana Tech	3-6	-.085
7	Boise State	9-0	.231	47	Notre Dame	5-5	.055	87	North Texas	3-7	-.086
8	Arkansas	7-2	.220	48	Rutgers	3-5	.032	88	Florida Atlantic	4-5	-.088
9	Nebraska	8-1	.214	49	Utah	8-2	.028	89	Indiana	3-6	-.097
10	TCU	10-0	.211	50	Penn State	5-4	.026	90	Iowa State	4-6	-.100
11	Wisconsin	8-1	.209	51	Army	5-4	.024	91	W. Kentucky	2-8	-.102
12	Miami	6-3	.207	52	Temple	7-2	.022	92	Kent State	3-6	-.112
13	Ohio State	9-1	.204	53	Cincinnati	2-6	.020	93	Tulane	3-6	-.119
14	Iowa	6-3	.197	54	Georgia Tech	4-5	.019	94	Bowling Green	2-8	-.121
15	Missouri	7-2	.196	55	Northwestern	6-3	.018	95	Washington State	1-9	-.123
16	South Carolina	6-3	.187	56	San Diego State	6-3	.017	96	Vanderbilt	2-8	-.127
17	Oklahoma State	9-1	.183	57	FIU	4-5	.015	97	Purdue	3-6	-.128
18	Oklahoma	8-2	.180	58	Hawaii	6-3	.013	98	Middle Tenn.	2-6	-.131
19	NC State	6-3	.172	59	Boston College	4-5	.004	99	LA Lafayette	2-8	-.132
20	USC	7-3	.172	60	Tulsa	6-3	-.001	100	LA Monroe	3-6	-.139
21	Pittsburgh	4-4	.163	61	Arkansas State	4-6	-.005	101	Utah State	3-6	-.152
22	Michigan State	8-1	.162	62	East Carolina	6-4	-.005	102	UTEP	5-5	-.154
23	Clemson	4-5	.159	63	Southern Miss.	6-3	-.008	103	Toledo	6-4	-.160
24	West Virginia	5-3	.136	64	Troy	5-4	-.018	104	Marshall	4-6	-.163
25	Florida State	6-3	.136	65	Mississippi	4-5	-.021	105	Idaho	3-6	-.186
26	North Carolina	5-4	.126	66	Baylor	6-4	-.021	106	Wake Forest	1-8	-.187
27	Navy	6-3	.122	67	California	4-5	-.024	107	Buffalo	1-8	-.188
28	Texas A&M	6-3	.115	68	Houston	4-5	-.030	108	Ball State	3-6	-.195
29	Florida	6-4	.112	69	Washington	3-6	-.033	109	Kansas	3-6	-.204
30	Mississippi State	6-3	.111	70	Texas Tech	5-5	-.035	110	Miami (OH)	6-4	-.218
31	Arizona	6-3	.110	71	SMU	5-5	-.037	111	Eastern Michigan	1-9	-.225
32	Maryland	6-3	.108	72	Fresno State	5-3	-.037	112	Wyoming	1-9	-.227
33	Georgia	4-6	.103	73	Connecticut	4-4	-.037	113	Rice	2-8	-.228
34	Syracuse	5-3	.097	74	UCLA	4-5	-.052	114	San Jose State	0-8	-.236
35	Oregon State	4-5	.092	75	Tennessee	3-6	-.052	115	Akron	0-9	-.244
36	Illinois	4-5	.091	76	Texas	4-6	-.053	116	Colorado State	3-8	-.291
37	Kentucky	5-5	.089	77	Central Michigan	2-8	-.064	117	UNLV	2-8	-.301
38	South Florida	5-3	.088	78	Virginia	2-6	-.067	118	New Mexico	1-9	-.302
39	Louisville	4-5	.085	79	Western Michigan	3-6	-.068	119	Memphis	1-9	-.312
40	Arizona State	2-6	.080	80	Colorado	4-6	-.071	120	N. Mexico St.	2-8	-.316

FEI Forecasts: Week 11 (Nov. 9 - 13)

2010-11-11T15:00:00.015-05:00

91.6% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 35, Toledo 13 (65-30 F)

Wednesday, November 10
81.8% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 31, Miami (OH) 16 (21-24 F)

Thursday, November 11

56.2% PWE; East Carolina 32, UAB 30 (54-42 F)
91.3% PWE; Pittsburgh 37, CONNECTICUT 13 (28-30 F)

Friday, November 12

98.5% PWE; Boise State 46, IDAHO 7 (52-14 F)

71.9% PWE; BUFFALO 25, Ball State 17 (3-20 F)

Saturday, November 13

98.5% PWE; AIR FORCE 48, New Mexico 6 (48-23 F)
78.9% PWE; ALABAMA 28, Mississippi State 15 (30-10 F)
51.2% PWE; ARIZONA (h) 30, USC 29 (21-24 F)

98.5% PWE; ARKANSAS (h) 49, UTEP 10 (58-21 F)
83.9% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 36, Western Kentucky 20 (35-36 F)
69.3% PWE; Army 27, KENT STATE 18 (45-28 F)
94.7% PWE; AUBURN 39, Georgia 14 (49-31 F)

62.4% PWE; Boston College 25, DUKE 19 (21-16 F)
73.4% PWE; BYU 28, COLORADO STATE (h) 16 (49-10 F)
91.8% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 33, Southern Mississippi 11 (21-31 F)
57.0% PWE; Clemson 25, FLORIDA STATE 23 (13-16 F)
54.6% PWE; COLORADO 28, Iowa State 26 (34-14 F)
51.3% PWE; FLORIDA 26, South Carolina 25 (14-36 F)
75.1% PWE; FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27, Louisiana Lafayette 17 (24-23 F)
58.1% PWE; HOUSTON 31, Tulsa 28 (25-28 F)
96.5% PWE; ILLINOIS 38, Minnesota 10 (34-38 F)
91.6% PWE; Iowa 38, NORTHWESTERN 14 (17-21 F)
95.5% PWE; KENTUCKY 38, Vanderbilt 12 (38-20 F)

91.2% PWE; Louisiana Tech 36, NEW MEXICO STATE 12 (41-20 F)
66.4% PWE; LOUISVILLE 26, South Florida 20 (21-24 F)
98.5% PWE; LSU 44, Louisiana Monroe 0 (51-0 F)
91.9% PWE; MARSHALL 34, Memphis 12 (28-13 F)
75.2% PWE; Maryland 31, VIRGINIA 18 (42-23 F)
75.9% PWE; Miami 31, GEORGIA TECH 18 (35-10 F)
89.7% PWE; Michigan 42, PURDUE 20 (27-16 F)
66.6% PWE; Mississippi 28, TENNESSEE 20 (14-52 F)

84.2% PWE; MISSOURI 33, Kansas State 17 (38-28 F)
95.8% PWE; NAVY 37, Central Michigan 10 (38-37 F)
98.5% PWE; NEBRASKA 53, Kansas 0 (20-3 F)
69.8% PWE; Nevada 34, FRESNO STATE 24 (35-34 F)
98.5% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA STATE 45, Wake Forest 3 (38-3 F)
55.4% PWE; North Texas 23, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 21 (23-17 F)
92.3% PWE; OHIO STATE 35, Penn State 12 (38-14 F)
89.7% PWE; OKLAHOMA 35, Texas Tech 15 (45-7 F)
80.5% PWE; Oklahoma State 29, TEXAS 13 (33-16 F)
97.3% PWE; Oregon 38, CALIFORNIA 8 (15-13 F)
98.3% PWE; OREGON STATE 48, Washington State 12 (14-31 F)
80.5% PWE; Stanford 32, ARIZONA STATE 16 (17-13 F)
59.5% PWE; Syracuse 21, RUTGERS 17 (13-10 F)
97.5% PWE; TCU 39, San Diego State 9 (40-35 F)
67.7% PWE; Texas A&M 31, BAYLOR 23 (42-30 F)
62.2% PWE; TROY 27, Florida International 23 (35-52 F)

86.1% PWE; TULANE 35, Rice 17 (54-49 F)
59.4% PWE; Utah 25, NOTRE DAME 21 (3-28 F)
65.7% PWE; Utah State 30, SAN JOSE STATE 23 (38-34 F)
61.3% PWE; Virginia Tech 28, NORTH CAROLINA 23 (26-10 F)
75.1% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 27, Cincinnati 17 (37-10 F)
91.1% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 37, Eastern Michigan 15 (45-30 F)
96.4% PWE; WISCONSIN 42, Indiana 14 (83-20 F)
66.2% PWE; Wyoming 28, UNLV 20 (16-42 F)

FEI Ratings: Week 10

2010-11-10T16:00:00.002-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	9-0	.314	41	Michigan	5-3	.078	81	Ohio	6-3	-.075
2	Oregon	8-0	.267	42	Syracuse	4-3	.078	82	Louisiana Tech	2-6	-.080
3	LSU	7-1	.264	43	Nevada	7-1	.071	83	Florida Atlantic	3-5	-.081
4	TCU	9-0	.249	44	Air Force	5-4	.071	84	Duke	2-6	-.084
5	Nebraska	7-1	.247	45	Arizona State	2-5	.065	85	Tennessee	2-6	-.087
6	Stanford	7-1	.247	46	South Florida	4-3	.058	86	Connecticut	3-4	-.087
7	Boise State	8-0	.243	47	Georgia Tech	4-4	.046	87	North Texas	2-7	-.092
8	Alabama	7-2	.242	48	Northern Illinois	6-2	.040	88	Central Michigan	2-7	-.095
9	Iowa	6-2	.221	49	Cincinnati	2-5	.038	89	BYU	4-5	-.103
10	Virginia Tech	7-1	.220	50	Penn State	5-3	.021	90	Tulane	2-6	-.107
11	Arkansas	6-2	.217	51	Notre Dame	4-5	.021	91	Kent State	3-5	-.108
12	Ohio State	8-1	.205	52	Mississippi	4-4	.019	92	W. Kentucky	1-8	-.114
13	Missouri	6-2	.204	53	Texas Tech	5-4	.017	93	UTEP	5-4	-.120
14	Miami	5-3	.201	54	Army	4-4	.012	94	Bowling Green	2-7	-.121
15	NC State	5-3	.190	55	Temple	7-2	.010	95	Minnesota	1-8	-.122
16	Wisconsin	7-1	.190	56	Rutgers	3-4	.010	96	LA Monroe	3-5	-.123
17	Oklahoma State	8-1	.182	57	Hawaii	6-3	.010	97	Vanderbilt	2-7	-.127
18	Oklahoma	7-2	.179	58	Arkansas State	4-5	.006	98	Toledo	6-3	-.138
19	Pittsburgh	4-3	.169	59	Texas	4-5	.001	99	Middle Tenn.	2-5	-.140
20	Clemson	4-4	.169	60	Baylor	6-3	.000	100	LA Lafayette	2-7	-.146
21	Mississippi State	6-2	.154	61	Troy	5-3	-.001	101	Marshall	3-6	-.151
22	Michigan State	8-1	.151	62	Boston College	3-5	-.001	102	Utah State	2-6	-.154
23	South Carolina	5-3	.144	63	San Diego State	6-2	-.005	103	Idaho	3-5	-.157
24	North Carolina	5-3	.143	64	FIU	3-5	-.011	104	Purdue	3-5	-.165
25	USC	6-3	.140	65	Tulsa	5-3	-.022	105	Washington State	0-9	-.171
26	Oregon State	4-4	.140	66	Houston	4-4	-.023	106	Buffalo	1-7	-.172
27	Navy	5-3	.127	67	East Carolina	5-4	-.023	107	Wake Forest	1-7	-.178
28	Florida	6-3	.123	68	Washington	3-6	-.033	108	Wyoming	1-8	-.199
29	Arizona	6-2	.120	69	SMU	5-5	-.034	109	Ball State	2-6	-.219
30	Florida State	5-3	.114	70	UCLA	4-5	-.037	110	Kansas	3-5	-.220
31	Texas A&M	5-3	.112	71	Northwestern	5-3	-.038	111	Miami (OH)	5-4	-.227
32	Illinois	4-4	.111	72	Indiana	3-5	-.041	112	Eastern Michigan	1-8	-.238
33	Central Florida	6-2	.109	73	California	4-4	-.048	113	Rice	2-7	-.242
34	Georgia	4-5	.106	74	Fresno State	5-2	-.052	114	Akron	0-9	-.243
35	West Virginia	4-3	.103	75	Virginia	2-5	-.059	115	Colorado State	3-7	-.245
36	Maryland	5-3	.093	76	Iowa State	4-5	-.064	116	San Jose State	0-7	-.255
37	Kentucky	4-5	.091	77	Western Michigan	2-6	-.065	117	New Mexico	1-8	-.296
38	Utah	8-1	.088	78	Southern Miss.	5-3	-.071	118	UNLV	1-8	-.302
39	Louisville	4-4	.082	79	Colorado	3-6	-.074	119	Memphis	1-8	-.331
40	Kansas State	5-3	.082	80	UAB	3-6	-.075	120	N. Mexico St.	2-7	-.336

FEI Forecasts: Week 10 (Nov. 2 - 6)

2010-11-04T16:00:00.003-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Tuesday, November 2
84.6% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 31, Middle Tennessee 14 (51-24 F)

Wednesday, November 3
75.3% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 24, Rutgers 14 (28-27 F)

Thursday, November 4
78.8% PWE; OHIO 26, Buffalo 13 (34-17 F)
94.9% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 40, Georgia Tech 14 (28-21 F)

Friday, November 5
72.5% PWE; Central Florida 31, HOUSTON 20 (40-33 F)
50.3% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 22, Western Michigan 21 (26-22 F)

Saturday, November 6
62.6% PWE; ARMY 31, Air Force 26 (22-42 F)
73.9% PWE; BALL STATE 30, Akron 20 (37-30 F)
90.3% PWE; BOISE STATE 35, Hawaii 14 (42-7 F)
83.3% PWE; Boston College 31, WAKE FOREST 13 (23-13 F)
88.3% PWE; BYU (h) 31, UNLV 12 (55-7 F)
73.7% PWE; California 33, WASHINGTON STATE 21 (20-13 F)
83.4% PWE; Colorado 32, KANSAS 14 (45-52 F)
85.9% PWE; Florida 31, VANDERBILT 12 (55-14 F)
55.9% PWE; Florida Atlantic 28, WESTERN KENTUCKY 26 (17-16 F)
87.1% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 30, Louisiana Monroe 12 (42-35 F)
59.0% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 28, North Carolina 24 (35-37 F)
50.6% PWE; Fresno State 24, LOUISIANA TECH 23 (40-34 F)
55.3% PWE; Illinois 30, MICHIGAN 28 (65-67 F)
96.3% PWE; Iowa 40, INDIANA 11 (18-13 F)
50.6% PWE; KANSAS STATE 23, Texas 22 (39-14 F)
59.6% PWE; LSU 27, Alabama 23 (24-21 F)
82.3% PWE; MIAMI 29, Maryland 14 (26-20 F)
97.9% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 41, Minnesota 10 (31-8 F)
92.7% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 36, Louisiana Lafayette 13 (43-21 F)
90.2% PWE; Missouri 36, TEXAS TECH 14 (17-24 F)
65.5% PWE; Navy 35, EAST CAROLINA 28 (76-35 F)
98.5% PWE; Nebraska 44, IOWA STATE 11 (31-30 F)
82.8% PWE; Nevada 36, IDAHO 19 (63-17 F)
57.2% PWE; North Carolina State 23, CLEMSON 20 (13-14 F)
75.5% PWE; Oklahoma 30, TEXAS A&M 17 (19-33 F)
83.1% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 38, Baylor 22 (55-28 F)
98.1% PWE; OREGON 42, Washington 9 (53-16 F)
88.7% PWE; Oregon State 38, UCLA 17 (14-17 F)
68.0% PWE; PENN STATE 27, Northwestern 20 (35-21 F)
98.3% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE 41, Colorado State 8 (24-19 F)
72.7% PWE; SMU 31, UTEP (h) 20 (14-28 F)
78.0% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA 34, Arkansas 22 (20-41 F)
53.0% PWE; Southern Mississippi 24, TULANE 23 (46-30 F)
69.7% PWE; STANFORD 28, Arizona 21 (42-17 F)
71.7% PWE; SYRACUSE 27, Louisville 19 (20-28 F)
60.8% PWE; TCU 24, UTAH (h) 19 (47-7 F)
67.0% PWE; Temple 26, KENT STATE 18 (28-10 F)
89.0% PWE; Tennessee 37, MEMPHIS 15 (50-14 F)
63.9% PWE; Troy 26, NORTH TEXAS 20 (41-35 F)
91.2% PWE; TULSA 39, Rice 17 (64-27 F)
84.0% PWE; UAB 32, Marshall 16 (17-31 F)
81.3% PWE; USC 34, Arizona State 20 (34-33 F)
97.0% PWE; UTAH STATE 43, New Mexico State 14 (27-22 F)
50.2% PWE; Virginia 24, DUKE 23 (48-55 F)
98.5% PWE; Wisconsin 44, PURDUE 8 (34-13 F)
64.5% PWE; Wyoming 27, NEW MEXICO 20 (31-34 F)

FEI Ratings: Week 9

2010-11-03T16:00:00.002-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	9-0	.305	41	South Florida	3-3	.064	81	Ohio	5-3	-.080
2	Oregon	7-0	.273	42	Arizona State	2-4	.059	82	Florida Atlantic	2-5	-.081
3	Nebraska	6-1	.263	43	Michigan	4-3	.058	83	Iowa State	4-4	-.085
4	Boise State	7-0	.244	44	Texas	4-4	.056	84	Connecticut	3-4	-.086
5	Iowa	5-2	.237	45	Texas A&M	4-3	.054	85	Tennessee	1-6	-.089
6	LSU	6-1	.236	46	Louisville	3-4	.053	86	Central Michigan	1-7	-.090
7	Alabama	7-1	.233	47	Army	4-3	.047	87	Duke	1-6	-.094
8	Virginia Tech	6-1	.233	48	Northern Illinois	6-2	.039	88	Vanderbilt	2-6	-.098
9	Missouri	6-1	.230	49	Cincinnati	2-5	.038	89	Kent State	3-4	-.102
10	South Carolina	5-2	.225	50	Air Force	4-4	.036	90	North Texas	2-6	-.102
11	Stanford	6-1	.225	51	Kansas State	4-3	.033	91	Minnesota	1-7	-.108
12	TCU	8-0	.223	52	Baylor	6-2	.030	92	BYU	3-5	-.113
13	Wisconsin	6-1	.213	53	Mississippi	3-4	.028	93	Tulane	2-5	-.113
14	Oklahoma	7-1	.208	54	Georgia Tech	4-3	.023	94	Bowling Green	2-7	-.124
15	Ohio State	8-1	.199	55	San Diego State	5-2	.022	95	Idaho	3-4	-.125
16	NC State	5-2	.191	56	Notre Dame	4-5	.017	96	Utah State	1-6	-.126
17	Arizona	6-1	.187	57	Penn State	4-3	.010	97	Toledo	6-3	-.128
18	Miami	4-3	.186	58	Temple	6-2	.006	98	W. Kentucky	1-7	-.131
19	Oregon State	4-3	.175	59	East Carolina	5-3	.002	99	Middle Tenn.	2-4	-.135
20	Pittsburgh	4-3	.172	60	Boston College	2-5	-.001	100	LA Monroe	3-4	-.151
21	USC	5-3	.163	61	Rutgers	3-3	-.002	101	UTEP	4-4	-.151
22	Michigan State	7-1	.157	62	Washington	3-5	-.004	102	LA Lafayette	2-6	-.160
23	Mississippi State	6-2	.155	63	FIU	2-5	-.008	103	Purdue	3-4	-.163
24	Utah	8-0	.148	64	Arkansas State	3-5	-.009	104	Buffalo	1-6	-.168
25	Oklahoma State	7-1	.145	65	Troy	4-3	-.011	105	Marshall	2-6	-.179
26	Arkansas	5-2	.143	66	SMU	5-4	-.013	106	Washington State	0-8	-.181
27	Clemson	3-4	.134	67	Texas Tech	4-4	-.017	107	Wyoming	1-7	-.199
28	Florida	5-3	.117	68	Northwestern	5-2	-.020	108	Ball State	1-6	-.199
29	Georgia	4-5	.113	69	Houston	4-3	-.029	109	Wake Forest	1-6	-.200
30	Florida State	5-2	.111	70	California	3-4	-.038	110	Rice	2-6	-.212
31	North Carolina	4-3	.110	71	Tulsa	4-3	-.038	111	Miami (OH)	5-4	-.225
32	Central Florida	5-2	.108	72	Fresno State	4-2	-.049	112	Eastern Michigan	1-8	-.230
33	Illinois	4-3	.105	73	Colorado	3-5	-.049	113	Kansas	2-5	-.248
34	West Virginia	4-3	.104	74	UAB	3-5	-.058	114	San Jose State	0-7	-.252
35	Navy	4-3	.102	75	UCLA	3-5	-.061	115	Akron	0-8	-.257
36	Syracuse	4-2	.100	76	Western Michigan	2-5	-.066	116	Colorado State	3-6	-.263
37	Kentucky	4-5	.098	77	Indiana	3-4	-.067	117	UNLV	1-7	-.265
38	Hawaii	6-2	.078	78	Virginia	2-4	-.068	118	New Mexico	0-8	-.294
39	Maryland	5-2	.076	79	Southern Miss.	4-3	-.076	119	Memphis	1-7	-.327
40	Nevada	6-1	.071	80	Louisiana Tech	2-5	-.076	120	N. Mexico St.	2-6	-.368

FEI Forecasts: Week 9 (Oct. 26 - 30)

2010-10-28T17:00:00.003-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Tuesday, October 26
98.3% PWE; BOISE STATE 42, Louisiana Tech 8 (49-20 F)

Thursday, October 28
79.7% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA STATE 31, Florida State 18 (28-24 F)

Friday, October 29
87.9% PWE; West Virginia 33, CONNECTICUT 12 (13-16 F)

Saturday, October 30
94.8% PWE; Arizona 37, UCLA 10 (29-21 F)
95.4% PWE; ARIZONA STATE 40, Washington State 14 (42-0 F)
94.3% PWE; ARKANSAS 38, Vanderbilt 13 (49-14 F)
90.7% PWE; Auburn 35, MISSISSIPPI 12 (51-31 F)
75.5% PWE; BUFFALO 27, Miami (OH) 16 (9-21 F)
77.7% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 31, East Carolina 19 (49-35 F)
70.8% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 28, Bowling Green 20 (14-17 F)
67.8% PWE; CINCINNATI 28, Syracuse 21 (7-31 F)
83.0% PWE; Clemson 29, BOSTON COLLEGE 12 (10-16 F)
63.1% PWE; COLORADO STATE 23, New Mexico 19 (38-14 F)
67.4% PWE; Florida International 28, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 20 (9-21 F)
60.0% PWE; Georgia 26, Florida 23 (31-34 F)
89.9% PWE; HAWAII 38, Idaho 17 (45-10 F)
82.3% PWE; Houston 33, MEMPHIS 17 (56-17 F)
95.4% PWE; ILLINOIS 33, Purdue 7 (44-10 F)
92.7% PWE; IOWA STATE 38, Kansas 15 (28-16 F)
78.2% PWE; KENT STATE 27, Ball State 15 (33-14 F)
59.0% PWE; MARSHALL (h) 28, UTEP 24 (16-12 F)
97.1% PWE; MARYLAND 40, Wake Forest 11 (62-14 F)
98.5% PWE; Miami 39, VIRGINIA 7 (19-24 F)
65.6% PWE; Michigan 31, PENN STATE 24 (31-41 F)
52.8% PWE; Michigan State 24, IOWA 23 (6-37 F)
65.0% PWE; MISSISSIPPI STATE 28, Kentucky 23 (24-17 F)
98.2% PWE; NAVY 41, Duke 8 (31-34 F)
53.3% PWE; NEBRASKA 23, Missouri 21 (31-17 F)
95.6% PWE; NEVADA 40, Utah State 13 (56-42 F)
65.9% PWE; Northern Illinois 27, WESTERN MICHIGAN 20 (28-21 F)
59.6% PWE; Northwestern 31, INDIANA 27 (20-17 F)
77.6% PWE; NOTRE DAME 35, Tulsa 23 (27-28 F)
82.0% PWE; OHIO 28, Louisiana Lafayette 13 (38-31 F)
95.1% PWE; Ohio State 41, MINNESOTA 14 (52-10 F)
95.6% PWE; OKLAHOMA 36, Colorado 10 (43-10 F)
67.6% PWE; Oklahoma State 32, KANSAS STATE 24 (24-14 F)
87.2% PWE; OREGON STATE 39, California 20 (35-7 F)
71.3% PWE; PITTSBURGH 30, Louisville 22 (20-3 F)
92.9% PWE; San Diego State 38, WYOMING 13 (48-38 F)
64.2% PWE; San Jose State 28, NEW MEXICO STATE 22 (27-29 F)
65.9% PWE; SMU 29, TULANE (h) 22 (31-17 F)
98.5% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA 49, Tennessee 7 (38-24 F)
57.8% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (h) 24, UAB 21 (49-50 F)
76.4% PWE; Stanford 34, WASHINGTON 21 (41-0 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU 48, UNLV (h) 0 (48-6 F)
98.0% PWE; TEMPLE 44, Akron 12 (30-0 F)
76.5% PWE; TEXAS 31, Baylor 20 (22-30 F)
67.6% PWE; TEXAS A&M 24, Texas Tech 18 (45-27 F)
61.0% PWE; Toledo 31, EASTERN MICHIGAN 26 (42-7 F)
83.7% PWE; Troy 33, LOUISIANA MONROE 15 (14-28 F)
51.3% PWE; USC 28, Oregon 27 (32-53 F)
63.2% PWE; Utah 29, AIR FORCE 23 (28-23 F)
67.6% PWE; WESTERN KENTUCKY 30, North Texas 24 (6-33 F)

FEI Ratings: Week 8

2010-10-27T18:00:00.001-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	8-0	.308	41	Arizona State	1-4	.071	81	Iowa State	3-4	-.077
2	Missouri	6-0	.259	42	Texas	4-3	.071	82	Indiana	3-3	-.078
3	South Carolina	4-2	.251	43	Michigan	4-2	.070	83	Houston	3-3	-.085
4	Boise State	6-0	.251	44	South Florida	3-3	.065	84	Minnesota	1-6	-.087
5	Nebraska	5-1	.245	45	Maryland	4-2	.063	85	Central Michigan	1-6	-.093
6	Oregon	6-0	.239	46	Mississippi	3-3	.057	86	BYU	3-5	-.095
7	TCU	7-0	.231	47	Washington	3-4	.057	87	W. Kentucky	1-6	-.111
8	LSU	6-1	.227	48	Syracuse	3-2	.054	88	Tennessee	1-5	-.113
9	Virginia Tech	6-1	.221	49	San Diego State	4-2	.048	89	Connecticut	2-4	-.113
10	Michigan State	7-0	.220	50	Air Force	4-3	.042	90	Utah State	1-5	-.114
11	USC	5-2	.218	51	Texas A&M	3-3	.039	91	Florida Atlantic	1-5	-.114
12	Alabama	7-1	.217	52	California	3-3	.039	92	Kent State	2-4	-.118
13	Oklahoma	6-1	.216	53	Northern Illinois	5-2	.032	93	Purdue	3-3	-.125
14	Stanford	5-1	.215	54	Army	4-3	.028	94	Tulane	2-4	-.130
15	Arizona	5-1	.213	55	Kansas State	4-2	.020	95	Middle Tenn.	2-4	-.135
16	Wisconsin	6-1	.212	56	Troy	4-2	.014	96	Bowling Green	1-7	-.136
17	Ohio State	7-1	.204	57	Notre Dame	4-4	.011	97	Virginia	1-4	-.138
18	Miami	4-2	.201	58	Texas Tech	4-3	.010	98	North Texas	1-6	-.140
19	Iowa	4-2	.184	59	Georgia Tech	4-3	.010	99	Toledo	5-3	-.145
20	Oregon State	3-3	.182	60	East Carolina	5-2	.009	100	Washington State	0-7	-.146
21	NC State	4-2	.181	61	Temple	5-2	-.001	101	Duke	0-6	-.147
22	Clemson	3-3	.148	62	Baylor	5-2	-.003	102	Buffalo	1-5	-.170
23	Arkansas	4-2	.139	63	Colorado	3-4	-.003	103	Marshall	1-6	-.173
24	Pittsburgh	3-3	.137	64	FIU	2-4	-.004	104	UTEP	4-3	-.174
25	Navy	4-2	.133	65	Northwestern	4-2	-.010	105	Wake Forest	1-5	-.181
26	Mississippi State	5-2	.133	66	Rutgers	3-3	-.016	106	LA Lafayette	2-5	-.181
27	Oklahoma State	6-1	.132	67	Arkansas State	3-5	-.021	107	LA Monroe	2-4	-.187
28	Utah	7-0	.129	68	Fresno State	4-2	-.026	108	Ball State	1-5	-.201
29	Georgia	4-4	.121	69	SMU	4-4	-.028	109	Eastern Michigan	1-7	-.221
30	West Virginia	4-2	.116	70	Penn State	3-3	-.030	110	Wyoming	1-6	-.223
31	Kentucky	4-4	.114	71	Louisiana Tech	2-4	-.047	111	Rice	2-6	-.231
32	Nevada	5-1	.106	72	Boston College	1-5	-.049	112	Miami (OH)	4-4	-.237
33	North Carolina	4-3	.100	73	Vanderbilt	2-5	-.064	113	UNLV	1-6	-.253
34	Louisville	3-3	.092	74	Tulsa	3-3	-.069	114	Colorado State	2-6	-.258
35	Illinois	3-3	.092	75	Western Michigan	2-4	-.070	115	San Jose State	0-6	-.261
36	Florida	4-3	.090	76	Ohio	4-3	-.073	116	Kansas	2-4	-.264
37	Hawaii	5-2	.090	77	UAB	2-5	-.073	117	Akron	0-7	-.270
38	Central Florida	4-2	.090	78	Idaho	3-3	-.073	118	New Mexico	0-7	-.271
39	Florida State	5-1	.088	79	Southern Miss.	4-2	-.075	119	Memphis	1-6	-.277
40	Cincinnati	2-4	.083	80	UCLA	3-4	-.076	120	N. Mexico St.	1-6	-.354

FEI Forecasts: Week 8 (Oct. 21 - 23)

2010-10-21T16:30:00.004-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Thursday, October 21
98.5% PWE; OREGON (h) 41, UCLA 3 (60-13 F)

Friday, October 22
84.7% PWE; CINCINNATI 28, South Florida 11 (30-38 F)

Saturday, October 23
95.9% PWE; Alabama 40, TENNESSEE 12 (41-10 F)
73.0% PWE; ARIZONA 29, Washington 20 (44-14 F)
91.3% PWE; Arizona State 38, CALIFORNIA 14 (17-50 F)
68.4% PWE; ARKANSAS 28, Mississippi 21 (38-24 F)
82.3% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 34, Florida Atlantic 19 (37-16 F)
71.0% PWE; AUBURN (h) 28, LSU 20 (24-17 F)
75.6% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 27, Kent State 16 (6-30 F)
94.6% PWE; BYU 37, Wyoming 12 (25-20 F)
98.2% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 43, Rice 6 (41-14 F)
78.8% PWE; CLEMSON 30, Georgia Tech 17 (27-13 F)
50.2% PWE; COLORADO 23, Texas Tech 22 (24-27 F)
90.6% PWE; EAST CAROLINA 37, Marshall 16 (37-10 F)
96.1% PWE; Fresno State 41, SAN JOSE STATE 13 (33-18 F)
72.7% PWE; Hawaii 34, UTAH STATE 23 (45-7 F)
98.1% PWE; IDAHO 47, New Mexico State 10 (37-14 F)
87.8% PWE; ILLINOIS 34, Indiana 15 (43-13 F)
51.4% PWE; Kansas State 33, BAYLOR 32 (42-47 F)
71.9% PWE; KENTUCKY 31, Georgia 23 (31-44 F)
65.6% PWE; LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 30, Western Kentucky 24 (21-54 F)
85.0% PWE; LOUISVILLE 35, Connecticut 18 (26-0 F)
67.1% PWE; Maryland 24, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 (24-21 F)
56.4% PWE; MIAMI 24, North Carolina 21 (33-10 F)
90.4% PWE; Michigan State 38, NORTHWESTERN 15 (35-27 F)
72.5% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 26, Louisiana Monroe 17 (38-10 F)
59.4% PWE; MINNESOTA 28, Penn State 24 (21-33 F)
96.1% PWE; MISSISSIPPI STATE (h) 35, UAB 8 (29-24 F)
51.9% PWE; MISSOURI 24, Oklahoma 23 (36-27 F)
59.9% PWE; Nebraska 24, OKLAHOMA STATE 20 (51-41 F)
78.3% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 31, Central Michigan 19 (33-7 F)
54.8% PWE; Notre Dame 24, Navy 23 (17-35 F)
81.9% PWE; Ohio 30, MIAMI (OH) 13 (34-13 F)
95.3% PWE; OHIO STATE 35, Purdue 9 (49-0 F)
75.0% PWE; PITTSBURGH 24, Rutgers 14 (41-21 F)
98.5% PWE; San Diego State 44, NEW MEXICO 3 (30-20 F)
87.6% PWE; SMU 36, Houston 17 (20-45 F)
97.8% PWE; South Carolina 40, VANDERBILT 10 (21-7 F)
98.5% PWE; STANFORD 54, Washington State 6 (38-28 F)
82.2% PWE; TCU 32, Air Force 17 (38-7 F)
60.0% PWE; Temple 21, BUFFALO 17 (42-0 F)
96.9% PWE; TEXAS 39, Iowa State 10 (21-28 F)
95.7% PWE; Texas A&M 37, KANSAS 9 (45-10 F)
78.7% PWE; TOLEDO 31, Ball State 18 (31-24 F)
60.3% PWE; Tulane 31, UTEP 27 (34-24 F)
98.5% PWE; UTAH 44, Colorado State 3 (59-6 F)
77.4% PWE; VIRGINIA 33, Eastern Michigan 21 (48-21 F)
98.5% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 47, Duke 6 (44-7 F)
88.9% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 34, Syracuse 14 (14-19 F)
80.2% PWE; Western Michigan 31, AKRON 15 (56-10 F)
51.5% PWE; Wisconsin 24, IOWA 23 (31-30 F)

FEI Commentary: Off/Def Ratings and Team Resumes

2010-10-20T17:00:00.000-05:00

With the first ratings of the year completely unaffected by preseason projected data, Oregon comes out on top with Auburn at No.2. I also produced the first offensive and defensive FEI ratings of the year and introduced new stat tables for all 120 FBS teams. The FEI top-25 is populated with many of the usual suspects, but more than a few team ratings stood out, including No. 5 South Carolina (3-2), No. 13 Arizona State (1-3) and No. 35 Utah (6-0). I ran "FEI Resumes" for these teams to figure out what the system likes and doesn't like about those three teams performances to date.

The opponent FEI rating is also provided, as well as a general "Relevance" factor for that particular result for that team. As stated in the FEI principles, my system rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. In the formula, the relevance factor is partly a function of the relative ratings of the two teams. The least relevant results receive about one-eighth as much weight as the most relevant results. For simplicity, I've generalized the relevance data here into three equally distributed categories, High, Med, and Low. Click here for the entrire Week 7 FEI commentary.

FEI Ratings: Week 7

2010-10-20T16:00:00.002-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Oregon	5-0	.300	41	Louisville	2-3	.082	81	Southern Miss.	4-2	-.072
2	Auburn	7-0	.286	42	Navy	3-2	.082	82	Central Michigan	1-5	-.078
3	Stanford	4-1	.272	43	Georgia	3-4	.081	83	Minnesota	1-5	-.078
4	Boise State	6-0	.258	44	Florida State	5-1	.080	84	Penn State	2-3	-.081
5	South Carolina	3-2	.253	45	Hawaii	4-2	.073	85	Indiana	3-2	-.083
6	LSU	6-0	.242	46	Mississippi	3-2	.072	86	Western Michigan	1-4	-.084
7	Michigan State	6-0	.242	47	Florida	4-3	.072	87	Tennessee	1-4	-.097
8	Oklahoma	6-0	.241	48	Illinois	2-3	.064	88	Bowling Green	1-6	-.101
9	Virginia Tech	5-1	.232	49	Georgia Tech	4-2	.042	89	UAB	2-4	-.103
10	Nebraska	4-1	.228	50	Maryland	3-2	.038	90	Buffalo	1-4	-.103
11	TCU	6-0	.224	51	Rutgers	3-2	.030	91	Duke	0-5	-.121
12	Missouri	5-0	.223	52	Texas A&M	2-3	.030	92	Toledo	4-3	-.128
13	Arizona State	1-3	.219	53	Army	4-3	.030	93	Florida Atlantic	1-4	-.130
14	Oregon State	3-3	.212	54	Troy	4-2	.023	94	Middle Tenn.	1-4	-.132
15	Wisconsin	5-1	.205	55	East Carolina	4-2	.012	95	LALafayette	2-4	-.134
16	Alabama	6-1	.204	56	Kansas State	4-1	.012	96	Tulane	1-4	-.137
17	USC	5-2	.203	57	Northern Illinois	4-2	.007	97	Virginia	0-4	-.137
18	NC State	4-2	.191	58	Fresno State	3-2	.004	98	North Texas	1-6	-.140
19	Ohio State	6-1	.181	59	SMU	4-3	-.001	99	Iowa State	2-4	-.143
20	Iowa	4-1	.174	60	Northwestern	4-1	-.007	100	Houston	2-3	-.148
21	Arizona	4-1	.166	61	FIU	2-4	-.013	101	Washington State	0-6	-.150
22	Oklahoma State	6-0	.158	62	Texas Tech	3-3	-.017	102	W. Kentucky	0-6	-.155
23	North Carolina	4-2	.151	63	Baylor	4-2	-.019	103	Marshall	1-5	-.157
24	Miami	3-2	.146	64	Arkansas State	2-5	-.020	104	Kent State	1-4	-.169
25	Clemson	2-3	.129	65	South Florida	2-3	-.021	105	Wake Forest	1-5	-.174
26	Kentucky	4-3	.129	66	UCLA	3-3	-.030	106	LA Monroe	2-3	-.182
27	Mississippi State	4-2	.124	67	Temple	4-2	-.033	107	UTEP	4-2	-.209
28	San Diego State	3-2	.115	68	Purdue	3-2	-.034	108	Ball State	1-4	-.214
29	Air Force	4-2	.114	69	California	2-3	-.038	109	Eastern Michigan	1-6	-.216
30	Michigan	4-2	.114	70	Colorado	3-3	-.041	110	Rice	2-5	-.222
31	Washington	3-3	.113	71	BYU	2-5	-.045	111	Wyoming	1-5	-.252
32	Cincinnati	2-3	.105	72	Louisiana Tech	2-4	-.045	112	Miami (OH)	4-3	-.255
33	West Virginia	4-1	.105	73	Connecticut	2-3	-.046	113	Colorado State	2-5	-.257
34	Arkansas	3-2	.104	74	Syracuse	2-2	-.051	114	UNLV	1-6	-.261
35	Utah	6-0	.098	75	Tulsa	3-3	-.060	115	Akron	0-6	-.264
36	Texas	4-2	.097	76	Ohio	3-3	-.065	116	Kansas	2-3	-.268
37	Pittsburgh	2-3	.095	77	Utah State	1-4	-.065	117	Memphis	1-6	-.280
38	Notre Dame	4-3	.094	78	Idaho	2-3	-.067	118	San Jose State	0-5	-.298
39	Central Florida	3-2	.093	79	Vanderbilt	2-4	-.067	119	New Mexico	0-6	-.310
40	Nevada	5-1	.090	80	Boston College	1-4	-.071	120	N. Mexico St.	1-5	-.385

FEI Forecasts: Week 7 (Oct. 13 - Oct. 16)

2010-10-14T12:00:00.001-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Wednesday, October 13
81.7% PWE; Central Florida 31, MARSHALL 14 (35-14 F)

Thursday, October 14
61.4% PWE; Kansas State 28, KANSAS 23 (59-7 F)
81.4% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 31, South Florida 17 (20-6 F)

Friday, October 15
64.9% PWE; LOUISVILLE 31, Cincinnati 26 (27-35 F)

Saturday, October 16
60.9% PWE; Air Force 25, SAN DIEGO STATE 20 (25-27 F)
88.6% PWE; ALABAMA 34, Mississippi 14 (23-10 F)
98.5% PWE; Arizona 39, WASHINGTON STATE 6 (24-7 F)
79.2% PWE; AUBURN 34, Arkansas 21 (65-43 F)
53.3% PWE; BALL STATE 28, Eastern Michigan 26 (38-41 F)
98.5% PWE; Boise State 51, SAN JOSE STATE 0 (48-0 F)
92.0% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35, Miami (OH) 13 (20-27 F)
76.3% PWE; CLEMSON 29, Maryland 18 (31-7 F)
56.6% PWE; COLORADO 21, Baylor 18 (25-31 F)
58.5% PWE; FLORIDA 27, Mississippi State 24 (7-10 F)
55.2% PWE; Florida International 29, NORTH TEXAS 27 (34-10 F)
96.3% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 41, Boston College 13 (24-19 F)
98.5% PWE; FRESNO STATE 45, New Mexico State 6 (33-10 F)
57.0% PWE; GEORGIA 24, Vanderbilt 21 (43-0 F)
93.8% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 38, Middle Tennessee 14 (42-14 F)
65.9% PWE; Houston 34, RICE 27 (31-34 F)
55.1% PWE; INDIANA 27, Arkansas State 24 (36-34 F)
51.0% PWE; Iowa 21, MICHIGAN 20 (38-28 F)
53.9% PWE; LOUISIANA TECH 30, Idaho 28 (48-35 F)
91.3% PWE; Miami 37, DUKE 13 (28-13 F)
83.6% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 33, Illinois 17 (26-6 F)
63.6% PWE; Missouri 31, TEXAS A&M 25 (30-9 F)
76.1% PWE; NAVY (h) 33, SMU 22 (28-21 F)
89.4% PWE; NEBRASKA 30, Texas 10 (13-20 F)
78.3% PWE; Nevada 38, HAWAII 24 (21-27 F)
78.0% PWE; North Carolina 27, VIRGINIA 13 (44-10 F)
90.6% PWE; North Carolina State 40, EAST CAROLINA 17 (27-33 F)
87.0% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 32, Buffalo 14 (45-14 F)
88.1% PWE; NOTRE DAME 35, Western Michigan 16 (44-20 F)
90.0% PWE; OHIO 30, Akron 9 (38-10 F)
68.1% PWE; Ohio State 30, WISCONSIN 21 (18-31 F)
98.3% PWE; OKLAHOMA 45, Iowa State 10 (52-0 F)
67.7% PWE; Oklahoma State 28, TEXAS TECH 20 (34-17 F)
77.4% PWE; Oregon State 34, WASHINGTON 20 (34-35 F)
57.4% PWE; Pittsburgh 24, SYRACUSE 21 (45-14 F)
74.8% PWE; PURDUE 30, Minnesota 20 (28-17 F)
72.5% PWE; RUTGERS 24, Army 15 (23-20 F)
80.2% PWE; South Carolina 29, KENTUCKY 13 (28-31 F)
79.6% PWE; Southern Mississippi 34, MEMPHIS 19 (41-19 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU (h) 45, BYU 6 (31-3 F)
87.0% PWE; TEMPLE 33, Bowling Green 15 (28-27 F)
63.9% PWE; TOLEDO 27, Kent State 22 (34-21 F)
92.9% PWE; TROY 37, Louisiana Lafayette 14 (31-24 F)
71.5% PWE; TULSA 31, Tulane 23 (52-24 F)
66.0% PWE; UAB (h) 33, UTEP 27 (21-6 F)
57.6% PWE; UNLV 30, COLORADO STATE (h) 27 (10-43 F)
64.6% PWE; USC 28, California 23 (48-14 F)
96.3% PWE; Utah 35, WYOMING 6 (30-6 F)
98.2% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 43, Wake Forest 10 (52-21 F)
64.3% PWE; WESTERN KENTUCKY 28, Louisiana Monroe 23 (30-35 F)

FEI Commentary: Field Goal Value

2010-10-13T20:00:00.001-05:00

Oregon is the new No. 1 team in the FEI ratings and the fallout from South Carolina's victory over Alabama means a dozen other teams have a suddenly realistic shot at a BCS championship berth. Boise State in particular has the potential to seize an unprecedented opportunity if it can dominate its schedule the rest of the way. This week's column also focused on field goal success and a new way to separate and measure the success of the kicking team versus the offense that got them into position.

For drives that do not reach the end zone but conclude within field goal range, I calculate the national average success rate for converting those opportunities into field goals. This is not strictly determined by a field goal percentage regression, however. We must also account for coaching decisions to punt or go for it in field goal range. The national drive ending value of the opponent's 35-yard-line, for instance, is equal to the number of successful 52-yard field goals kicked in college football, divided by the sum of the field goal attempts, punts and fourth-down attempts from that yard line.Click here to read the entire Week 6 commentary.

FEI Ratings: Week 6

2010-10-13T15:30:00.000-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Oregon	5-0	.264	41	Texas A&M	2-2	.067	81	Indiana	2-2	-.074
2	Boise State	5-0	.264	42	Air Force	4-1	.066	82	Boston College	1-3	-.076
3	South Carolina	3-1	.261	43	Cincinnati	1-3	.064	83	Iowa State	2-3	-.082
4	Stanford	4-1	.253	44	Texas	3-2	.059	84	Ohio	2-3	-.084
5	Alabama	5-1	.236	45	Pittsburgh	1-3	.057	85	Southern Miss.	3-2	-.089
6	Auburn	6-0	.234	46	Vanderbilt	2-3	.054	86	Duke	0-4	-.093
7	LSU	6-0	.229	47	Georgia	2-4	.051	87	Middle Tenn.	1-3	-.097
8	TCU	5-0	.227	48	Northwestern	4-1	.047	88	Tulsa	2-3	-.100
9	Nebraska	4-0	.219	49	Maryland	3-1	.046	89	Kansas	2-2	-.104
10	Oklahoma	5-0	.219	50	Navy	2-2	.045	90	BYU	2-4	-.111
11	Ohio State	6-0	.216	51	Rutgers	2-2	.037	91	Idaho	2-2	-.112
12	Virginia Tech	4-1	.209	52	Washington	2-3	.035	92	North Texas	1-5	-.114
13	Oregon State	3-2	.199	53	Central Florida	2-2	.030	93	Toledo	3-3	-.115
14	Michigan State	5-0	.194	54	South Florida	2-2	.024	94	Houston	2-2	-.117
15	NC State	4-1	.180	55	Troy	3-2	.021	95	Louisiana Tech	1-4	-.124
16	Arizona	3-1	.171	56	Texas Tech	3-2	.019	96	Buffalo	1-3	-.125
17	Miami	2-2	.163	57	Northern Illinois	3-2	.017	97	Kent State	1-3	-.131
18	Missouri	4-0	.157	58	Connecticut	2-3	.013	98	Florida Atlantic	1-4	-.131
19	Florida State	4-1	.154	59	Syracuse	2-1	-.001	99	UAB	1-4	-.134
20	Iowa	3-1	.151	60	Purdue	2-2	-.002	100	Utah State	1-4	-.137
21	USC	4-2	.149	61	Temple	3-2	-.008	101	Tulane	1-3	-.146
22	Arkansas	3-1	.145	62	San Diego State	2-2	-.009	102	Bowling Green	1-5	-.150
23	North Carolina	3-2	.137	63	UCLA	3-3	-.012	103	UTEP	4-1	-.156
24	California	2-2	.132	64	Army	4-2	-.014	104	Marshall	1-4	-.159
25	Oklahoma State	5-0	.130	65	Baylor	3-2	-.020	105	W. Kentucky	0-5	-.168
26	Arizona State	1-3	.130	66	Colorado	3-2	-.025	106	LA Lafayette	2-3	-.169
27	West Virginia	3-1	.128	67	SMU	4-2	-.026	107	Washington State	0-5	-.172
28	Nevada	5-0	.126	68	Kansas State	3-1	-.026	108	Louisiana Monroe	1-3	-.185
29	Michigan	4-1	.122	69	Fresno State	2-2	-.026	109	Wyoming	1-4	-.199
30	Clemson	1-3	.118	70	Penn State	2-3	-.028	110	Eastern Michigan	0-6	-.204
31	Utah	5-0	.105	71	Virginia	0-3	-.031	111	UNLV	1-5	-.205
32	Wisconsin	4-1	.102	72	Central Michigan	1-4	-.038	112	Ball State	1-3	-.218
33	Georgia Tech	3-2	.100	73	Hawaii	3-2	-.043	113	Rice	1-5	-.219
34	Florida	4-2	.092	74	Minnesota	1-4	-.065	114	Miami (OH)	3-3	-.219
35	Mississippi State	3-2	.092	75	Arkansas State	2-4	-.066	115	Akron	0-5	-.248
36	Mississippi	3-1	.083	76	FIU	1-4	-.067	116	San Jose State	0-4	-.251
37	Louisville	2-2	.082	77	Tennessee	1-4	-.068	117	New Mexico	0-6	-.263
38	Notre Dame	3-3	.081	78	Western Michigan	1-3	-.069	118	Colorado State	1-5	-.263
39	Kentucky	3-3	.081	79	East Carolina	3-2	-.070	119	Memphis	1-5	-.265
40	Illinois	2-2	.075	80	Wake Forest	1-4	-.071	120	N. Mexico State	1-4	-.366

FEI Forecasts: Week 6 (Oct. 5 - 9)

2010-10-07T16:00:00.005-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Tuesday, October 5
60.8% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 27, Troy 23 (13-42 F)

Wednesday, October 6
80.0% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA (h) 30, UAB 17 (42-7 F)

Thursday, October 7
74.2% PWE; Nebraska 27, KANSAS STATE 15 (48-13 F)

Friday, October 8
96.0% PWE; Oklahoma State 35, LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 7 (54-28 F)
67.1% PWE; RUTGERS 27, Connecticut 21 (27-24 F)

Saturday, October 9
98.3% PWE; AIR FORCE 40, Colorado State 6 (49-27 F)
72.5% PWE; Alabama 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 17 (21-35 F)
65.8% PWE; ARIZONA 30, Oregon State 24 (27-29 F)
53.0% PWE; Arizona State 23, WASHINGTON 22 (24-14 F)
73.6% PWE; Arkansas 34, Texas A&M 24 (24-17 F)
67.7% PWE; Army 26, TULANE 18 (41-23 F)
67.7% PWE; Auburn 28, KENTUCKY 20 (37-34 F)
53.0% PWE; BALL STATE 25, Western Michigan 23 (16-45 F)
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 47, Toledo 7 (57-14 F)
62.0% PWE; BYU 31, San Diego State 27 (24-21 F)
74.5% PWE; CALIFORNIA (h) 29, UCLA 19 (35-7 F)
82.9% PWE; CINCINNATI 35, Miami (OH) 20 (45-3 F)
51.5% PWE; East Carolina 24, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 23 (44-43 F)
56.6% PWE; Florida Atlantic 28, LOUISIANA MONROE 26 (17-20 F)
78.6% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 35, Western Kentucky 23 (28-21 F)
89.3% PWE; FRESNO STATE 40, Hawaii 20 (27-49 F)
65.9% PWE; GEORGIA 27, Tennessee 21 (41-14 F)
78.4% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 32, Virginia 20 (33-21 F)
92.9% PWE; KENT STATE 33, Akron 10 (28-17 F)
95.5% PWE; LOUISVILLE 40, Memphis 14 (56-0 F)
51.5% PWE; LSU 24, FLORIDA (h) 23 (33-29 F)
79.7% PWE; MIAMI 37, Florida State 24 (17-45 F)
71.9% PWE; MICHIGAN 30, Michigan State 22 (17-34 F)
69.4% PWE; Mississippi State 35, HOUSTON 26 (47-24 F)
81.8% PWE; MISSOURI 31, Colorado 16 (26-0 F)
57.2% PWE; Navy 29, WAKE FOREST 26 (28-27 F)
98.5% PWE; NEVADA 49, San Jose State 10 (35-13 F)
60.2% PWE; New Mexico 21, NEW MEXICO STATE 17 (14-16 F)
64.6% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA 23, Clemson 18 (21-16 F)
80.5% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA STATE 34, Boston College 20 (44-17 F)
51.9% PWE; NORTH TEXAS 27, Arkansas State 26 (19-24 F)
66.5% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27, Temple 21 (31-17 F)
68.7% PWE; NORTHWESTERN 28, Purdue 21 (17-20 F)
65.5% PWE; NOTRE DAME 30, Pittsburgh 24 (23-17 F)
58.6% PWE; OHIO 23, Bowling Green 20 (49-25 F)
97.6% PWE; OHIO STATE 42, Indiana 12 (38-10 F)
98.5% PWE; Oregon 48, WASHINGTON STATE 6 (43-23 F)
74.3% PWE; PENN STATE 29, Illinois 19 (13-33 F)
70.2% PWE; SMU 31, Tulsa 23 (21-18 F)
80.6% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 31, Syracuse 17 (9-13 F)
71.9% PWE; STANFORD (h) 35, USC 27 (37-35 F)
98.3% PWE; TCU 37, Wyoming 3 (45-0 F)
76.3% PWE; Texas Tech 30, Baylor 18 (45-38 F)
73.6% PWE; Utah 33, IOWA STATE 21 (68-27 F)
53.0% PWE; Utah State 26, LOUISIANA TECH 25 (6-24 F)
81.7% PWE; UTEP 35, Rice 20 (44-24 F)
93.4% PWE; VANDERBILT 35, Eastern Michigan 11 (52-6 F)
95.5% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 39, Central Michigan 13 (45-21 F)
98.3% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA (h) 45, UNLV 11 (49-10 F)
73.9% PWE; WISCONSIN 33, Minnesota 23 (41-23 F)

FEI Commentary: Oregon Flips The Switch

2010-10-07T09:00:00.001-05:00

The Oregon Ducks have one of the most explosive teams in college football, and their runaway defeat of Stanford after spotting the Cardinal a 21-3 first quarter lead is a prime example. This week's FEI column at Football Outsiders investigates the rarity of Oregon's feat.

It takes a special kind of team to flip a switch and dominate after spotting an opponent a three-score lead. And actually, it is a very rare thing to come back from a three-score deficit at all. The Ducks are only the fourth team in 2010 to recover from a scoring margin deficit of 17 or more points and win. In 2009, only 10 teams accomplished the feat. During the last two seasons, a team that takes at least a 17-point lead at any point in the game has gone on to win 97.5 percent of the time. In fact, Oregon is only the second team in the last two seasons to erase a 17-point deficit and win by more than one score.
Read the entire Week 5 FEI commentary

FEI Ratings: Week 5

2010-10-06T19:00:00.001-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	5-0	.297	41	Arizona State	0-3	.058	81	Iowa State	2-2	-.050
2	Oregon	4-0	.246	42	Mississippi	3-1	.055	82	Southern Miss.	3-1	-.055
3	Stanford	3-1	.234	43	Kentucky	3-2	.054	83	Kent State	0-3	-.057
4	Boise State	4-0	.220	44	UCLA	3-2	.053	84	Tulsa	2-2	-.067
5	Ohio State	5-0	.212	45	Wisconsin	3-1	.047	85	Army	3-2	-.074
6	Miami	2-1	.211	46	Georgia	1-4	.047	86	Miami (OH)	3-2	-.075
7	Oklahoma	5-0	.206	47	Air Force	3-1	.046	87	FIU	0-4	-.082
8	Virginia Tech	3-1	.190	48	Texas A&M	2-1	.040	88	UTEP	3-1	-.096
9	USC	4-1	.186	49	Cincinnati	0-3	.039	89	BYU	1-4	-.099
10	Iowa	3-1	.173	50	Rutgers	1-2	.037	90	San Diego State	2-1	-.109
11	LSU	5-0	.169	51	Virginia	0-2	.037	91	Western Michigan	0-3	-.112
12	Auburn	5-0	.165	52	Navy	1-2	.037	92	Arkansas State	1-4	-.113
13	Nebraska	3-0	.164	53	Northwestern	4-0	.030	93	Ohio	1-3	-.122
14	South Carolina	2-1	.160	54	Boston College	1-2	.029	94	Bowling Green	1-4	-.123
15	TCU	4-0	.157	55	Louisville	1-2	.029	95	Ball State	1-2	-.127
16	Michigan	4-0	.142	56	Tennessee	1-3	.025	96	Toledo	3-2	-.130
17	Arkansas	2-1	.139	57	Colorado	3-1	.024	97	North Texas	1-4	-.131
18	Florida	4-1	.138	58	Illinois	1-2	.023	98	Florida Atlantic	1-3	-.132
19	Texas	3-2	.134	59	Washington	2-2	.021	99	UAB	1-3	-.134
20	Arizona	3-0	.133	60	Kansas State	3-0	.018	100	Buffalo	1-3	-.134
21	Missouri	3-0	.130	61	Connecticut	2-2	.011	101	Wyoming	1-3	-.137
22	NC State	3-1	.128	62	Vanderbilt	1-3	.007	102	Marshall	1-4	-.140
23	Oklahoma State	4-0	.125	63	Fresno State	2-1	.000	103	Utah State	1-3	-.154
24	North Carolina	2-2	.125	64	Purdue	1-2	-.003	104	Hawaii	2-2	-.158
25	Georgia Tech	2-2	.122	65	Minnesota	1-3	-.011	105	W. Kentucky	0-4	-.168
26	Florida State	3-1	.118	66	Northern Illinois	2-2	-.018	106	UNLV	1-4	-.174
27	California	1-2	.115	67	Wake Forest	1-3	-.020	107	LA Lafayette	2-2	-.175
28	West Virginia	2-1	.113	68	East Carolina	2-2	-.024	108	Washington State	0-4	-.182
29	Oregon State	2-2	.111	69	Kansas	2-2	-.026	109	Louisiana Monroe	0-3	-.185
30	Clemson	1-2	.107	70	SMU	3-2	-.027	110	Tulane	1-2	-.185
31	Michigan State	4-0	.095	71	Central Michigan	1-3	-.028	111	Eastern Michigan	0-5	-.187
32	Utah	4-0	.093	72	Middle Tennessee	1-2	-.028	112	Memphis	1-4	-.189
33	Nevada	4-0	.087	73	Syracuse	1-1	-.030	113	Louisiana Tech	0-4	-.190
34	Penn State	2-2	.083	74	Baylor	3-1	-.032	114	Idaho	2-2	-.193
35	Texas Tech	2-2	.082	75	Troy	2-2	-.035	115	Rice	1-4	-.202
36	Notre Dame	2-3	.080	76	Central Florida	1-2	-.039	116	New Mexico	0-5	-.236
37	Mississippi State	2-2	.078	77	Houston	2-1	-.042	117	Colorado State	1-4	-.246
38	South Florida	2-1	.069	78	Temple	3-1	-.042	118	San Jose State	0-3	-.247
39	Maryland	3-1	.061	79	Indiana	2-1	-.045	119	Akron	0-4	-.247
40	Pittsburgh	1-2	.059	80	Duke	0-4	-.047	120	N. Mexico St.	0-4	-.307

FEI Forecasts: Week 5 (Sep. 30 - Oct. 2)

2010-09-30T13:00:00.002-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Thursday, September 30
80.0% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 30, Texas A&M 17 (38-35 F)

Friday, October 1
66.7% PWE; BYU 35, UTAH STATE (h) 27 (16-31 F)

Saturday, October 2
65.8% PWE; ALABAMA 29, Florida 23 (31-6 F)
98.5% PWE; AUBURN 45, Louisiana Monroe 6 (52-3 F)
98.5% PWE; Boise State 47, NEW MEXICO STATE 0 (59-0 F)
69.1% PWE; BOSTON COLLEGE 28, Notre Dame 21 (13-31 F)
62.7% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 26, Buffalo 21 (26-28 F)
87.1% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35, Ball State 17 (17-31 F)
52.1% PWE; CONNECTICUT 24, Vanderbilt 22 (40-21 F)
56.8% PWE; Georgia 25, COLORADO 23 (27-29 F)
75.4% PWE; Georgia Tech 35, WAKE FOREST 22 (24-20 F)
54.9% PWE; HAWAII 26, Louisiana Tech 24 (41-21 F)
71.4% PWE; IOWA 23, Penn State 15 (24-3 F)
70.2% PWE; Kansas 27, BAYLOR 17 (7-55 F)
75.9% PWE; Louisville 31, ARKANSAS STATE 18 (34-24 F)
89.7% PWE; LSU 30, Tennessee 10 (16-14 F)
83.2% PWE; MARYLAND 34, Duke 18 (21-16 F)
51.8% PWE; Miami 22, CLEMSON 21 (30-21 F)
51.5% PWE; MIAMI (OH) 23, Kent State 22 (27-21 F)
84.3% PWE; Michigan 35, INDIANA 17 (42-35 F)
60.0% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 28, Wisconsin 24 (34-24 F)
59.8% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 24, Kentucky 20 (42-35 F)
53.5% PWE; Navy 24, AIR FORCE 23 (6-14 F)
90.2% PWE; Nevada 47, UNLV 24 (44-26 F)
88.7% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA 30, East Carolina 10 (42-17 F)
68.2% PWE; NORTH TEXAS 28, Louisiana Lafayette 21 (27-28 F)
74.9% PWE; Northern Illinois 28, AKRON 16 (50-14 F)
56.0% PWE; Northwestern 28, MINNESOTA 26 (29-28 F)
58.1% PWE; Ohio 24, EASTERN MICHIGAN 21 (30-17 F)
86.6% PWE; Ohio State 34, ILLINOIS 14 (24-13 F)
58.2% PWE; Oklahoma 24, Texas 21 (28-20 F)
68.6% PWE; OREGON 38, Stanford 31 (52-31 F)
74.0% PWE; OREGON STATE 28, Arizona State 18 (31-28 F)
89.3% PWE; PITTSBURGH 37, Florida International 17 (44-17 F)
98.0% PWE; RUTGERS 41, Tulane 9 (14-17 F)
76.2% PWE; SMU 33, RICE (h) 20 (42-31 F)
92.7% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 41, Florida Atlantic 18 (31-3 F)
61.5% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 27, Marshall 23 (41-16 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU 42, COLORADO STATE (h) 3 (27-0 F)
54.4% PWE; Temple 21, ARMY 20 (42-35 F)
83.4% PWE; Texas Tech 40, IOWA STATE 22 (38-52 F)
64.3% PWE; TOLEDO 26, Wyoming 21 (15-20 F)
59.2% PWE; Tulsa 30, MEMPHIS 26 (48-7 F)
96.9% PWE; UCLA 35, Washington State 6 (42-28 F)
96.0% PWE; USC 40, Washington 13 (31-32 F)
75.5% PWE; UTEP 33, NEW MEXICO (h) 20 (38-20 F)
54.2% PWE; VIRGINIA 29, Florida State 27 (14-34 F)
63.2% PWE; Virginia Tech 33, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 27 (41-30 F)
80.9% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 35, Idaho 21 (13-33 F)

FEI Commentary: Recalibrating Expectations

2010-09-30T10:00:00.005-05:00

The season is still young, and the FEI ratings are still influenced by preseason projected data. But the fortunes of some teams have already been dramatically affected. Nevada, Stanford, and NC State have produced eye-opening, dominating victories in the first few weeks of 2010, and their new season win projections are much more favorable than originally anticipated. On the flip side of that coin, BYU, Notre Dame, and Georgia are not likely to reach their lofty expectations after stinging defeats in the last few weeks. UCLA has been the year's most schizophrenic program. And for other teams, it's hard to tell if their success is due to performance or luck.

The extremes are worth a closer look. Toledo has earned 2.1 more wins than expected to date, most in the country. Middle Tennessee ranks last, having earned 1.2 fewer wins than expected. It's important to note that the projected FEI data is still a factor, and it might be a very influential component for these outliers. By season's end, however, the extremes will more accurately be attributed to luck -- an inordinate number of close games in the win or loss column will have a big impact on the difference between a team's actual and mean wins.
Read the entire FEI Week 4 commentary

FEI Ratings: Week 4

2010-09-29T18:00:00.001-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	4-0	.265	41	Wisconsin	3-0	.069	81	Indiana	2-0	-.069
2	Florida	4-0	.243	42	Navy	1-1	.067	82	Baylor	2-1	-.070
3	Oregon	3-0	.230	43	Pittsburgh	0-2	.066	83	Army	3-1	-.077
4	Ohio State	4-0	.210	44	Rutgers	1-1	.065	84	Southern Miss.	2-1	-.081
5	Boise State	3-0	.206	45	South Florida	1-1	.056	85	Miami (OH)	2-2	-.082
6	Virginia Tech	2-1	.203	46	Maryland	2-1	.056	86	UTEP	2-1	-.084
7	Stanford	3-0	.198	47	Kansas	2-1	.055	87	Iowa State	1-2	-.084
8	LSU	4-0	.193	48	Notre Dame	1-3	.051	88	W. Michigan	0-2	-.088
9	USC	4-0	.193	49	UCLA	2-2	.047	89	Marshall	1-3	-.089
10	Auburn	4-0	.179	50	Georgia	1-3	.043	90	FIU	0-3	-.092
11	Miami	1-1	.178	51	Arizona State	0-2	.040	91	Tulsa	1-2	-.099
12	Oklahoma	4-0	.177	52	Cincinnati	0-3	.035	92	San Diego State	2-1	-.109
13	South Carolina	2-1	.161	53	Tennessee	1-2	.032	93	Ohio	0-3	-.120
14	Texas	3-1	.153	54	Louisville	0-2	.030	94	Bowling Green	1-3	-.124
15	TCU	3-0	.151	55	Air Force	2-1	.028	95	Arkansas State	1-3	-.126
16	Nebraska	3-0	.148	56	Northwestern	3-0	.025	96	UAB	1-3	-.126
17	Iowa	2-1	.148	57	Vanderbilt	1-2	.019	97	Toledo	3-1	-.129
18	Clemson	1-1	.146	58	Texas A&M	2-0	.012	98	Florida Atlantic	1-2	-.131
19	Arkansas	2-1	.144	59	Fresno State	2-1	.007	99	Buffalo	0-3	-.136
20	North Carolina	1-2	.137	60	Connecticut	1-2	.002	100	Wyoming	0-3	-.146
21	Michigan	3-0	.135	61	Kansas State	3-0	-.001	101	Louisiana Tech	0-3	-.149
22	Georgia Tech	1-2	.132	62	Central Michigan	1-2	-.008	102	North Texas	1-3	-.150
23	West Virginia	2-1	.121	63	Purdue	1-2	-.009	103	Ball State	0-2	-.150
24	Missouri	3-0	.117	64	Illinois	1-1	-.010	104	Hawaii	1-2	-.158
25	NC State	3-0	.116	65	Colorado	2-1	-.012	105	LA Monroe	0-2	-.160
26	Texas Tech	2-1	.115	66	East Carolina	2-1	-.017	106	Memphis	1-3	-.165
27	Arizona	3-0	.114	67	Wake Forest	1-2	-.021	107	UNLV	1-3	-.166
28	Oklahoma State	3-0	.107	68	Minnesota	1-2	-.025	108	W. Kentucky	0-4	-.171
29	Penn State	2-1	.102	69	Houston	2-1	-.026	109	Utah State	0-3	-.174
30	Oregon State	1-2	.099	70	Middle Tenn.	1-2	-.029	110	Eastern Michigan	0-4	-.180
31	Florida State	2-1	.097	71	Washington	1-2	-.032	111	LA Lafayette	1-2	-.181
32	California	1-2	.094	72	SMU	2-2	-.032	112	Idaho	1-2	-.188
33	Utah	4-0	.092	73	Temple	2-1	-.034	113	Rice	1-3	-.190
34	Mississippi State	2-2	.086	74	Central Florida	1-2	-.039	114	Washington State	0-3	-.193
35	Boston College	1-1	.086	75	Troy	2-2	-.040	115	Tulane	0-2	-.202
36	Virginia	0-1	.085	76	Syracuse	1-1	-.044	116	Akron	0-3	-.207
37	Nevada	3-0	.081	77	Northern Illinois	1-2	-.057	117	San Jose State	0-3	-.229
38	Mississippi	2-1	.073	78	Duke	0-3	-.060	118	New Mexico	0-4	-.237
39	Michigan State	3-0	.073	79	Kent State	0-2	-.062	119	Colorado State	1-3	-.252
40	Kentucky	3-1	.070	80	BYU	1-3	-.068	120	N. Mexico State	0-3	-.274

FEI Forecasts: Week 4 (Sep. 23 - 25)

2010-09-23T16:00:00.003-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Thursday, September 23
52.9% PWE; Miami 24, PITTSBURGH 23 (31-3 F)

Friday, September 24
83.0% PWE; TCU 34, SMU (h) 17 (41-24 F)

Saturday, September 25
81.5% PWE; Air Force 27, WYOMING 11 (20-14 F)
70.7% PWE; Alabama 34, ARKANSAS 24 (24-20 F)
68.9% PWE; ARIZONA 28, California 21 (10-9 F)
56.2% PWE; AUBURN 23, South Carolina 20 (35-27 F)
63.3% PWE; Baylor 25, RICE 19 (30-13 F)
83.6% PWE; BOISE STATE 33, Oregon State 17 (37-24 F)
87.9% PWE; CONNECTICUT 34, Buffalo 15 (45-21 F)
74.1% PWE; DUKE 27, Army 17 (21-35 F)
93.3% PWE; FLORIDA 37, Kentucky 13 (48-14 F)
62.1% PWE; FLORIDA ATLANTIC 34, North Texas 30 (17-21 F)
77.7% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 38, Wake Forest 26 (31-0 F)
62.9% PWE; Georgia 30, MISSISSIPPI STATE 24 (12-24 F)
82.8% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 41, North Carolina State 26 (28-45 F)
91.7% PWE; HOUSTON 44, Tulane 22 (42-23 F)
58.1% PWE; Idaho 33, COLORADO STATE 30 (34-36 F)
82.2% PWE; INDIANA 31, Akron 16 (35-20 F)
97.1% PWE; IOWA 35, Ball State 6 (45-0 F)
98.3% PWE; KANSAS 42, New Mexico State 6 (42-16 F)
70.8% PWE; KANSAS STATE 28, Central Florida 20 (17-13 F)
72.7% PWE; LSU 26, West Virginia 17 (20-14 F)
68.6% PWE; MARSHALL 24, Ohio 17 (24-23 F)
91.9% PWE; MARYLAND 37, Florida International 15 (42-28 F)
97.7% PWE; MICHIGAN 41, Bowling Green 10 (65-21 F)
81.4% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 27, Louisiana Lafayette 13 (34-14 F)
76.4% PWE; MINNESOTA 31, Northern Illinois 20 (23-34 F)
70.2% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 29, Fresno State 21 (55-38 F)
85.4% PWE; MISSOURI 34, Miami (OH) 17 (51-13 F)
55.5% PWE; Nevada 35, BYU 33 (27-13 F)
61.8% PWE; North Carolina 23, RUTGERS 18 (17-13 F)
70.7% PWE; NORTHWESTERN 29, Central Michigan 21 (30-25 F)
50.4% PWE; NOTRE DAME 35, Stanford 34 (14-37 F)
98.5% PWE; OHIO STATE 51, Eastern Michigan 6 (73-20 F)
73.8% PWE; Oklahoma 33, CINCINNATI 21 (31-29 F)
83.2% PWE; Oregon 33, ARIZONA STATE 15 (42-31 F)
94.5% PWE; PENN STATE 35, Temple 10 (22-13 F)
93.4% PWE; PURDUE 38, Toledo 14 (20-31 F)
56.4% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE 30, Utah State 27 (41-7 F)
97.6% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 43, Western Kentucky 13 (24-12 F)
60.1% PWE; Southern Mississippi 27, LOUISIANA TECH 23 (13-12 F)
93.8% PWE; TENNESSEE (h) 36, UAB 12 (32-29 F)
95.2% PWE; TEXAS (h) 35, UCLA 9 (12-34 F)
80.7% PWE; TROY 34, Arkansas State 20 (35-28 F)
65.0% PWE; UNLV 29, New Mexico 24 (45-10 F)
98.5% PWE; USC 41, WASHINGTON STATE (h) 6 (50-16 F)
97.7% PWE; UTAH 39, San Jose State 8 (56-3 F)
80.4% PWE; UTEP 38, Memphis 24 (16-13 F)
57.1% PWE; Virginia Tech 24, BOSTON COLLEGE 21 (19-0 F)

FEI Commentary: Alabama Looking Strong

2010-09-22T20:00:00.000-05:00

I introduced a new section in the FEI weekly column: "Three and Out", a selection of three data tables identifying the top teams in the country in unique unadjusted drive efficiency split categories. This week featured three-and-outs, available yards, and explosive drives. Individually, these are not factors in the Game Efficiency and FEI formulas, but a team's total possession efficiency success is collectively impacted by these and other drive splits. Alabama, the new No. 1 team in the FEI ratings, finds itself on the offensive and defensive leaderboard in most categories. But while they may be No. 1, FEI doesn't expect the Crimson Tide to finish the season undefeated.

Alabama's schedule isn't getting any easier. The Crimson Tide will face five current FEI top 20 teams in their final nine games, starting with a trip to Arkansas this weekend. Based on projected win expectations, Alabama is only expected to go 6-2 against FBS opponents down the stretch (7-2 with the inclusion of their game against FCS Georgia State). As described in last week's ESPN Insider piece, a multiple-loss national championship game participant is a very real possibility in 2010.
Read the entire FEI Week 3 commentary.

FEI Ratings: Week 3

2010-09-22T18:00:00.001-05:00

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI	Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	3-0	0.268	41	Kentucky	3-0	0.066	81	Southern Miss.	1-1	-0.075
2	Florida	3-0	0.259	42	Mississippi	1-1	0.062	82	Indiana	1-0	-0.076
3	Oregon	2-0	0.217	43	Navy	1-1	0.062	83	UTEP	1-1	-0.084
4	Ohio State	3-0	0.216	44	NC State	2-0	0.062	84	Baylor	1-1	-0.087
5	Boise State	2-0	0.201	45	Maryland	1-1	0.062	85	Iowa State	1-2	-0.089
6	Texas	3-0	0.201	46	Rutgers	1-0	0.058	86	Marshall	0-3	-0.091
7	Virginia Tech	1-1	0.187	47	Tennessee	0-2	0.049	87	Northern Illinois	0-2	-0.091
8	LSU	3-0	0.185	48	Nevada	2-0	0.047	88	Western Michigan	0-2	-0.092
9	South Carolina	2-0	0.178	49	Kansas	1-1	0.046	89	Ball State	0-1	-0.099
10	USC	3-0	0.176	50	Air Force	1-1	0.041	90	Army	2-1	-0.101
11	Georgia Tech	1-1	0.175	51	Mississippi State	1-2	0.039	91	Tulsa	1-2	-0.103
12	Auburn	3-0	0.173	52	Purdue	1-1	0.037	92	Bowling Green	1-2	-0.106
13	Oklahoma	3-0	0.169	53	Northwestern	2-0	0.037	93	FIU	0-2	-0.119
14	TCU	2-0	0.154	54	Cincinnati	0-2	0.025	94	Ohio	0-2	-0.123
15	Michigan	2-0	0.152	55	Fresno State	2-0	0.023	95	Utah State	0-2	-0.127
16	Clemson	1-1	0.151	56	Louisville	0-2	0.020	96	San Diego State	1-1	-0.132
17	Iowa	1-1	0.146	57	Arizona State	0-1	0.019	97	Arkansas State	1-2	-0.137
18	Stanford	2-0	0.145	58	Vanderbilt	1-2	0.011	98	Louisiana Tech	0-2	-0.146
19	Miami	0-1	0.145	59	Wake Forest	1-1	0.005	99	Wyoming	0-2	-0.146
20	Arkansas	2-0	0.140	60	Texas A&M	2-0	0.002	100	Buffalo	0-2	-0.147
21	Penn State	1-1	0.138	61	Connecticut	0-2	0.002	101	Florida Atlantic	1-1	-0.147
22	North Carolina	0-2	0.137	62	BYU	1-2	-0.001	102	UAB	1-2	-0.149
23	West Virginia	2-0	0.133	63	Central Michigan	1-1	-0.005	103	Hawaii	1-2	-0.153
24	Boston College	1-0	0.131	64	Illinois	1-1	-0.012	104	North Texas	0-3	-0.157
25	Nebraska	3-0	0.131	65	UCLA	1-2	-0.013	105	Toledo	2-1	-0.158
26	Georgia	1-2	0.125	66	Kansas State	2-0	-0.016	106	LA Monroe	0-2	-0.164
27	Notre Dame	1-2	0.121	67	Minnesota	1-1	-0.018	107	Rice	1-2	-0.175
28	Pittsburgh	0-1	0.108	68	Colorado	2-1	-0.020	108	LA Lafayette	1-1	-0.177
29	Texas Tech	2-1	0.107	69	East Carolina	2-1	-0.023	109	UNLV	0-3	-0.178
30	Arizona	2-0	0.101	70	Washington	1-2	-0.027	110	Idaho	1-1	-0.180
31	Michigan State	3-0	0.100	71	Houston	1-1	-0.032	111	Eastern Michigan	0-3	-0.181
32	Oklahoma State	3-0	0.099	72	Troy	1-2	-0.038	112	San Jose State	0-2	-0.182
33	Wisconsin	3-0	0.095	73	Duke	0-2	-0.042	113	Memphis	1-2	-0.182
34	Virginia	0-1	0.090	74	SMU	2-1	-0.043	114	Washington State	0-2	-0.185
35	Florida State	1-1	0.085	75	Syracuse	1-1	-0.047	115	Akron	0-2	-0.185
36	Oregon State	1-1	0.082	76	Miami (OH)	2-1	-0.049	116	W. Kentucky	0-3	-0.190
37	Missouri	2-0	0.082	77	Central Florida	1-1	-0.058	117	New Mexico	0-3	-0.197
38	Utah	3-0	0.078	78	Temple	2-0	-0.067	118	Tulane	0-1	-0.210
39	California	1-1	0.067	79	Kent State	0-2	-0.072	119	Colorado State	0-3	-0.240
40	South Florida	0-1	0.066	80	Middle Tenn.	0-2	-0.073	120	N. Mexico St.	0-2	-0.265

FEI Forecasts: Week 3 (Sep. 16 - 18)

2010-09-16T15:00:00.002-05:00

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Thursday, September 16
59.3% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA STATE 35, Cincinnati 31 (30-19 F)

Friday, September 17
67.7% PWE; California 36, NEVADA 28 (31-52 F)
78.2% PWE; Kansas 31, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 17 (16-31 F)

Saturday, September 18
91.0% PWE; Alabama 40, DUKE 17 (62-13 F)
62.8% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 24, Louisiana Monroe 19 (34-20 F)
68.4% PWE; ARMY 27, North Texas 20 (24-0 F)
97.3% PWE; Boise State 36, WYOMING 6 (51-6 F)
59.2% PWE; Central Florida 24, BUFFALO 20 (24-10 F)
73.7% PWE; Central Michigan 33, EASTERN MICHIGAN 21 (52-14 F)
52.6% PWE; Clemson 24, AUBURN 23 (24-27 F)
82.6% PWE; COLORADO 31, Hawaii 16 (31-13 F)
70.0% PWE; Connecticut 30, TEMPLE 20 (16-30 F)
83.6% PWE; Florida 31, TENNESSEE 13 (31-17 F)
74.3% PWE; FLORIDA STATE (h) 38, BYU 28 (34-10 F)
74.7% PWE; Fresno State 36, UTAH STATE 24 (41-24 F)
72.0% PWE; GEORGIA 33, Arkansas 25 (24-31 F)
55.1% PWE; Georgia Tech 25, NORTH CAROLINA 23 (30-24 F)
59.7% PWE; Houston 30, UCLA 26 (13-31 F)
76.1% PWE; ILLINOIS 30, Northern Illinois 19 (28-22 F)
61.6% PWE; Indiana 33, WESTERN KENTUCKY 28 (38-21 F)
60.9% PWE; Iowa 23, ARIZONA 18 (27-34 F)
67.5% PWE; Kansas State 31, Iowa State 24 (27-20 F)
93.0% PWE; KENTUCKY 33, Akron 10 (47-10 F)
85.3% PWE; LSU 31, Mississippi State 14 (29-7 F)
51.6% PWE; Marshall 25, BOWLING GREEN 24 (28-44 F)
87.6% PWE; MIAMI (OH) 34, Colorado State 15 (31-10 F)
64.4% PWE; Middle Tennessee 27, MEMPHIS 20 (17-24 F)
82.0% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 27, Vanderbilt 12 (14-28 F)
98.1% PWE; MISSOURI 44, San Diego State 12 (27-24 F)
77.2% PWE; Navy 33, LOUISIANA TECH 19 (37-23 F)
66.6% PWE; Nebraska 26, WASHINGTON 18 (56-21 F)
80.5% PWE; Northwestern 34, RICE 18 (30-13 F)
59.5% PWE; Notre Dame 31, MICHIGAN STATE 27 (31-34 F)
98.1% PWE; OHIO STATE 40, Ohio 3 (43-7 F)
92.1% PWE; OKLAHOMA 33, Air Force 10 (27-24 F)
84.8% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 31, Tulsa 14 (65-28 F)
76.7% PWE; OREGON STATE 32, Louisville 21 (35-28 F)
95.9% PWE; PENN STATE 36, Kent State 9 (24-0 F)
76.6% PWE; PURDUE 28, Ball State 17 (24-13 F)
84.7% PWE; SMU 32, Washington State 15 (35-21 F)
58.6% PWE; STANFORD 35, Wake Forest 32 (68-24 F)
95.0% PWE; TCU 35, Baylor 9 (45-10 F)
59.1% PWE; Texas 27, TEXAS TECH 23 (24-14 F)
88.6% PWE; TEXAS A&M 38, Florida International 18 (27-20 F)
68.2% PWE; Troy 33, UAB 24 (33-34 F)
52.5% PWE; UNLV 35, IDAHO (h) 34 (7-30 F)
82.2% PWE; USC 35, MINNESOTA (h) 18 (32-21 F)
89.0% PWE; Utah 33, NEW MEXICO 11 (56-14 F)
83.0% PWE; UTEP 33, New Mexico State 18 (42-10 F)
93.4% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 35, East Carolina 11 (49-27 F)
80.5% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 31, Maryland 17 (31-17 F)
81.8% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 33, Toledo 18 (24-37 F)
73.4% PWE; WISCONSIN 27, Arizona State 18 (20-19 F)

FEI Commentary: Disregarding FBS vs. FCS Games

2010-09-16T10:00:00.003-05:00

There will be 90 games played this year between FBS and FCS teams. But for FEI, all of those results are totally disregarded. It's never a controversial decision when the only FCS losses are suffered by teams at the bottom of the FBS heap. But after Virginia Tech and Mississippi stubbed their toes in embarrassing fashion against James Madison and Jacksonville State, does it make sense to ignore that those games ever happened?

The problem isn't that Virginia Tech's game against James Madison has no meaning. It is that it is extraordinarily difficult to measure that meaning and apply it to the Hokies rating. I don't have enough data to estimate James Madison's FEI rating without making broad brush assumptions. The Dukes may be on par with the No. 40 team in FEI. Or No. 100. Some rating systems clump FCS opponents into tiers that may be useful for that particular rating system. Instead of guessing, I choose to eliminate the unreliable data. And I do so comfortably with the assumption that Virginia Tech's other 11 games will tell us enough about the Hokies this season in the end.
Read the entire FEI Week 2 commentary.