Tuesday, January 12, 2010

FEI 2009 Final Ratings

Updated through the results of January 7th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama13-00.342
2Florida12-10.290
3Virginia Tech10-30.255
4Ohio State11-20.240
5Georgia Tech10-30.237
6Texas13-10.231
7Iowa10-20.225
8TCU11-10.215
9Oregon10-30.203
10Miami8-40.202
11Pittsburgh9-30.200
12Penn State10-20.195
13Clemson8-50.190
14Cincinnati11-10.181
15North Carolina6-50.180
16Boise State13-00.179
17LSU9-40.165
18Texas Tech8-40.162
19Stanford8-50.161
20Nebraska10-40.159
21Oklahoma7-50.157
22Wisconsin9-30.143
23USC9-40.142
24Florida State6-60.134
25Connecticut7-50.131
26Arkansas7-50.129
27Oregon State7-50.126
28Mississippi7-40.125
29Arizona7-50.118
30Georgia7-50.117
31Notre Dame6-60.113
32Auburn7-50.111
33West Virginia8-40.111
34Boston College7-50.102
35BYU11-20.098
36Central Michigan11-20.097
37Navy9-40.093
38Tennessee7-60.093
39Houston9-40.075
40Air Force7-50.072
41Michigan State5-70.071
42Oklahoma State8-40.066
43Mississippi State4-70.061
44South Carolina6-60.060
45Kentucky6-60.052
46Wake Forest4-70.050
47Northwestern7-50.048
48Purdue5-70.046
49Utah10-30.043
50UCLA7-60.042
51California7-50.041
52Rutgers7-40.034
53Minnesota5-70.033
54East Carolina8-50.030
55Temple9-30.021
56Virginia3-80.020
57South Florida6-50.010
58Washington5-70.008
59Michigan4-70.008
60Arizona State3-80.007
61Missouri7-50.000
62Kansas4-7-0.006
63Ohio8-5-0.007
64North Carolina State3-7-0.008
65Northern Illinois6-6-0.013
66Southern Mississippi6-6-0.016
67SMU7-5-0.023
68Texas A&M6-7-0.024
69Duke4-6-0.028
70Maryland1-10-0.039
71Buffalo4-7-0.042
72Vanderbilt1-10-0.048
73Indiana3-8-0.048
74Central Florida7-5-0.050
75Kansas State4-6-0.050
76Iowa State6-6-0.059
77Middle Tennessee10-3-0.061
78Bowling Green7-6-0.063
79Louisiana Tech3-8-0.068
80Illinois2-9-0.068
81Fresno State7-5-0.070
82Marshall6-6-0.072
83Colorado3-9-0.076
84Troy9-4-0.078
85Syracuse3-8-0.081
86Louisville3-8-0.091
87Baylor3-8-0.101
88Tulsa4-7-0.102
89Kent State4-7-0.102
90Western Michigan4-7-0.107
91UTEP4-8-0.112
92Ball State2-9-0.118
93Nevada8-5-0.120
94Utah State3-8-0.123
95Army4-7-0.127
96UAB5-7-0.128
97Colorado State2-9-0.140
98Toledo5-7-0.157
99Akron2-9-0.162
100Idaho8-5-0.166
101UNLV4-7-0.170
102North Texas2-10-0.173
103Arkansas State3-8-0.174
104San Diego State3-8-0.184
105Memphis1-10-0.185
106Florida International3-9-0.186
107Florida Atlantic5-7-0.193
108Wyoming6-6-0.193
109Miami (OH)1-11-0.193
110Louisiana Monroe5-6-0.200
111New Mexico1-11-0.208
112Western Kentucky0-11-0.213
113Louisiana Lafayette5-6-0.213
114Hawaii5-7-0.218
115Eastern Michigan0-12-0.234
116Tulane2-9-0.246
117Washington State1-11-0.247
118San Jose State1-10-0.263
119Rice2-10-0.285
120New Mexico State2-10-0.312

Thursday, December 17, 2009

FEI 2009-10 Bowl Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Saturday, December 19
85.2% PWE; Fresno State 33, Wyoming 15 (28-35 F) X
65.7% PWE; Rutgers 26, Central Florida 20 (45-24 F)

Sunday, December 20
70.0% PWE; Southern Mississippi 28, Middle Tennessee 20 (32-42 F) X

Tuesday, December 22
81.9% PWE; Oregon State 37, BYU 22 (20-44 F) X

Wednesday, December 23
65.2% PWE; California 25, Utah 20 (27-37 F) X

Thursday, December 24
52.5% PWE; Nevada 29, SMU 28 (10-45 F) X

Saturday, December 26
73.0% PWE; Ohio 27, Marshall 17 (17-21 F) X
67.1% PWE; Pittsburgh 26, North Carolina 20 (19-17 F)
65.3% PWE; USC 23, Boston College 17 (24-13 F)

Sunday, December 27
76.0% PWE; Clemson 28, Kentucky 17 (21-13 F)

Monday, December 28
80.0% PWE; Georgia 35, Texas A&M 21 (44-20 F)

Tuesday, December 29
71.4% PWE; Miami 30, Wisconsin 21 (14-20 F) X
58.3% PWE; UCLA 23, Temple 21 (30-21 F)

Wednesday, December 30
67.3% PWE; Arizona 24, Nebraska 17 (0-33 F) X
73.9% PWE; Bowling Green 37, Idaho 27 (42-43 F) X

Thursday, December 31
67.5% PWE; Houston 30, Air Force 24 (20-47 F) X
73.8% PWE; Minnesota 31, Iowa State 20 (13-14 F) X
62.6% PWE; Navy 28, Missouri 23 (35-13 F)
61.9% PWE; Stanford 28, Oklahoma 24 (27-31 F) X
77.6% PWE; Virginia Tech 30, Tennessee 17 (37-14 F)

Friday, January 1
70.6% PWE; Auburn 28, Northwestern 20 (38-35 F)
57.3% PWE; Florida 28, Cincinnati 26 (51-24 F)
61.8% PWE; Oregon 24, Ohio State 20 (17-26 F) X
50.2% PWE; Penn State 21, LSU 20 (19-17 F)
53.7% PWE; West Virginia 28, Florida State 27 (21-33 F) X

Saturday, January 2
76.5% PWE; Arkansas 32, East Carolina 20 (20-17 F)
60.0% PWE; Connecticut 24, South Carolina 21 (20-7 F)
62.9% PWE; Mississippi 24, Oklahoma State 19 (21-7 F)
58.4% PWE; Northern Illinois 27, South Florida 24 (3-27 F) X
70.0% PWE; Texas Tech 31, Michigan State 23 (41-31 F)

Monday, January 4
60.4% PWE; TCU 24, Boise State 20 (10-17 F) X

Tuesday, January 5
59.0% PWE; Georgia Tech 27, Iowa 24 (14-24 F) X

Wednesday, January 6
92.2% PWE; Central Michigan 38, Troy 14 (44-41 F)

Thursday, January 7
71.2% PWE; Alabama 27, Texas 18 (37-21 F)

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Week 15 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 15 Forecasts are based on the Week 14 FEI Ratings.

Saturday, December 12
91.4% PWE; Navy 34, Army 12 (17-3 F)

FEI Forecasts for all bowl games will be posted on Thursday, December 17th.

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Week 14 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of December 5th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama12-00.330
2Florida11-10.260
3Texas13-00.245
4Oregon10-20.245
5Virginia Tech9-30.240
6Cincinnati11-00.239
7Georgia Tech10-20.228
8TCU11-00.212
9Ohio State10-20.207
10Miami8-30.203
11Iowa9-20.202
12Arizona7-40.196
13Oregon State7-40.188
14Stanford8-40.187
15Pittsburgh8-30.187
16Penn State9-20.181
17LSU9-30.179
18Boise State12-00.179
19Clemson7-50.169
20USC8-40.167
21Texas Tech7-40.150
22Oklahoma6-50.148
23Arkansas6-50.137
24Nebraska9-40.131
25North Carolina6-40.124
26Notre Dame6-60.120
27Mississippi6-40.119
28Georgia6-50.119
29Wisconsin8-30.117
30Tennessee7-50.117
31Central Michigan10-20.116
32Auburn6-50.115
33Connecticut6-50.114
34West Virginia8-30.114
35Boston College7-40.113
36Florida State5-60.104
37Houston9-30.095
38South Carolina6-50.083
39Oklahoma State8-30.076
40Navy7-40.074
41Michigan State5-60.072
42California7-40.070
43Mississippi State4-70.061
44Kentucky6-50.057
45Wake Forest4-70.052
46UCLA6-60.050
47Purdue5-70.044
48BYU10-20.041
49Northwestern7-40.033
50Washington5-70.032
51Air Force6-50.030
52Minnesota5-60.027
53Missouri7-40.027
54Temple9-20.025
55East Carolina8-40.022
56Virginia3-80.022
57Arizona State3-80.022
58Rutgers6-40.018
59Utah9-30.016
60Northern Illinois6-50.010
61Michigan4-70.009
62Ohio8-40.005
63Southern Mississippi6-5-0.006
64Kansas4-7-0.007
65North Carolina State3-7-0.010
66South Florida5-5-0.015
67Texas A&M6-6-0.017
68Duke4-6-0.029
69Central Florida7-4-0.037
70Buffalo4-7-0.037
71Maryland1-10-0.040
72Vanderbilt1-10-0.046
73Fresno State7-4-0.049
74Indiana3-8-0.049
75Kansas State4-6-0.050
76Louisiana Tech3-8-0.061
77Bowling Green7-5-0.061
78Nevada8-4-0.061
79Illinois2-9-0.065
80SMU6-5-0.067
81Iowa State5-6-0.073
82Colorado3-9-0.075
83Middle Tennessee9-3-0.085
84Syracuse3-8-0.085
85Marshall5-6-0.090
86Louisville3-8-0.092
87Kent State4-7-0.098
88Baylor3-8-0.098
89Western Michigan4-7-0.100
90Troy9-3-0.105
91Tulsa4-7-0.106
92UTEP4-8-0.113
93Ball State2-9-0.114
94Utah State3-8-0.117
95UAB5-7-0.132
96Colorado State2-9-0.140
97Army4-6-0.140
98Toledo5-7-0.152
99Akron2-9-0.158
100Idaho7-5-0.161
101UNLV4-7-0.173
102North Texas2-10-0.177
103Arkansas State3-8-0.182
104Memphis1-10-0.184
105Miami (OH)1-11-0.189
106San Diego State3-8-0.190
107Florida International3-9-0.192
108Florida Atlantic5-7-0.201
109Louisiana Monroe5-6-0.206
110Hawaii5-7-0.213
111New Mexico1-11-0.214
112Wyoming5-6-0.216
113Western Kentucky0-11-0.219
114Louisiana Lafayette5-6-0.221
115Eastern Michigan0-12-0.231
116Washington State1-11-0.242
117Tulane2-9-0.250
118San Jose State1-10-0.254
119Rice2-10-0.286
120New Mexico State2-10-0.306

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Week 14 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 14 Forecasts are based on the Week 13 FEI Ratings.

Thursday, December 3
55.6% PWE; Arkansas State 28, WESTERN KENTUCKY 27 (24-20 F)
70.5% PWE; OREGON 31, Oregon State 24 (37-33 F)

Friday, December 4
73.6% PWE; Central Michigan 27, Ohio 17 (20-10 F)

Saturday, December 5
54.2% PWE; Alabama 21, Florida 20 (32-13 F)
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 54, New Mexico State 0 (42-7 F)
67.1% PWE; California 28, WASHINGTON 20 (10-42 F) X
57.0% PWE; Cincinnati 29, PITTSBURGH 26 (45-44 F)
89.4% PWE; CONNECTICUT 34, South Florida 14 (29-27 F)
63.4% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 31, Florida Atlantic 27 (21-28 F) X
50.6% PWE; Fresno State 28, ILLINOIS 27 (53-52 F)
59.7% PWE; Georgia Tech 27, Clemson 24 (39-34 F)
65.6% PWE; Houston 31, EAST CAROLINA 24 (32-38 F) X
94.0% PWE; LOUISIANA TECH 35, San Jose State 11 (55-20 F)
78.9% PWE; Texas 28, Nebraska 14 (13-12 F)
54.0% PWE; USC 26, Arizona 24 (17-21 F) X
65.1% PWE; West Virginia 30, RUTGERS 23 (24-21 F)
96.7% PWE; Wisconsin 42, HAWAII 13 (51-10 F)

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Week 13 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 28th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama11-00.302
2Florida11-00.292
3Texas12-00.242
4Virginia Tech9-30.239
5Oregon9-20.235
6Cincinnati10-00.234
7TCU11-00.221
8Ohio State10-20.211
9Georgia Tech9-20.207
10Miami8-30.205
11Iowa9-20.197
12Oregon State7-30.194
13Stanford8-40.193
14Boise State11-00.188
15Arizona6-40.179
16Pittsburgh8-20.179
17Penn State9-20.178
18LSU9-30.178
19Clemson7-40.177
20USC8-30.167
21Texas Tech7-40.161
22Oklahoma6-50.149
23Arkansas6-50.138
24North Carolina6-40.132
25Connecticut5-50.123
26Mississippi6-40.122
27Georgia6-50.120
28Notre Dame6-60.120
29Tennessee7-50.118
30Wisconsin7-30.115
31Auburn6-50.114
32Boston College7-40.113
33Nebraska9-30.113
34Central Michigan9-20.110
35California7-30.109
36Florida State5-60.105
37West Virginia7-30.104
38Houston9-20.102
39South Carolina6-50.085
40Oklahoma State8-30.078
41Navy7-40.077
42Michigan State5-60.070
43Mississippi State4-70.061
44Kentucky6-50.058
45Wake Forest4-70.053
46UCLA6-60.050
47BYU10-20.044
48Purdue5-70.043
49Air Force6-50.032
50Northwestern7-40.030
51Minnesota5-60.028
52Temple9-20.027
53Missouri7-40.027
54Virginia3-80.022
55Arizona State3-80.020
56Utah9-30.019
57Ohio8-30.011
58Northern Illinois6-50.010
59Michigan4-70.008
60Rutgers6-30.006
61East Carolina7-40.002
62Washington4-70.001
63Kansas4-7-0.006
64Southern Mississippi6-5-0.008
65North Carolina State3-7-0.009
66Texas A&M6-6-0.016
67Duke4-6-0.028
68Buffalo4-7-0.035
69Central Florida7-4-0.037
70South Florida5-4-0.037
71Maryland1-10-0.037
72Vanderbilt1-10-0.045
73Fresno State6-4-0.045
74Kansas State4-6-0.049
75Indiana3-8-0.050
76Louisiana Tech2-8-0.051
77Nevada8-4-0.054
78Bowling Green7-5-0.059
79SMU6-5-0.070
80Illinois2-8-0.072
81Iowa State5-6-0.073
82Colorado3-9-0.074
83Middle Tennessee9-3-0.087
84Syracuse3-8-0.090
85Marshall5-6-0.091
86Louisville3-8-0.095
87Kent State4-7-0.096
88Baylor3-8-0.097
89Western Michigan4-7-0.100
90Tulsa4-7-0.106
91Troy9-3-0.107
92UTEP4-8-0.111
93Utah State3-8-0.111
94Ball State2-9-0.113
95UAB5-7-0.133
96Colorado State2-9-0.137
97Army4-6-0.140
98Toledo5-7-0.151
99Idaho7-5-0.155
100Akron2-9-0.157
101UNLV4-7-0.168
102North Texas2-10-0.179
103Arkansas State2-8-0.180
104Memphis1-10-0.185
105San Diego State3-8-0.187
106Miami (OH)1-11-0.188
107Florida International3-8-0.193
108Hawaii5-6-0.194
109Florida Atlantic4-7-0.207
110Louisiana Monroe5-6-0.208
111New Mexico1-11-0.211
112Wyoming5-6-0.215
113Louisiana Lafayette5-6-0.223
114Western Kentucky0-10-0.229
115Eastern Michigan0-12-0.231
116Washington State1-11-0.241
117Tulane2-9-0.249
118San Jose State1-9-0.252
119Rice2-10-0.285
120New Mexico State2-9-0.292

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Week 13 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 13 Forecasts are based on the Week 12 FEI Ratings.

Tuesday, November 24
65.5% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 27, Ball State 21 (17-22 F) X

Thursday, November 26
93.1% PWE; Texas 39, TEXAS A&M 14 (49-39 F)

Friday, November 27
80.1% PWE; AKRON 33, Eastern Michigan 20 (28-21 F)
82.8% PWE; Alabama 31, AUBURN 14 (26-21 F)
97.1% PWE; BOISE STATE 41, Nevada 12 (44-33 F)
80.7% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 34, Toledo 20 (38-24 F)
60.0% PWE; Buffalo 27, KENT STATE 23 (9-6 F)
77.8% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31, Northern Illinois 19 (45-31 F)
98.3% PWE; CINCINNATI 45, Illinois 9 (49-36 F)
78.0% PWE; COLORADO STATE 29, Wyoming 17 (16-17 F) X
81.4% PWE; Nebraska 28, COLORADO 12 (28-20 F)
67.4% PWE; Pittsburgh 30, WEST VIRGINIA 21 (16-19 F) X
60.7% PWE; Rutgers 27, LOUISVILLE 23 (34-14 F)
60.3% PWE; Temple 22, OHIO 17 (17-35 F) X
82.5% PWE; TULSA 33, Memphis 18 (33-30 F)

Saturday, November 28
78.7% PWE; Arizona 30, ARIZONA STATE 15 (20-17 F)
65.8% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 28, North Texas 23 (30-26 F)
78.6% PWE; Boston College 28, MARYLAND 14 (19-17 F)
68.1% PWE; BYU 28, Utah 22 (26-23 F)
66.4% PWE; Central Florida 28, UAB 20 (34-27 F)
83.5% PWE; Clemson 30, SOUTH CAROLINA 13 (17-34 F) X
95.5% PWE; CONNECTICUT 37, Syracuse 11 (56-31 F)
62.6% PWE; EAST CAROLINA 28, Southern Mississippi 23 (25-20 F)
80.1% PWE; FLORIDA 35, Florida State 21 (37-10 F)
69.3% PWE; FLORIDA ATLANTIC 40, Western Kentucky 33 (29-23 F)
92.2% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 40, Georgia 17 (24-30 F) X
98.5% PWE; HOUSTON 50, Rice 10 (73-14 F)
68.7% PWE; LSU 28, Arkansas 21 (33-30 F)
61.0% PWE; Marshall 28, UTEP 23 (21-52 F) X
87.5% PWE; Miami 33, SOUTH FLORIDA 13 (31-10 F)
64.5% PWE; Middle Tennessee 23, LOUISIANA MONROE 17 (38-19 F)
68.7% PWE; Mississippi 28, MISSISSIPPI STATE 19 (27-41 F) X
60.9% PWE; Missouri 26, Kansas 23 (41-39 F)
98.5% PWE; Navy 44, HAWAII 10 (17-24 F) X
90.6% PWE; North Carolina 35, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 12 (27-28 F) X
69.6% PWE; OKLAHOMA 24, Oklahoma State 17 (27-0 F)
76.4% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 26, New Mexico State 15 (13-10 F)
96.1% PWE; SMU 37, Tulane 10 (26-21 F)
76.5% PWE; STANFORD 40, Notre Dame 29 (45-38 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU 52, New Mexico 0 (51-10 F)
54.3% PWE; Tennessee 25, KENTUCKY 24 (30-24 F)
96.1% PWE; Texas Tech 38, Baylor 10 (20-13 F)
70.4% PWE; Troy 30, LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 21 (48-31 F)
71.1% PWE; UNLV 31, San Diego State 23 (28-24 F)
83.1% PWE; USC (h) 33, UCLA 17 (28-7 F)
57.6% PWE; Utah State 34, IDAHO 31 (52-49 F)
80.4% PWE; Virginia Tech 30, VIRGINIA 15 (42-13 F)
55.9% PWE; Wake Forest 27, DUKE 25 (45-34 F)
96.6% PWE; WASHINGTON 38, Washington State 10 (30-0 F)

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Week 12 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 21st games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama10-00.286
2Florida10-00.253
3Texas11-00.247
4TCU10-00.242
5Georgia Tech9-10.238
6Cincinnati9-00.238
7Virginia Tech8-30.236
8Clemson7-30.235
9Oregon9-20.230
10Ohio State10-20.228
11North Carolina6-30.222
12Miami7-30.218
13Iowa9-20.205
14Pittsburgh8-10.202
15Oregon State7-30.192
16Penn State9-20.188
17Boise State10-00.184
18Stanford7-40.181
19Arizona5-40.180
20USC7-30.162
21Florida State5-50.157
22Texas Tech6-40.155
23LSU8-30.139
24Mississippi6-30.135
25Connecticut4-50.135
26Boston College6-40.132
27Wisconsin7-30.130
28Oklahoma5-50.123
29Navy7-30.121
30California7-30.117
31Nebraska8-30.109
32Notre Dame6-50.108
33Arkansas6-40.106
34Central Michigan8-20.103
35Houston8-20.096
36West Virginia6-30.092
37Auburn6-40.091
38Oklahoma State8-20.086
39Tennessee6-50.083
40Michigan State5-60.075
41Temple9-10.059
42Virginia3-70.055
43Georgia5-50.055
44Purdue5-70.050
45UCLA6-50.047
46Wake Forest3-70.045
47BYU9-20.043
48Kentucky6-40.040
49Northwestern7-40.038
50South Carolina5-50.035
51Minnesota5-60.034
52Air Force6-50.034
53Northern Illinois6-40.022
54Missouri6-40.022
55Mississippi State3-70.018
56Michigan4-70.013
57East Carolina6-40.013
58Utah9-20.012
59Arizona State3-70.009
60Southern Mississippi6-40.001
61Rutgers5-30.000
62Washington3-7-0.001
63Duke4-5-0.005
64South Florida5-3-0.009
65Kansas4-6-0.012
66Ohio7-3-0.013
67Texas A&M6-5-0.026
68North Carolina State2-7-0.028
69Central Florida6-4-0.030
70Buffalo3-7-0.036
71Maryland1-9-0.039
72SMU5-5-0.040
73Indiana3-8-0.042
74Vanderbilt1-10-0.052
75Marshall5-5-0.053
76Kansas State4-6-0.053
77Fresno State6-4-0.054
78Bowling Green6-5-0.055
79Louisiana Tech2-8-0.057
80Nevada8-3-0.061
81Illinois2-7-0.072
82Louisville3-7-0.075
83Iowa State5-6-0.078
84Colorado3-8-0.079
85Syracuse3-7-0.084
86Tulsa3-7-0.090
87Western Michigan4-6-0.100
88Kent State4-6-0.106
89Middle Tennessee8-3-0.107
90Troy8-3-0.112
91Baylor3-7-0.114
92Utah State2-8-0.116
93Ball State1-9-0.121
94UTEP3-8-0.128
95UAB5-6-0.135
96Colorado State2-8-0.140
97Army4-6-0.142
98Akron1-9-0.145
99Toledo5-6-0.155
100UNLV3-7-0.161
101Arkansas State1-8-0.171
102Idaho7-4-0.174
103Miami (OH)1-11-0.187
104North Texas2-9-0.192
105Florida International3-8-0.198
106Memphis1-9-0.201
107Louisiana Monroe5-5-0.202
108Florida Atlantic3-7-0.203
109San Diego State3-7-0.205
110New Mexico1-10-0.218
111Wyoming4-6-0.223
112Hawaii4-6-0.229
113Washington State1-10-0.235
114Louisiana Lafayette5-5-0.238
115Western Kentucky0-9-0.239
116Eastern Michigan0-11-0.240
117San Jose State0-9-0.242
118Rice2-9-0.253
119Tulane2-8-0.266
120New Mexico State2-8-0.315

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Week 12 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 11 Forecasts are based on the Week 11 FEI Ratings.

Wednesday, November 18
69.2% PWE; Buffalo 30, MIAMI (OH) 20 (42-17 F)
82.6% PWE; Central Michigan 31, BALL STATE 14 (35-3 F)

Thursday, November 19
93.5% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 34, Colorado 10 (31-28 F)

Friday, November 20
95.2% PWE; Boise State 38, UTAH STATE 10 (52-21 F)
78.8% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 29, Akron 17 (36-20 F)
78.1% PWE; TOLEDO 35, Eastern Michigan 23 (47-21 F)

Saturday, November 21
78.2% PWE; ARKANSAS 33, Mississippi State 21 (42-21 F)
58.8% PWE; Army 24, NORTH TEXAS 21 (17-13 F)
51.1% PWE; BYU 24, Air Force 23 (38-21 F)
95.0% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 35, Tulane 10 (49-0 F)
91.0% PWE; CLEMSON 31, Virginia 9 (34-21 F)
58.8% PWE; Colorado State 28, NEW MEXICO 24 (27-29 F) X
88.2% PWE; EAST CAROLINA (h) 35, UAB 16 (37-21 F)
98.5% PWE; FLORIDA 47, Florida International 0 (62-3 F)
94.0% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 41, Maryland 17 (29-26 F)
64.4% PWE; FRESNO STATE 30, Louisiana Tech 24 (30-28 F)
71.6% PWE; GEORGIA 30, Kentucky 22 (27-34 F) X
97.7% PWE; HOUSTON 45, Memphis 14 (55-14 F)
93.4% PWE; IOWA 35, Minnesota 11 (12-0 F)
51.7% PWE; LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 21, Louisiana Monroe 19 (21-17 F)
52.8% PWE; LSU 21, MISSISSIPPI (h) 20 (23-25 F) X
59.4% PWE; MARSHALL (h) 24, SMU 20 (34-31 F)
92.8% PWE; MIAMI 37, Duke 14 (34-16 F)
68.2% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24, Arkansas State 17 (38-14 F)
80.2% PWE; MISSOURI 34, Iowa State 21 (34-24 F)
92.5% PWE; NEBRASKA 33, Kansas State 10 (17-3 F)
84.8% PWE; Nevada 33, NEW MEXICO STATE 14 (63-20 F)
57.5% PWE; North Carolina 20, BOSTON COLLEGE 17 (31-13 F)
56.6% PWE; Northern Illinois 23, OHIO 21 (31-38 F) X
64.0% PWE; NOTRE DAME 33, Connecticut 28 (30-33 F) X
85.4% PWE; Ohio State 33, MICHIGAN 14 (21-10 F)
54.9% PWE; Oklahoma 23, TEXAS TECH 21 (13-41 F) X
50.9% PWE; Oregon 26, ARIZONA 25 (44-41 F)
98.5% PWE; Oregon State 45, WASHINGTON STATE 3 (42-10 F)
59.8% PWE; Penn State 27, MICHIGAN STATE 23 (42-14 F)
60.3% PWE; Purdue 27, INDIANA 23 (38-21 F)
75.0% PWE; Rutgers 28, SYRACUSE 16 (13-31 F) X
51.4% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 28, Hawaii 27 (10-17 F) X
75.7% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 27, Louisville 17 (34-22 F)
81.3% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 34, Tulsa 20 (44-34 F)
84.8% PWE; STANFORD 39, California 23 (28-34 F) X
98.5% PWE; TCU 45, WYOMING (h) 0 (45-10 F)
84.9% PWE; TEMPLE 31, Kent State 14 (47-13 F)
87.9% PWE; TENNESSEE 31, Vanderbilt 12 (31-16 F)
96.6% PWE; TEXAS 38, Kansas 10 (51-20 F)
68.4% PWE; TEXAS A&M 28, Baylor 21 (38-3 F)
76.3% PWE; TROY 39, Florida Atlantic 28 (47-21 F)
68.8% PWE; UCLA 24, Arizona State 17 (23-13 F)
90.8% PWE; UTAH 35, San Diego State 13 (38-7 F)
70.0% PWE; UTEP 33, RICE (h) 23 (29-30 F) X
96.6% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 42, North Carolina State 14 (38-10 F)
69.4% PWE; Wisconsin 29, NORTHWESTERN 20 (31-33 F) X

Week 11 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 15th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.
RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama10-00.280
2TCU9-00.253
3Texas10-00.249
4Florida9-00.247
5Georgia Tech9-10.246
6Cincinnati9-00.242
7Virginia Tech7-30.234
8Clemson6-30.230
9Ohio State9-20.222
10Iowa8-20.217
11Oregon8-20.206
12Pittsburgh8-10.205
13North Carolina5-30.198
14Miami6-30.197
15Oregon State6-30.191
16Stanford7-30.189
17Boise State9-00.179
18Arizona5-30.178
19Oklahoma5-40.174
20Penn State8-20.170
21USC7-30.153
22LSU8-20.153
23Florida State4-50.151
24Boston College6-30.140
25Wisconsin7-20.133
26Nebraska7-30.129
27Texas Tech5-40.128
28Navy7-30.123
29Notre Dame6-40.118
30Mississippi5-30.117
31Connecticut3-50.102
32Michigan State5-50.101
33Oklahoma State7-20.097
34Central Michigan7-20.096
35Arkansas5-40.094
36Tennessee5-50.086
37Auburn6-40.083
38Houston7-20.081
39West Virginia6-30.075
40California6-30.062
41Virginia3-60.058
42Georgia5-40.057
43Air Force6-40.056
44Wake Forest3-70.054
45Temple8-10.046
46UCLA5-50.038
47Purdue4-70.036
48BYU8-20.035
49Rutgers5-20.033
50South Carolina5-50.031
51Northern Illinois6-30.028
52Missouri5-40.023
53Minnesota5-50.023
54Kansas4-50.015
55Northwestern6-40.012
56East Carolina5-40.011
57Kentucky5-40.011
58Mississippi State3-60.011
59Michigan4-60.010
60Duke4-40.009
61Southern Mississippi5-40.007
62Arizona State3-60.004
63Utah8-20.000
64North Carolina State2-60.000
65Washington3-7-0.005
66South Florida4-3-0.013
67Ohio6-3-0.026
68Indiana3-7-0.036
69Central Florida5-4-0.042
70Texas A&M5-5-0.046
71Maryland1-8-0.050
72Fresno State5-4-0.052
73Marshall4-5-0.053
74SMU5-4-0.055
75Buffalo2-7-0.056
76Kansas State4-5-0.056
77Bowling Green5-5-0.056
78Vanderbilt1-9-0.063
79Louisiana Tech2-7-0.069
80Iowa State5-5-0.074
81Illinois2-7-0.076
82Baylor3-6-0.077
83Kent State4-5-0.081
84Louisville3-6-0.081
85Nevada7-3-0.082
86Tulsa3-6-0.097
87Western Michigan4-6-0.098
88Ball State1-8-0.098
89Colorado3-7-0.098
90Utah State2-7-0.114
91Middle Tennessee7-3-0.115
92Troy7-3-0.115
93Syracuse2-7-0.118
94UTEP3-7-0.132
95Army3-6-0.132
96UAB5-5-0.139
97Akron1-8-0.144
98Arkansas State1-7-0.145
99Colorado State2-7-0.150
100Toledo4-6-0.151
101UNLV3-7-0.164
102Florida International3-7-0.165
103San Diego State3-6-0.171
104Idaho7-4-0.174
105Miami (OH)1-10-0.175
106Memphis1-8-0.179
107Florida Atlantic3-6-0.188
108North Texas2-8-0.196
109Louisiana Monroe5-4-0.203
110New Mexico0-10-0.215
111Wyoming4-5-0.218
112Louisiana Lafayette4-5-0.222
113Hawaii3-6-0.229
114Eastern Michigan0-10-0.235
115Western Kentucky0-9-0.236
116Washington State1-9-0.241
117San Jose State0-8-0.250
118Tulane2-7-0.253
119Rice1-9-0.256
120New Mexico State2-7-0.290