Sunday, May 15, 2011

Moving on up

I've launched the new home of BCF Toys, a site dedicated to featuring my college football program, team, unit, and schedule ratings, season and game projections, data visualizations and more.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

FEI Final 2010 Ratings

RkTeamW-LFEI
RkTeamW-LFEI
RkTeamW-LFEI
1Auburn13-0.34841Northern Illinois10-3.07481UCLA4-8-.078
2Stanford11-1.30242Air Force8-4.06582Iowa State4-7-.087
3Alabama9-3.28143Syracuse6-5.06083California4-7-.088
4Oregon11-1.26744Arizona6-6.05684UAB4-8-.089
5Virginia Tech11-2.24945Kentucky5-7.05385North Texas3-9-.091
6LSU10-2.24746Oregon State5-7.05386Fresno State7-5-.100
7Arkansas9-3.24547Utah10-3.05287W. Kentucky2-10-.102
8Ohio State12-1.23448Kansas State6-6.04688Purdue3-8-.102
9Oklahoma12-2.23149Connecticut7-5.04489Indiana4-7-.105
10TCU12-0.22950Boston College6-6.04090Middle Tenn.5-7-.107
11Boise State12-1.21351Southern Miss.7-5.01891Louisiana Tech4-7-.112
12Wisconsin10-2.21152Georgia Tech5-7.01892Kent State4-7-.124
13NC State8-4.20953Tulsa9-3.01393Toledo8-5-.126
14West Virginia8-4.19054Cincinnati3-8.00794Ohio7-5-.128
15Missouri9-3.19055Michigan6-6.00595LA-Monroe4-7-.128
16South Carolina8-5.18556Penn State6-6.00496Washington State1-10-.129
17Oklahoma State11-2.18457FIU7-6.00397LA-Lafayette3-9-.136
18Florida State9-4.18258Washington7-6-.00498Vanderbilt2-10-.144
19Nebraska9-4.17959Tennessee5-7-.01399Florida Atlantic4-8-.148
20Pittsburgh7-5.16860Arkansas State4-8-.014100Tulane3-8-.151
21Iowa7-5.16161Army6-6-.015101UTEP5-7-.153
22Miami6-6.14362Hawaii9-4-.015102Idaho5-7-.155
23Notre Dame8-5.14063Mississippi4-7-.015103Bowling Green2-10-.159
24Maryland8-4.13064Troy8-5-.017104Miami (OH)10-4-.159
25Clemson5-7.13065Texas Tech7-5-.020105Wake Forest2-9-.161
26USC8-5.12466BYU7-6-.021106Marshall5-7-.164
27Mississippi State8-4.12367Western Michigan5-6-.026107Utah State3-8-.174
28Texas A&M8-4.12068SMU7-7-.029108Buffalo1-10-.188
29Nevada12-1.10769Rutgers3-8-.030109Ball State3-7-.194
30South Florida7-5.10770Temple7-4-.031110Kansas3-8-.197
31Louisville6-6.10271Northwestern6-6-.035111Wyoming2-9-.204
32Navy8-4.10272Texas5-7-.038112Rice4-8-.205
33North Carolina7-5.10273Baylor6-6-.048113San Jose State0-11-.208
34Georgia5-7.09674Houston4-7-.049114Eastern Michigan2-10-.239
35Illinois6-6.09075East Carolina6-7-.052115Akron1-10-.241
36Florida7-5.08776Minnesota3-8-.054116UNLV2-11-.287
37Arizona State4-6.08677Duke2-9-.063117New Mexico1-11-.289
38Central Florida10-3.08478Central Michigan2-9-.069118Memphis1-11-.290
39Michigan State10-2.08279Colorado5-7-.077119Colorado State3-9-.291
40San Diego State8-4.08080Virginia2-8-.078120N. Mexico State2-10-.305

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

AP Top 25 Scheduling Update

YearTeamsIndFBS
Games
FCS
Games
Bowl
Games
T25
Games
Pct of
Games
T25
Bowls
T25
Conf
CG
T25
Conf
T25
Non
Conf
T25
vs FCS
1989106255825018528.9%10019232
1990107265796719498.5%100211810
1991107195865318467.8%90162110
1992107165884918447.5%912597
1993106115854719467.9%7127115
1994107125934319457.6%812797
1995108135974318447.4%8025117
1996111116144818467.5%9324105
199711296283820467.3%822971
199811286274722487.7%9126124
199911476335323558.7%923686
200011586415525457.0%822786
200111776525725487.4%1012894
200211767076528486.8%71251511
200311746997228446.3%932489
200411726515628365.5%912068
200511946645428446.6%922769
200611947147832446.2%8127815
200711937128032456.3%9329418
200812047178734466.4%9227822
200912037149434395.5%7323617
201012037189035446.1%7329521

Ind - Independent teams; T25 Games - Games played between teams that finished the year ranked in the final AP top-25 poll; T25 Conf CG - Conference championship games played between final AP top-25 teams. Though these games are scheduled before the season, the participants are not known until the end of the regular season; T25 Conf - Conference games between final AP top-25 teams; T25 Non Conf - Non-conference regular season games between AP top-25 teams, including independents.

*** *** *** *** ***

This data was first collected and published in March along with a companion infographic, and has been updated to include the final Associated Press top-25 rankings data for the 2010 college football season. Only five regular season non-conference games were played this year between teams that were ranked in the final AP top-25 poll:
  • September 6:  No. 9 Boise State vs. No. 16 Virginia Tech
  • September 11: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 17 Florida State
  • September 11: No. 21 Central Florida vs. No. 25 North Carolina State
  • September 18: No. 13 Oklahoma State vs. No. 24 Tulsa
  • October 9: No. 12 Arkansas vs. No. 19 Texas A&M
Adding seven bowl games, a grand total of 12 non-conference games were played between Associated Press final top-25 teams in 2010.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

FEI Forecasts: Bowls (Dec. 18 - Jan. 10)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. All bowl game sites are considered neutral.

Saturday, December 18
69.4% PWE; BYU 28, UTEP 20 (52-24 F)
77.3% PWE; Northern Illinois 33, Fresno State 20 (40-17 F)
57.9% PWE; Troy 25, Ohio 23 (48-21 F)

Tuesday, December 21
71.8% PWE; Louisville 30, Southern Mississippi 21 (31-28 F)

Wednesday, December 22
85.7% PWE; Boise State 31, Utah 13 (26-3 F)

Thursday, December 23
76.9% PWE; Navy 33, San Diego State 21 (14-35 F)

Friday, December 24
52.8% PWE; Hawaii 28, Tulsa 27 (35-62 F)

Sunday, December 26
80.2% PWE; Florida International 31, Toledo 17 (34-32 F)

Monday, December 27
59.1% PWE; Air Force 30, Georgia Tech 27 (14-7 F)

Tuesday, December 28
60.9% PWE; Missouri 24, Iowa 20 (24-27 F)
55.5% PWE; West Virginia 21, North Carolina State 19 (7-23 F)

Wednesday, December 29
80.6% PWE; Illinois 35, Baylor 20 (38-14 F)
84.9% PWE; Maryland 38, East Carolina 21 (51-20 F)
75.9% PWE; Oklahoma State 33, Arizona 21 (36-10 F)

Thursday, December 30
55.9% PWE; Army 27, SMU 25 (16-14 F)
94.9% PWE; Nebraska 37, Washington 11 (7-19 F)
78.9% PWE; North Carolina 31, Tennessee 17 (30-27 F)
50.1% PWE; Syracuse 25, Kansas State 24 (36-34 F)

Friday, December 31
63.2% PWE; Clemson 21, South Florida 16 (26-31 F)
60.1% PWE; Georgia 27, Central Florida 24 (6-10 F)
68.3% PWE; Miami 24, Notre Dame 17 (17-33 F)
58.2% PWE; South Carolina 30, Florida State 27 (17-26 F)

Saturday, January 1
74.9% PWE; Alabama 31, Michigan State 20 (49-7 F)
66.4% PWE; Florida 27, Penn State 21 (37-24 F)
65.1% PWE; Mississippi State 30, Michigan 24 (52-14 F)
87.5% PWE; Oklahoma 32, Connecticut 13 (48-20 F)
51.3% PWE; Texas Tech 27, Northwestern 26 (45-38 F)
59.9% PWE; Wisconsin 27, TCU 24 (19-21 F)

Monday, January 3
52.2% PWE; Virginia Tech 26, Stanford 25 (12-40 F)

Tuesday, January 4
56.9% PWE; Arkansas 26, Ohio State 24 (26-31 F)

Thursday, January 6
66.2% PWE; Middle Tennessee 23, Miami (OH) 17 (21-35 F)

Friday, January 7
70.5% PWE; LSU 26, Texas A&M 17 (41-24 F)

Saturday, January 8
70.1% PWE; Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 23 (27-10 F)

Sunday, January 9
68.3% PWE; Nevada 28, Boston College 21 (20-13 F)

Monday, January 10
69.2% PWE; Auburn 31, Oregon 23 (22-19 F)

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Best and Worst Kickers in 2010


Following up on last week's Lou Groza Finalists infographic, the nation's best and worst place kicking teams according to field goal efficiency (FGE) are provided in the graphic above. Nebraska's Alex Henery was not named a Groza Award finalist, but did receive an Associated Press first-team All-American honor this week.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

FEI Ratings: Week 15

RkTeamW-LFEI
RkTeamW-LFEI
RkTeamW-LFEI
1Auburn12-0.33441Northern Illinois9-3.06281Colorado5-7-.073
2Virginia Tech11-1.27142Arizona6-5.06282Virginia2-8-.073
3Stanford10-1.26543Air Force7-4.05083UCLA4-8-.083
4Oregon11-0.26044Michigan6-5.04884Iowa State4-7-.088
5Alabama8-3.25845Connecticut7-4.04885UAB4-8-.092
6Arkansas9-2.25146Oregon State5-7.04686North Texas3-9-.093
7Ohio State11-1.23247Syracuse5-5.04487California4-7-.094
8Oklahoma11-2.23148Kansas State6-5.04488Purdue3-8-.096
9Wisconsin10-1.22749Utah10-2.04489Indiana4-7-.099
10LSU9-2.22650Boston College6-5.03490W. Kentucky2-10-.102
11Boise State11-1.21451Georgia Tech5-6.02391Louisiana Tech4-7-.103
12Nebraska9-3.20252Penn State6-5.01992Middle Tenn.5-6-.104
13Missouri9-2.19853San Diego State7-4.01993Kent State4-7-.113
14TCU11-0.19754Southern Miss.7-4.01094UTEP5-6-.128
15West Virginia8-3.19755Cincinnati3-8.00595Toledo8-4-.132
16South Carolina8-4.18756FIU6-6.00496LA Monroe4-7-.133
17NC State7-4.18257Hawaii9-3.00197Washington State1-10-.133
18Miami6-5.17658Tulsa8-3-.00698LA Lafayette3-9-.134
19Oklahoma State10-2.17359Mississippi4-7-.00999Vanderbilt2-10-.142
20Iowa6-5.16460Arkansas State4-8-.015100Tulane3-8-.149
21Florida State8-4.16361Army5-6-.016101Florida Atlantic4-8-.149
22Michigan State10-1.15262Western Michigan5-6-.022102Idaho5-7-.149
23Pittsburgh6-5.15063Temple7-4-.023103Bowling Green2-10-.152
24Texas A&M8-3.14664Tennessee5-6-.023104Marshall5-7-.153
25Navy8-3.13665Texas Tech6-5-.024105Wake Forest2-9-.161
26Clemson5-6.13266Northwestern6-5-.027106Miami (OH)9-4-.162
27Maryland7-4.12567Rutgers3-8-.032107Utah State3-8-.174
28USC8-5.12068SMU7-6-.033108Buffalo1-10-.183
29Notre Dame7-5.10769Texas5-7-.035109Ball State3-7-.191
30North Carolina6-5.10670Baylor6-5-.041110Kansas3-8-.194
31Nevada11-1.10371East Carolina6-6-.041111Rice4-8-.202
32Georgia5-6.10172Troy7-5-.047112San Jose State0-11-.204
33Mississippi State7-4.10073Minnesota3-8-.048113Wyoming2-9-.210
34Illinois5-6.09874Washington6-6-.049114Akron1-10-.235
35Louisville5-6.09875Houston4-7-.050115Eastern Michigan2-10-.236
36South Florida6-5.08876BYU6-6-.053116Memphis1-11-.291
37Florida6-5.07877Duke2-9-.057117UNLV2-11-.291
38Arizona State4-6.07878Fresno State7-4-.058118New Mexico1-11-.293
39Kentucky5-6.07179Central Michigan2-9-.066119Colorado State3-9-.295
40Central Florida9-3.07080Ohio7-4-.069120N. Mexico St.2-10-.301

Friday, December 10, 2010

FEI Forecasts: Week 15 (Dec. 11)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Saturday, December 11
82.2% PWE; Navy 37, Army 21 (31-17 F)

FEI Forecasts for all bowl games will be posted on Thursday, December 16th.

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

FEI Ratings: Week 14

RkTeamW-LFEI
RkTeamW-LFEI
RkTeamW-LFEI
1Auburn12-0.33441Northern Illinois9-3.06281Colorado5-7-.073
2Virginia Tech11-1.27142Arizona6-5.06282Virginia2-8-.073
3Stanford10-1.26543Air Force7-4.05083UCLA4-8-.083
4Oregon11-0.26044Connecticut7-4.04884Iowa State4-7-.088
5Alabama8-3.25845Michigan6-5.04885UAB4-8-.092
6Arkansas9-2.25146Oregon State5-7.04686North Texas3-9-.093
7Ohio State11-1.23247Syracuse5-5.04587California4-7-.094
8Oklahoma11-2.23048Kansas State6-5.04488Purdue3-8-.096
9Wisconsin10-1.22749Utah10-2.04489Indiana4-7-.099
10LSU9-2.22650Boston College6-5.03490W. Kentucky2-10-.102
11Boise State11-1.21451Georgia Tech5-6.02291Louisiana Tech4-7-.103
12Nebraska9-3.20252Penn State6-5.01992Middle Tenn.5-6-.104
13Missouri9-2.19853San Diego State7-4.01993Kent State4-7-.113
14West Virginia8-3.19754Southern Miss.7-4.01094UTEP5-6-.128
15TCU11-0.19755Cincinnati3-8.00595Toledo8-4-.132
16South Carolina8-4.18756FIU6-6.00496LA-Monroe4-7-.133
17NC State7-4.18257Hawaii9-3.00197Washington State1-10-.133
18Miami6-5.17658Tulsa8-3-.00698LA-Lafayette3-9-.134
19Oklahoma State10-2.17359Mississippi4-7-.00999Vanderbilt2-10-.142
20Iowa6-5.16460Army5-5-.015100Tulane3-8-.149
21Florida State8-4.16361Arkansas State4-8-.015101Florida Atlantic4-8-.149
22Michigan State10-1.15362Western Michigan5-6-.022102Idaho5-7-.149
23Pittsburgh6-5.15063Temple7-4-.022103Bowling Green2-10-.152
24Texas A&M8-3.14564Tennessee5-6-.023104Marshall5-7-.153
25Navy7-3.13465Texas Tech6-5-.024105Wake Forest2-9-.161
26Clemson5-6.13266Northwestern6-5-.027106Miami (OH)9-4-.161
27Maryland7-4.12467Rutgers3-8-.032107Utah State3-8-.174
28USC8-5.12068SMU7-6-.033108Buffalo1-10-.182
29Notre Dame7-5.10769Texas5-7-.035109Ball State3-7-.191
30North Carolina6-5.10670Baylor6-5-.041110Kansas3-8-.194
31Nevada11-1.10371East Carolina6-6-.041111Rice4-8-.203
32Georgia5-6.10172Troy7-5-.047112San Jose State0-11-.204
33Mississippi State7-4.10073Minnesota3-8-.048113Wyoming2-9-.210
34Illinois5-6.09874Washington6-6-.049114Akron1-10-.235
35Louisville5-6.09875Houston4-7-.050115Eastern Michigan2-10-.236
36South Florida6-5.08876BYU6-6-.053116Memphis1-11-.291
37Florida6-5.07877Duke2-9-.058117UNLV2-11-.291
38Arizona State4-6.07878Fresno State7-4-.058118New Mexico1-11-.293
39Kentucky5-6.07179Central Michigan2-9-.066119Colorado State3-9-.295
40Central Florida9-3.07080Ohio7-4-.069120N. Mexico St.2-10-.301

Lou Groza Award Finalists


A field goal is worth three points. But the value of each successful field goal is partially attributed to the offense that moves into field goal range as well as the player that kicks the ball through the uprights. A failed field goal attempt is a forfeiture of scoring value created by the offense. The value of a 47-yard field goal is equally earned by the offense and kicker, 50 percent each. 84 percent of the value of a 27-yard field goal is earned by the offense. 99 percent of the value of a 57-yard field goal is earned by the kicker.


The Lou Groza Award is given annually to the nation’s top collegiate place-kicker as determined by a voting panel of college football coaches and media members. The field goal statistics of the 2010 award finalists are visualized in the graphic above. For each kicker, the number of attempts and successful field goals are included, as well as the total scoring value gained and forfeited on those attempts. Field goal efficiency (FGE) is the average scoring value gained per attempted kick.
A graphic representation of each kick is plotted at the line of scrimmage of the given field goal attempt. The gray area represents the scoring value provided by the offense. The blue area represents the scoring value provided by the kicker. The red area represents the scoring value earned by the offense that was forfeited by the kicker on a failed attempt. Click here for a larger view of the graphic. For more information about the Lou Groza Award, visit http://www.lougrozaaward.com/.

Thursday, December 02, 2010

FEI Forecasts: Week 14 (Dec. 2 - 4)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Thursday, December 2
57.3% PWE; ARIZONA 27, Arizona State 24 (29-30 F)

Friday, December 3
81.6% PWE; Illinois 30, FRESNO STATE 14 (23-25 F)
96.5% PWE; Northern Illinois 40, Miami (OH) 11 (21-26 F)

Saturday, December 4
73.8% PWE; Auburn 34, South Carolina 23 (56-17 F)
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 50, Utah State 6 (50-14 F)
80.7% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA (h) 31, SMU 17 (17-7 F)
85.2% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 30, Middle Tennessee 13 (27-28 F)
98.2% PWE; HAWAII (h) 42, UNLV 9 (59-21 F)
77.8% PWE; IDAHO 31, San Jose State 19 (26-23 F)
80.4% PWE; Nevada 36, LOUISIANA TECH 20 (35-17 F)
56.7% PWE; Oklahoma 24, Nebraska 22 (23-20 F)
84.0% PWE; Oregon 35, OREGON STATE 17 (37-20 F)
70.3% PWE; Pittsburgh 31, CINCINNATI 21 (28-10 F)
77.0% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 26, Connecticut 15 (16-19 F)
54.9% PWE; Troy 24, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 23 (44-7 F)
82.2% PWE; USC 33, UCLA (h) 16 (28-14 F)
68.4% PWE; Virginia Tech 30, FLORIDA STATE 23 (44-33 F)
63.7% PWE; Washington 30, WASHINGTON STATE 24 (35-28 F)
95.7% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 33, Rutgers 6 (35-14 F)