Week 12 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 11 Forecasts are based on the Week 11 FEI Ratings.

Wednesday, November 18
69.2% PWE; Buffalo 30, MIAMI (OH) 20
82.6% PWE; Central Michigan 31, BALL STATE 14

Thursday, November 19
93.5% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 34, Colorado 10

Friday, November 20
95.2% PWE; Boise State 38, UTAH STATE 10
78.8% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 29, Akron 17
78.1% PWE; TOLEDO 35, Eastern Michigan 23

Saturday, November 21
78.2% PWE; ARKANSAS 33, Mississippi State 21
63.8% PWE; Arkansas State 33, WESTERN KENTUCKY 27
58.8% PWE; Army 24, NORTH TEXAS 21
51.1% PWE; BYU 24, Air Force 23
95.0% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 35, Tulane 10
91.0% PWE; CLEMSON 31, Virginia 9
58.8% PWE; Colorado State 28, NEW MEXICO 24
88.2% PWE; EAST CAROLINA (h) 35, UAB 16
98.5% PWE; FLORIDA 47, Florida International 0
94.0% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 41, Maryland 17
64.4% PWE; FRESNO STATE 30, Louisiana Tech 24
71.6% PWE; GEORGIA 30, Kentucky 22
97.7% PWE; HOUSTON 45, Memphis 14
93.4% PWE; IOWA 35, Minnesota 11
51.7% PWE; LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 21, Louisiana Monroe 19
52.8% PWE; LSU 21, MISSISSIPPI (h) 20
59.4% PWE; MARSHALL (h) 24, SMU 20
92.8% PWE; MIAMI 37, Duke 14
68.2% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24, Arkansas State 17
80.2% PWE; MISSOURI 34, Iowa State 21
92.5% PWE; NEBRASKA 33, Kansas State 10
84.8% PWE; Nevada 33, NEW MEXICO STATE 14
57.5% PWE; North Carolina 20, BOSTON COLLEGE 17
56.6% PWE; Northern Illinois 23, OHIO 21
64.0% PWE; NOTRE DAME 33, Connecticut 28
85.4% PWE; Ohio State 33, MICHIGAN 14
54.9% PWE; Oklahoma 23, TEXAS TECH 21
50.9% PWE; Oregon 26, ARIZONA 25
98.5% PWE; Oregon State 45, WASHINGTON STATE 3
59.8% PWE; Penn State 27, MICHIGAN STATE 23
60.3% PWE; Purdue 27, INDIANA 23
75.0% PWE; Rutgers 28, SYRACUSE 16
51.4% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 28, Hawaii 27
75.7% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 27, Louisville 17
81.3% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 34, Tulsa 20
84.8% PWE; STANFORD 39, California 23
98.5% PWE; TCU 45, WYOMING (h) 0
84.9% PWE; TEMPLE 31, Kent State 14
87.9% PWE; TENNESSEE 31, Vanderbilt 12
96.6% PWE; TEXAS 38, Kansas 10
68.4% PWE; TEXAS A&M 28, Baylor 21
76.3% PWE; TROY 39, Florida Atlantic 28
68.8% PWE; UCLA 24, Arizona State 17
90.8% PWE; UTAH 35, San Diego State 13
70.0% PWE; UTEP 33, RICE (h) 23
96.6% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 42, North Carolina State 14
69.4% PWE; Wisconsin 29, NORTHWESTERN 20

Week 11 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 15th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	10-0	0.280
2	TCU	9-0	0.253
3	Texas	10-0	0.249
4	Florida	9-0	0.247
5	Georgia Tech	9-1	0.246
6	Cincinnati	9-0	0.242
7	Virginia Tech	7-3	0.234
8	Clemson	6-3	0.230
9	Ohio State	9-2	0.222
10	Iowa	8-2	0.217
11	Oregon	8-2	0.206
12	Pittsburgh	8-1	0.205
13	North Carolina	5-3	0.198
14	Miami	6-3	0.197
15	Oregon State	6-3	0.191
16	Stanford	7-3	0.189
17	Boise State	9-0	0.179
18	Arizona	5-3	0.178
19	Oklahoma	5-4	0.174
20	Penn State	8-2	0.170
21	USC	7-3	0.153
22	LSU	8-2	0.153
23	Florida State	4-5	0.151
24	Boston College	6-3	0.140
25	Wisconsin	7-2	0.133
26	Nebraska	7-3	0.129
27	Texas Tech	5-4	0.128
28	Navy	7-3	0.123
29	Notre Dame	6-4	0.118
30	Mississippi	5-3	0.117
31	Connecticut	3-5	0.102
32	Michigan State	5-5	0.101
33	Oklahoma State	7-2	0.097
34	Central Michigan	7-2	0.096
35	Arkansas	5-4	0.094
36	Tennessee	5-5	0.086
37	Auburn	6-4	0.083
38	Houston	7-2	0.081
39	West Virginia	6-3	0.075
40	California	6-3	0.062
41	Virginia	3-6	0.058
42	Georgia	5-4	0.057
43	Air Force	6-4	0.056
44	Wake Forest	3-7	0.054
45	Temple	8-1	0.046
46	UCLA	5-5	0.038
47	Purdue	4-7	0.036
48	BYU	8-2	0.035
49	Rutgers	5-2	0.033
50	South Carolina	5-5	0.031
51	Northern Illinois	6-3	0.028
52	Missouri	5-4	0.023
53	Minnesota	5-5	0.023
54	Kansas	4-5	0.015
55	Northwestern	6-4	0.012
56	East Carolina	5-4	0.011
57	Kentucky	5-4	0.011
58	Mississippi State	3-6	0.011
59	Michigan	4-6	0.010
60	Duke	4-4	0.009
61	Southern Mississippi	5-4	0.007
62	Arizona State	3-6	0.004
63	Utah	8-2	0.000
64	North Carolina State	2-6	0.000
65	Washington	3-7	-0.005
66	South Florida	4-3	-0.013
67	Ohio	6-3	-0.026
68	Indiana	3-7	-0.036
69	Central Florida	5-4	-0.042
70	Texas A&M	5-5	-0.046
71	Maryland	1-8	-0.050
72	Fresno State	5-4	-0.052
73	Marshall	4-5	-0.053
74	SMU	5-4	-0.055
75	Buffalo	2-7	-0.056
76	Kansas State	4-5	-0.056
77	Bowling Green	5-5	-0.056
78	Vanderbilt	1-9	-0.063
79	Louisiana Tech	2-7	-0.069
80	Iowa State	5-5	-0.074
81	Illinois	2-7	-0.076
82	Baylor	3-6	-0.077
83	Kent State	4-5	-0.081
84	Louisville	3-6	-0.081
85	Nevada	7-3	-0.082
86	Tulsa	3-6	-0.097
87	Western Michigan	4-6	-0.098
88	Ball State	1-8	-0.098
89	Colorado	3-7	-0.098
90	Utah State	2-7	-0.114
91	Middle Tennessee	7-3	-0.115
92	Troy	7-3	-0.115
93	Syracuse	2-7	-0.118
94	UTEP	3-7	-0.132
95	Army	3-6	-0.132
96	UAB	5-5	-0.139
97	Akron	1-8	-0.144
98	Arkansas State	1-7	-0.145
99	Colorado State	2-7	-0.150
100	Toledo	4-6	-0.151
101	UNLV	3-7	-0.164
102	Florida International	3-7	-0.165
103	San Diego State	3-6	-0.171
104	Idaho	7-4	-0.174
105	Miami (OH)	1-10	-0.175
106	Memphis	1-8	-0.179
107	Florida Atlantic	3-6	-0.188
108	North Texas	2-8	-0.196
109	Louisiana Monroe	5-4	-0.203
110	New Mexico	0-10	-0.215
111	Wyoming	4-5	-0.218
112	Louisiana Lafayette	4-5	-0.222
113	Hawaii	3-6	-0.229
114	Eastern Michigan	0-10	-0.235
115	Western Kentucky	0-9	-0.236
116	Washington State	1-9	-0.241
117	San Jose State	0-8	-0.250
118	Tulane	2-7	-0.253
119	Rice	1-9	-0.256
120	New Mexico State	2-7	-0.290

Week 11 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 11 Forecasts are based on the Week 10 FEI Ratings.

Tuesday, November 10
51.5% PWE; Ohio 24, BUFFALO 23 (27-24 F)

Wednesday, November 11
95.5% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 40, Toledo 14 (56-28 F)

Thursday, November 12
65.9% PWE; Bowling Green 27, MIAMI (OH) 20 (35-14 F)
89.2% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34, Ball State 14 (26-20 F)
51.0% PWE; South Florida 22, RUTGERS 21 (0-31 F) X

Friday, November 13
92.6% PWE; CINCINNATI 39, West Virginia 16 (24-21 F)
75.1% PWE; Temple 27, AKRON 15 (56-17 F)

Saturday, November 14
94.7% PWE; AIR FORCE (h) 38, UNLV 12 (45-17 F)
88.2% PWE; Alabama 35, MISSISSIPPI STATE 14 (31-3 F)
75.8% PWE; Arizona 33, CALIFORNIA 20 (16-24 F) X
91.9% PWE; ARKANSAS 40, Troy 17 (56-20 F)
68.9% PWE; Arkansas State 37, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 28 (18-35 F) X
54.9% PWE; Auburn 27, GEORGIA 26 (24-31 F) X
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 50, Idaho 9 (63-25 F)
65.0% PWE; Boston College 23, VIRGINIA 16 (14-10 F)
93.5% PWE; BYU 40, NEW MEXICO (h) 15 (24-19 F)
84.0% PWE; Clemson 35, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 (43-23 F)
88.5% PWE; Florida 31, SOUTH CAROLINA 10 (24-14 F)
74.2% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 30, North Texas 20 (35-28 F)
58.2% PWE; Florida State 31, WAKE FOREST 28 (41-28 F)
76.4% PWE; Fresno State 37, NEVADA 24 (14-52 F) X
80.7% PWE; Georgia Tech 37, DUKE 21 (49-10 F)
74.9% PWE; HAWAII 27, New Mexico State 17 (24-6 F)
79.7% PWE; Houston 35, CENTRAL FLORIDA 20 (32-37 F) X
70.1% PWE; IOWA STATE 29, Colorado 22 (17-10 F)
62.0% PWE; KANSAS STATE 27, Missouri 22 (12-38 F) X
59.7% PWE; Kentucky 24, VANDERBILT 20 (24-13 F)
76.2% PWE; LOUISIANA MONROE 34, Western Kentucky 23 (21-18 F)
75.7% PWE; LOUISVILLE 28, Syracuse 17 (10-9 F)
96.9% PWE; LSU 35, Louisiana Tech 7 (24-16 F)
60.6% PWE; Miami 24, NORTH CAROLINA 19 (24-33 F) X
57.0% PWE; Michigan State 26, PURDUE 24 (40-37 F)
82.5% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 27, Louisiana Lafayette 12 (34-17 F)
51.1% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 21, Tennessee 20 (42-17 F)
61.8% PWE; Nebraska 23, KANSAS 18 (31-17 F)
64.7% PWE; Northwestern 27, ILLINOIS 21 (21-16 F)
54.9% PWE; OHIO STATE 20, Iowa 17 (27-24 F)
93.9% PWE; OKLAHOMA 37, Texas A&M 13 (65-10 F)
94.8% PWE; OREGON 35, Arizona State 9 (44-21 F)
84.2% PWE; OREGON STATE 37, Washington 21 (48-21 F)
93.9% PWE; PENN STATE 37, Indiana 13 (31-20 F)
72.3% PWE; PITTSBURGH 35, Notre Dame 26 (27-22 F)
63.3% PWE; RICE 27, Tulane 23 (28-20 F)
73.4% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE 26, Wyoming 17 (27-30 F) X
80.9% PWE; SMU (h) 34, UTEP 20 (35-31 F)
57.7% PWE; Southern Mississippi 26, MARSHALL 24 (27-20 F)
97.0% PWE; TCU 37, Utah 8 (55-28 F)
94.4% PWE; Texas 37, BAYLOR 10 (47-14 F)
59.5% PWE; Texas Tech 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 23 (17-24 F) X
53.8% PWE; UAB 28, MEMPHIS (h) 27 (31-21 F)
94.9% PWE; UCLA 34, WASHINGTON STATE (h) 7 (43-7 F)
70.1% PWE; USC 34, Stanford 27 (21-55 F) X
89.0% PWE; UTAH STATE 37, San Jose State 17 (24-9 F)
92.3% PWE; Virginia Tech 37, MARYLAND 13 (36-9 F)
71.9% PWE; Western Michigan 31, EASTERN MICHIGAN 20 (35-14 F)
80.8% PWE; WISCONSIN 31, Michigan 17 (45-24 F)

Sunday, November 15
60.7% PWE; East Carolina 24, TULSA 20 (44-17 F)

Week 10 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 8th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	9-0	0.272
2	TCU	8-0	0.257
3	Florida	8-0	0.257
4	Cincinnati	8-0	0.242
5	Texas	9-0	0.234
6	Georgia Tech	8-1	0.233
7	Virginia Tech	6-3	0.230
8	Miami	6-2	0.228
9	Clemson	5-3	0.227
10	Oregon	7-2	0.226
11	Iowa	8-1	0.211
12	Ohio State	8-2	0.202
13	Boise State	8-0	0.201
14	USC	7-2	0.195
15	Arizona	5-2	0.192
16	Pittsburgh	7-1	0.190
17	Oklahoma	4-4	0.179
18	Oregon State	5-3	0.172
19	Stanford	6-3	0.156
20	LSU	7-2	0.156
21	North Carolina	4-3	0.154
22	Penn State	7-2	0.152
23	Florida State	3-5	0.148
24	Boston College	5-3	0.147
25	Texas Tech	5-3	0.144
26	Notre Dame	6-3	0.140
27	Wisconsin	6-2	0.122
28	Navy	7-3	0.117
29	Nebraska	6-3	0.117
30	Tennessee	5-4	0.100
31	Connecticut	3-5	0.096
32	Houston	7-1	0.094
33	Arkansas	4-4	0.089
34	Wake Forest	3-6	0.087
35	Michigan State	4-5	0.086
36	Auburn	6-3	0.084
37	Central Michigan	6-2	0.083
38	Mississippi	4-3	0.079
39	Oklahoma State	6-2	0.076
40	West Virginia	6-2	0.055
41	UCLA	4-5	0.053
42	Duke	4-3	0.051
43	Virginia	3-5	0.050
44	Washington	3-6	0.050
45	Air Force	5-4	0.048
46	BYU	7-2	0.043
47	Mississippi State	3-5	0.041
48	Northern Illinois	5-3	0.040
49	Georgia	4-4	0.039
50	California	5-3	0.038
51	Kansas	4-4	0.037
52	Purdue	4-6	0.031
53	Fresno State	5-3	0.028
54	South Florida	4-2	0.025
55	North Carolina State	2-5	0.024
56	South Carolina	5-4	0.023
57	Michigan	4-5	0.023
58	Temple	7-1	0.020
59	Arizona State	3-5	0.017
60	Utah	8-1	0.015
61	Minnesota	5-5	0.011
62	Kentucky	4-4	0.006
63	Northwestern	5-4	0.003
64	Rutgers	4-2	-0.004
65	Kansas State	4-4	-0.011
66	Southern Mississippi	4-4	-0.014
67	East Carolina	4-4	-0.019
68	Texas A&M	5-4	-0.021
69	Missouri	4-4	-0.021
70	Maryland	1-7	-0.035
71	Ohio	5-3	-0.042
72	Indiana	3-6	-0.047
73	SMU	4-4	-0.048
74	Baylor	3-5	-0.050
75	Iowa State	4-5	-0.062
76	Vanderbilt	1-8	-0.063
77	Louisville	2-6	-0.068
78	Bowling Green	4-5	-0.072
79	Marshall	4-4	-0.073
80	Buffalo	2-6	-0.073
81	Kent State	4-5	-0.082
82	Central Florida	4-4	-0.083
83	Louisiana Tech	2-6	-0.084
84	Troy	7-2	-0.091
85	Illinois	2-6	-0.092
86	Tulsa	3-5	-0.093
87	Arkansas State	1-6	-0.095
88	Colorado	3-6	-0.102
89	Western Michigan	3-6	-0.103
90	Utah State	1-7	-0.104
91	Middle Tennessee	6-3	-0.107
92	Ball State	1-7	-0.118
93	Nevada	6-3	-0.130
94	Akron	1-7	-0.131
95	Toledo	4-5	-0.135
96	Syracuse	2-6	-0.136
97	Army	3-6	-0.138
98	Florida International	2-7	-0.148
99	UTEP	3-6	-0.149
100	UAB	4-5	-0.152
101	Colorado State	2-7	-0.157
102	Idaho	7-3	-0.157
103	UNLV	3-6	-0.159
104	Miami (OH)	1-9	-0.174
105	San Diego State	3-5	-0.175
106	Louisiana Monroe	4-4	-0.175
107	Memphis	1-7	-0.193
108	North Texas	2-7	-0.208
109	Florida Atlantic	2-6	-0.213
110	Louisiana Lafayette	4-4	-0.218
111	Hawaii	2-6	-0.221
112	Wyoming	3-5	-0.231
113	New Mexico	0-9	-0.234
114	Eastern Michigan	0-9	-0.236
115	Washington State	1-8	-0.237
116	Western Kentucky	0-8	-0.247
117	Rice	0-9	-0.252
118	San Jose State	0-7	-0.260
119	Tulane	2-6	-0.266
120	New Mexico State	2-6	-0.285

Week 10 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 10 Forecasts are based on the Week 9 FEI Ratings.

Tuesday, November 3
59.9% PWE; BUFFALO 28, Bowling Green 24 (29-30 F) X

Thursday, November 5
97.2% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 43, Eastern Michigan 14 (50-6 F)
97.4% PWE; TEMPLE 35, Miami (OH) 6 (34-32 F)
86.1% PWE; Virginia Tech 37, EAST CAROLINA 17 (16-3 F)

Friday, November 6
97.2% PWE; Boise State 37, LOUISIANA TECH 8 (45-35 F)

Saturday, November 7
93.6% PWE; AIR FORCE 31, Army 7 (35-7 F)
82.8% PWE; ALABAMA (h) 29, LSU 14 (24-15 F)
98.5% PWE; ARIZONA 46, Washington State 3 (48-7 F)
64.5% PWE; ARKANSAS 26, South Carolina 21 (33-16 F)
86.3% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 31, Louisiana Lafayette 13 (18-21 F) X
74.0% PWE; BYU 29, WYOMING (h) 17 (52-0 F)
89.6% PWE; CINCINNATI 37, Connecticut 17 (47-45 F)
63.3% PWE; CLEMSON 31, Florida State 26 (40-24 F)
51.7% PWE; Colorado State 31, UNLV 30 (16-35 F) X
98.0% PWE; FLORIDA 41, Vanderbilt 3 (27-3 F)
84.8% PWE; Fresno State 47, IDAHO 28 (31-21 F)
89.7% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 40, Wake Forest 20 (30-27 F)
86.6% PWE; Houston 38, TULSA 18 (46-45 F)
98.0% PWE; IOWA 43, Northwestern 6 (10-17 F) X
63.9% PWE; Kansas 27, KANSAS STATE 21 (10-17 F) X
57.1% PWE; Kent State 22, AKRON 20 (20-28 F) X
85.5% PWE; MIAMI 30, Virginia 13 (52-17 F)
64.9% PWE; MICHIGAN 25, Purdue 20 (36-38 F) X
90.7% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 37, Western Michigan 15 (49-14 F)
75.4% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24, Florida International 13 (48-21 F)
84.6% PWE; MINNESOTA 34, Illinois 17 (32-35 F) X
72.9% PWE; MISSOURI 24, Baylor 16 (32-40 F) X
67.7% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA 27, Duke 20 (19-6 F)
76.4% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA STATE 31, Maryland 20 (38-31 F)
61.7% PWE; NORTH TEXAS 27, Louisiana Monroe 23 (6-33 F) X
70.7% PWE; NOTRE DAME 34, Navy 27 (21-23 F) X
64.7% PWE; Oklahoma 24, NEBRASKA 19 (3-10 F) X
57.5% PWE; Oklahoma State 30, IOWA STATE 28 (34-8 F)
71.2% PWE; Oregon 35, STANFORD 24 (42-51 F) X
61.3% PWE; Oregon State 33, CALIFORNIA 28 (31-14 F)
62.6% PWE; PENN STATE 24, Ohio State 19 (7-24 F) X
98.5% PWE; PITTSBURGH 47, Syracuse 8 (37-10 F)
97.8% PWE; SMU 38, Rice 7 (31-28 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU 43, SAN DIEGO STATE (h) 6 (55-12 F)
96.9% PWE; TENNESSEE 38, Memphis 9 (56-28 F)
98.3% PWE; TEXAS 40, Central Florida 7 (35-3 F)
59.5% PWE; Texas A&M 27, COLORADO 23 (34-35 F) X
75.6% PWE; Troy 37, WESTERN KENTUCKY 24 (40-20 F)
51.9% PWE; UAB 30, Florida Atlantic 28 (56-29 F)
63.9% PWE; UCLA 26, Washington 21 (24-23 F)
81.4% PWE; USC 30, ARIZONA STATE (h) 14 (14-9 F)
97.5% PWE; UTAH 37, New Mexico 7 (45-14 F)
77.9% PWE; Utah State 35, HAWAII 21 (36-49 F) X
71.1% PWE; UTEP 31, TULANE (h) 21 (38-45 F) X
87.2% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 35, Louisville 16 (17-9 F)
81.4% PWE; Wisconsin 33, INDIANA 17 (31-28 F)

Sunday, November 8
58.6% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 27, Nevada 24 (7-62 F) X

Week 9 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 1st games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	8-0	0.272
2	Florida	7-0	0.268
3	Oregon	7-1	0.242
4	TCU	7-0	0.240
5	Texas	8-0	0.238
6	Iowa	8-0	0.238
7	Cincinnati	7-0	0.237
8	Georgia Tech	7-1	0.225
9	Boise State	7-0	0.214
10	Virginia Tech	5-3	0.212
11	Miami	5-2	0.208
12	Pittsburgh	6-1	0.190
13	Oklahoma	4-3	0.189
14	USC	6-2	0.184
15	Clemson	4-3	0.174
16	Arizona	4-2	0.170
17	Penn State	7-1	0.161
18	Florida State	3-4	0.161
19	LSU	7-1	0.159
20	Ohio State	7-2	0.150
21	Boston College	5-3	0.145
22	Texas Tech	5-3	0.141
23	Oregon State	4-3	0.131
24	Notre Dame	6-2	0.127
25	Stanford	5-3	0.112
26	North Carolina	3-3	0.109
27	Wisconsin	5-2	0.108
28	Houston	6-1	0.103
29	Tennessee	4-4	0.096
30	Nebraska	5-3	0.093
31	Navy	6-3	0.085
32	Auburn	6-3	0.083
33	Mississippi	4-3	0.081
34	Duke	4-2	0.080
35	Virginia	3-4	0.076
36	Central Michigan	6-2	0.076
37	Connecticut	3-4	0.075
38	Arkansas	3-4	0.072
39	Air Force	4-4	0.070
40	Kansas	4-3	0.069
41	West Virginia	5-2	0.066
42	Michigan State	3-5	0.064
43	Wake Forest	3-5	0.063
44	South Carolina	5-3	0.055
45	California	5-2	0.054
46	Mississippi State	3-5	0.046
47	UCLA	3-5	0.046
48	Temple	6-1	0.045
49	Utah	7-1	0.042
50	Fresno State	4-3	0.039
51	Georgia	4-4	0.035
52	North Carolina State	1-5	0.034
53	Oklahoma State	5-2	0.031
54	Washington	3-5	0.030
55	South Florida	4-2	0.030
56	BYU	6-2	0.023
57	Northern Illinois	4-3	0.020
58	Michigan	4-4	0.010
59	Southern Mississippi	4-4	0.005
60	Kentucky	4-4	0.001
61	Arizona State	3-4	-0.003
62	Minnesota	5-4	-0.005
63	East Carolina	4-3	-0.005
64	Purdue	3-6	-0.008
65	Rutgers	4-2	-0.009
66	Texas A&M	5-3	-0.020
67	SMU	3-4	-0.022
68	Kansas State	3-4	-0.022
69	Iowa State	4-4	-0.027
70	Missouri	4-3	-0.030
71	Maryland	1-6	-0.039
72	Central Florida	4-3	-0.047
73	Ohio	5-3	-0.048
74	Vanderbilt	1-7	-0.058
75	Marshall	4-4	-0.063
76	Buffalo	2-5	-0.075
77	Louisville	2-5	-0.077
78	Utah State	1-6	-0.078
79	Indiana	3-5	-0.079
80	Bowling Green	3-5	-0.079
81	Baylor	2-5	-0.083
82	Middle Tennessee	5-3	-0.085
83	Kent State	4-4	-0.085
84	Colorado	2-6	-0.087
85	Northwestern	4-4	-0.089
86	Arkansas State	1-5	-0.092
87	Troy	6-2	-0.093
88	Louisiana Tech	2-5	-0.100
89	Western Michigan	3-5	-0.106
90	Ball State	1-7	-0.114
91	Tulsa	3-4	-0.118
92	Wyoming	3-4	-0.122
93	Army	3-5	-0.126
94	Illinois	1-6	-0.130
95	Colorado State	2-6	-0.136
96	UTEP	3-5	-0.140
97	Toledo	4-5	-0.141
98	Akron	0-7	-0.141
99	San Diego State	3-4	-0.142
100	Memphis	1-6	-0.143
101	Syracuse	2-5	-0.146
102	Florida Atlantic	2-5	-0.151
103	Florida International	2-6	-0.152
104	UNLV	2-6	-0.168
105	Idaho	7-2	-0.169
106	UAB	3-5	-0.170
107	North Texas	2-6	-0.180
108	San Jose State	0-6	-0.183
109	Nevada	5-3	-0.183
110	Louisiana Monroe	3-4	-0.189
111	Washington State	1-7	-0.200
112	Miami (OH)	1-8	-0.206
113	New Mexico	0-8	-0.211
114	Eastern Michigan	0-8	-0.226
115	Louisiana Lafayette	3-4	-0.229
116	Hawaii	1-6	-0.244
117	Western Kentucky	0-7	-0.246
118	Tulane	1-6	-0.270
119	New Mexico State	2-6	-0.277
120	Rice	0-8	-0.283

Week 9 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 9 Forecasts are based on the Week 8 FEI Ratings.

Tuesday, October 27
67.8% PWE; East Carolina 30, MEMPHIS 21 (38-19 F)

Thursday, October 29
95.7% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 35, North Carolina 8 (17-20 F) X

Friday, October 30
66.5% PWE; West Virginia 28, SOUTH FLORIDA 20 (19-30 F) X

Saturday, October 31
71.2% PWE; Air Force 27, COLORADO STATE 17 (34-16 F)
97.3% PWE; ARKANSAS 42, Eastern Michigan 13 (63-27 F)
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 45, San Jose State 0 (45-7 F)
54.9% PWE; California 26, ARIZONA STATE 24 (23-21 F)
51.4% PWE; Central Michigan 21, BOSTON COLLEGE 20 (10-31 F) X
98.5% PWE; Cincinnati 42, SYRACUSE 6 (28-7 F)
53.3% PWE; COLORADO 24, Missouri 22 (17-36 F) X
88.7% PWE; CONNECTICUT 37, Rutgers 17 (24-28 F) X
90.7% PWE; Florida 35, Georgia 13 (41-17 F)
86.4% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 31, Louisiana Lafayette 14 (20-17 F)
87.8% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 40, North Carolina State 21 (45-42 F)
90.5% PWE; FRESNO STATE 41, Utah State 20 (31-27 F)
98.5% PWE; Georgia Tech 42, VANDERBILT 8 (56-31 F)
83.8% PWE; HOUSTON 38, Southern Mississippi 22 (50-43 F)
55.6% PWE; IDAHO 30, Louisiana Tech 27 (35-34 F)
98.5% PWE; IOWA 47, Indiana 3 (42-24 F)
76.6% PWE; Iowa State 34, TEXAS A&M 21 (10-35 F) X
58.7% PWE; KENT STATE 24, Western Michigan 21 (26-14 F)
50.1% PWE; KENTUCKY 25, Mississippi State 24 (24-31 F) X
64.0% PWE; LOUISVILLE 29, Arkansas State 24 (21-13 F)
98.5% PWE; LSU 50, Tulane 0 (42-0 F)
89.7% PWE; Miami 36, WAKE FOREST 14 (28-27 F)
90.8% PWE; Michigan 35, ILLINOIS 12 (13-38 F) X
68.9% PWE; Michigan State 33, MINNESOTA 24 (34-42 F) X
62.3% PWE; Middle Tennessee 28, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 23 (27-20 F)
51.6% PWE; Mississippi 24, AUBURN 23 (20-33 F) X
76.1% PWE; NAVY 28, Temple 17 (24-27 F) X
78.5% PWE; Nebraska 28, BAYLOR 13 (20-10 F)
79.4% PWE; NEVADA 37, Hawaii 24 (31-21 F)
75.7% PWE; NORTH TEXAS 35, Western Kentucky 24 (68-49 F)
95.2% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 38, Akron 12 (27-10 F)
98.5% PWE; Notre Dame 48, Washington State 10 (40-14 F)
60.8% PWE; Ohio 24, BALL STATE 19 (20-17 F)
98.5% PWE; OHIO STATE 51, New Mexico State 0 (45-0 F)
96.7% PWE; OKLAHOMA 35, Kansas State 6 (42-30 F)
50.4% PWE; OREGON (h) 22, USC 21 (47-20 F)
79.9% PWE; OREGON STATE (h) 33, UCLA 20 (26-19 F)
87.7% PWE; Penn State 35, NORTHWESTERN 14 (34-13 F)
87.4% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE 33, New Mexico 14 (23-20 F)
63.3% PWE; SMU 27, TULSA (h) 21 (27-13 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU (h) 55, UNLV 3 (41-0 F)
61.8% PWE; TENNESSEE 22, South Carolina 17 (31-13 F)
69.1% PWE; Texas 30, OKLAHOMA STATE 21 (41-14 F)
70.7% PWE; TEXAS TECH 31, Kansas 23 (42-21 F)
60.7% PWE; Toledo 27, MIAMI (OH) 23 (24-31 F) X
81.3% PWE; TROY 31, Louisiana Monroe 17 (42-21 F)
94.3% PWE; UTAH 31, Wyoming 6 (22-10 F)
72.8% PWE; UTEP (h) 31, UAB 22 (33-38 F) X
73.9% PWE; VIRGINIA 29, Duke 20 (17-28 F) X
75.7% PWE; WISCONSIN 28, Purdue 17 (37-0 F)

Sunday, November 1
72.0% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 24, Marshall 16 (21-20 F)

Week 8 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of October 24th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	8-0	0.299
2	Iowa	7-0	0.298
3	TCU	6-0	0.294
4	Georgia Tech	6-1	0.293
5	Virginia Tech	5-2	0.285
6	Miami	4-2	0.278
7	Florida	6-0	0.265
8	USC	6-1	0.240
9	Cincinnati	6-0	0.234
10	Boise State	6-0	0.229
11	Oregon	6-1	0.216
12	Texas	7-0	0.210
13	Clemson	4-3	0.205
14	Oklahoma	3-3	0.203
15	Arizona	4-2	0.194
16	LSU	6-1	0.174
17	Penn State	6-1	0.171
18	Pittsburgh	6-1	0.168
19	Ohio State	6-2	0.167
20	Notre Dame	5-2	0.163
21	Florida State	2-4	0.142
22	Oregon State	3-3	0.136
23	Central Michigan	6-1	0.133
24	Texas Tech	4-3	0.121
25	Stanford	5-3	0.118
26	Houston	5-1	0.113
27	Wisconsin	4-2	0.111
28	Michigan State	3-4	0.107
29	Boston College	4-3	0.103
30	Nebraska	4-3	0.091
31	Oklahoma State	5-1	0.091
32	Mississippi	4-2	0.089
33	Michigan	4-3	0.087
34	West Virginia	5-1	0.087
35	Connecticut	3-3	0.085
36	Kansas	4-2	0.080
37	Tennessee	3-4	0.079
38	Navy	6-2	0.076
39	Virginia	3-3	0.072
40	South Carolina	5-2	0.070
41	Iowa State	4-3	0.065
42	North Carolina	2-3	0.065
43	Northern Illinois	3-3	0.063
44	Auburn	5-3	0.058
45	Fresno State	3-3	0.058
46	Georgia	4-3	0.057
47	Washington	3-5	0.053
48	Utah	6-1	0.053
49	Arkansas	2-4	0.050
50	Air Force	3-4	0.048
51	Purdue	3-5	0.043
52	UCLA	3-4	0.042
53	California	4-2	0.040
54	Wake Forest	3-4	0.035
55	BYU	6-2	0.034
56	Mississippi State	2-5	0.027
57	Duke	3-2	0.014
58	Temple	5-1	0.005
59	Kentucky	4-3	0.002
60	Arizona State	3-3	-0.005
61	North Carolina State	1-4	-0.006
62	Southern Mississippi	4-3	-0.006
63	Minnesota	4-4	-0.011
64	South Florida	3-2	-0.018
65	East Carolina	3-3	-0.027
66	Kansas State	3-3	-0.033
67	SMU	2-4	-0.038
68	Central Florida	3-3	-0.039
69	Ohio	4-3	-0.052
70	Vanderbilt	1-6	-0.054
71	Missouri	3-3	-0.055
72	Maryland	1-6	-0.056
73	Northwestern	4-3	-0.057
74	Colorado	2-5	-0.069
75	Rutgers	3-2	-0.069
76	Buffalo	2-5	-0.073
77	Louisville	1-5	-0.078
78	Kent State	3-4	-0.078
79	Baylor	2-4	-0.079
80	Western Michigan	3-4	-0.079
81	Bowling Green	3-5	-0.079
82	Colorado State	2-5	-0.083
83	Indiana	3-4	-0.085
84	Marshall	4-3	-0.087
85	Troy	5-2	-0.092
86	Arkansas State	1-4	-0.093
87	Middle Tennessee	4-3	-0.094
88	Texas A&M	4-3	-0.094
89	San Diego State	2-4	-0.098
90	Utah State	1-5	-0.110
91	Louisiana Tech	2-4	-0.120
92	Toledo	4-4	-0.124
93	Tulsa	3-3	-0.126
94	Ball State	1-6	-0.126
95	Idaho	6-2	-0.127
96	Army	3-5	-0.130
97	Syracuse	2-4	-0.136
98	Florida International	1-6	-0.136
99	UTEP	3-4	-0.139
100	Memphis	1-5	-0.142
101	Akron	0-6	-0.151
102	Wyoming	3-3	-0.151
103	San Jose State	0-5	-0.162
104	Nevada	4-3	-0.165
105	Illinois	0-6	-0.165
106	UNLV	2-5	-0.174
107	Florida Atlantic	2-4	-0.177
108	North Texas	1-6	-0.186
109	UAB	2-5	-0.192
110	Louisiana Monroe	3-3	-0.196
111	Miami (OH)	0-8	-0.198
112	Eastern Michigan	0-7	-0.199
113	Washington State	1-6	-0.202
114	New Mexico	0-7	-0.244
115	Western Kentucky	0-6	-0.254
116	Hawaii	1-5	-0.256
117	Louisiana Lafayette	3-3	-0.274
118	Tulane	1-5	-0.276
119	New Mexico State	2-5	-0.284
120	Rice	0-8	-0.284

Week 8 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 8 Forecasts are based on the Week 7 FEI Ratings.

Wednesday, October 21
66.4% PWE; UTEP 26, Tulsa 21 (28-24 F)

Thursday, October 22
58.8% PWE; Florida State 27, NORTH CAROLINA 24 (30-27 F)

Friday, October 23
55.1% PWE; ARMY 23, Rutgers 21 (10-27 F) X

Saturday, October 24
96.1% PWE; ALABAMA 35, Tennessee 8 (12-10 F)
92.8% PWE; ARIZONA (h) 37, UCLA 14 (27-13 F)
69.3% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 28, Florida International 21 (27-10 F)
68.0% PWE; Ball State 30, EASTERN MICHIGAN 21 (29-27 F)
98.5% PWE; Boise State 54, HAWAII 7 (54-9 F)
97.0% PWE; CALIFORNIA 38, Washington State 10 (49-17 F)
86.9% PWE; Central Florida 34, RICE 14 (49-7 F)
86.5% PWE; Central Michigan 34, BOWLING GREEN 14 (24-10 F)
98.2% PWE; CINCINNATI 47, Louisville 11 (41-10 F)
53.2% PWE; Colorado 24, KANSAS STATE 23 (6-20 F) X
78.3% PWE; COLORADO STATE 29, San Diego State 17 (28-42 F) X
50.2% PWE; Connecticut 25, WEST VIRGINIA 24 (24-28 F) X
85.4% PWE; DUKE 37, Maryland 20 (17-13 F)
90.7% PWE; Florida 37, MISSISSIPPI STATE 14 (29-19 F)
63.5% PWE; Florida Atlantic 27, LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 21 (51-29 F)
98.5% PWE; Fresno State 47, NEW MEXICO STATE 10 (34-3 F)
79.3% PWE; Georgia Tech 35, VIRGINIA 20 (34-9 F)
85.5% PWE; HOUSTON (h) 37, SMU 20 (38-15 F)
73.4% PWE; Idaho 39, NEVADA 28 (45-70 F) X
79.0% PWE; Iowa 33, MICHIGAN STATE 18 (15-13 F)
51.3% PWE; KANSAS 23, Oklahoma 22 (13-35 F) X
96.2% PWE; KENTUCKY 35, Louisiana Monroe 8 (36-13 F)
73.2% PWE; LSU 29, Auburn 20 (31-10 F)
84.1% PWE; MARSHALL (h) 34, UAB 17 (27-7 F)
85.5% PWE; MIAMI 30, Clemson 12 (37-40 F) X
60.5% PWE; MICHIGAN 24, Penn State 20 (10-35 F) X
85.8% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 34, Western Kentucky 17 (62-24 F)
54.1% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 24, Arkansas 22 (30-17 F)
74.3% PWE; NAVY 34, Wake Forest 24 (13-10 F)
79.2% PWE; NEBRASKA 33, Iowa State 20 (7-9 F) X
97.2% PWE; Northern Illinois 40, MIAMI (OH) 10 (27-22 F)
78.2% PWE; NORTHWESTERN 33, Indiana 20 (29-28 F)
82.7% PWE; NOTRE DAME 33, Boston College 18 (20-16 F)
84.2% PWE; OHIO 30, Kent State 13 (11-20 F) X
84.5% PWE; OHIO STATE 31, Minnesota 14 (38-7 F)
61.3% PWE; Oklahoma State 26, BAYLOR 21 (34-7 F)
59.1% PWE; Oregon 27, WASHINGTON 23 (43-19 F)
53.5% PWE; PITTSBURGH 22, South Florida 20 (41-14 F)
97.9% PWE; PURDUE 40, Illinois 9 (24-14 F)
89.7% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA 30, Vanderbilt 9 (14-10 F)
98.3% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 44, Tulane 11 (43-6 F)
76.8% PWE; STANFORD 34, Arizona State 23 (33-14 F)
71.5% PWE; SYRACUSE 26, Akron 17 (28-14 F)
83.8% PWE; TCU 38, BYU (h) 20 (38-7 F)
57.0% PWE; Temple 26, TOLEDO 24 (40-24 F)
86.6% PWE; Texas 30, MISSOURI 10 (41-7 F)
98.5% PWE; TEXAS TECH 50, Texas A&M 6 (30-52 F) X
51.8% PWE; TROY 28, North Texas 27 (50-26 F)
58.8% PWE; UNLV 27, NEW MEXICO (h) 24 (34-17 F)
79.4% PWE; USC 30, Oregon State 17 (42-36 F)
61.3% PWE; UTAH 21, Air Force 17 (23-16 F)
69.7% PWE; UTAH STATE 27, Louisiana Tech 20 (23-21 F)
69.9% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 28, Buffalo 21 (34-31 F)

Week 7 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of October 17th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	7-0	0.300
2	Iowa	6-0	0.290
3	Virginia Tech	5-2	0.281
4	Cincinnati	5-0	0.279
5	Miami	4-1	0.276
6	Florida	5-0	0.265
7	TCU	5-0	0.264
8	Georgia Tech	5-1	0.263
9	USC	5-1	0.249
10	Boise State	5-0	0.235
11	Arizona	3-2	0.211
12	Texas	6-0	0.203
13	Oregon	5-1	0.187
14	Texas Tech	4-2	0.184
15	Notre Dame	4-2	0.183
16	Ohio State	5-2	0.162
17	Oregon State	3-2	0.158
18	Oklahoma	2-3	0.156
19	LSU	5-1	0.155
20	South Florida	3-1	0.149
21	Clemson	3-3	0.145
22	Wisconsin	4-2	0.138
23	Michigan	4-2	0.136
24	Kansas	4-1	0.136
25	Pittsburgh	5-1	0.135
26	Penn State	5-1	0.130
27	Florida State	1-4	0.129
28	Central Michigan	5-1	0.128
29	Stanford	4-3	0.124
30	Washington	3-4	0.121
31	Michigan State	3-3	0.117
32	Nebraska	4-2	0.112
33	Connecticut	3-2	0.109
34	Northern Illinois	2-3	0.103
35	Houston	4-1	0.102
36	Auburn	5-2	0.100
37	Virginia	3-2	0.088
38	West Virginia	4-1	0.083
39	Fresno State	2-3	0.078
40	South Carolina	4-2	0.078
41	Tennessee	3-3	0.074
42	Purdue	2-5	0.073
43	Boston College	4-2	0.070
44	Navy	5-2	0.067
45	North Carolina	2-2	0.065
46	BYU	6-1	0.063
47	Arkansas	2-3	0.061
48	Georgia	4-3	0.057
49	Utah	5-1	0.050
50	Mississippi	3-2	0.049
51	Arizona State	3-2	0.048
52	California	3-2	0.043
53	Air Force	3-3	0.042
54	Minnesota	4-3	0.037
55	Oklahoma State	4-1	0.031
56	Duke	2-2	0.030
57	Kentucky	3-3	0.028
58	UCLA	3-3	0.023
59	Iowa State	3-3	0.022
60	Mississippi State	2-4	0.014
61	Wake Forest	3-3	0.006
62	Southern Mississippi	3-3	0.005
63	Ohio	4-2	-0.007
64	Missouri	3-2	-0.017
65	North Carolina State	1-4	-0.019
66	Northwestern	3-3	-0.025
67	SMU	2-3	-0.030
68	Louisville	1-4	-0.033
69	East Carolina	3-3	-0.036
70	Temple	4-1	-0.041
71	Colorado	2-4	-0.044
72	Colorado State	2-4	-0.046
73	Baylor	2-3	-0.046
74	Idaho	6-1	-0.054
75	Central Florida	2-3	-0.064
76	Western Michigan	2-4	-0.065
77	Kansas State	2-3	-0.081
78	Vanderbilt	1-5	-0.085
79	Bowling Green	3-4	-0.091
80	Marshall	3-3	-0.095
81	Toledo	4-3	-0.096
82	Maryland	1-5	-0.101
83	Buffalo	2-4	-0.103
84	Arkansas State	0-4	-0.106
85	Middle Tennessee	3-3	-0.108
86	Indiana	3-3	-0.109
87	Syracuse	1-4	-0.110
88	Ball State	0-6	-0.114
89	Utah State	0-5	-0.116
90	Rutgers	2-2	-0.124
91	North Texas	1-5	-0.130
92	Kent State	2-4	-0.130
93	San Diego State	1-4	-0.130
94	Army	3-4	-0.133
95	UTEP	2-4	-0.137
96	Florida International	1-5	-0.142
97	Troy	4-2	-0.149
98	Memphis	1-5	-0.150
99	San Jose State	0-5	-0.150
100	Wyoming	3-3	-0.153
101	Louisiana Tech	2-3	-0.154
102	Akron	0-5	-0.156
103	Tulsa	3-2	-0.161
104	Florida Atlantic	1-4	-0.172
105	UNLV	1-5	-0.190
106	Illinois	0-5	-0.191
107	Nevada	3-3	-0.196
108	Washington State	1-5	-0.199
109	Louisiana Monroe	3-2	-0.200
110	Texas A&M	3-3	-0.204
111	Miami (OH)	0-7	-0.211
112	UAB	2-4	-0.218
113	Eastern Michigan	0-6	-0.227
114	Western Kentucky	0-5	-0.242
115	Hawaii	1-4	-0.244
116	New Mexico	0-6	-0.254
117	Louisiana Lafayette	3-2	-0.261
118	Tulane	1-4	-0.285
119	Rice	0-7	-0.286
120	New Mexico State	2-4	-0.303