FEI 2009 Final Ratings

Updated through the results of January 7th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	13-0	0.342
2	Florida	12-1	0.290
3	Virginia Tech	10-3	0.255
4	Ohio State	11-2	0.240
5	Georgia Tech	10-3	0.237
6	Texas	13-1	0.231
7	Iowa	10-2	0.225
8	TCU	11-1	0.215
9	Oregon	10-3	0.203
10	Miami	8-4	0.202
11	Pittsburgh	9-3	0.200
12	Penn State	10-2	0.195
13	Clemson	8-5	0.190
14	Cincinnati	11-1	0.181
15	North Carolina	6-5	0.180
16	Boise State	13-0	0.179
17	LSU	9-4	0.165
18	Texas Tech	8-4	0.162
19	Stanford	8-5	0.161
20	Nebraska	10-4	0.159
21	Oklahoma	7-5	0.157
22	Wisconsin	9-3	0.143
23	USC	9-4	0.142
24	Florida State	6-6	0.134
25	Connecticut	7-5	0.131
26	Arkansas	7-5	0.129
27	Oregon State	7-5	0.126
28	Mississippi	7-4	0.125
29	Arizona	7-5	0.118
30	Georgia	7-5	0.117
31	Notre Dame	6-6	0.113
32	Auburn	7-5	0.111
33	West Virginia	8-4	0.111
34	Boston College	7-5	0.102
35	BYU	11-2	0.098
36	Central Michigan	11-2	0.097
37	Navy	9-4	0.093
38	Tennessee	7-6	0.093
39	Houston	9-4	0.075
40	Air Force	7-5	0.072
41	Michigan State	5-7	0.071
42	Oklahoma State	8-4	0.066
43	Mississippi State	4-7	0.061
44	South Carolina	6-6	0.060
45	Kentucky	6-6	0.052
46	Wake Forest	4-7	0.050
47	Northwestern	7-5	0.048
48	Purdue	5-7	0.046
49	Utah	10-3	0.043
50	UCLA	7-6	0.042
51	California	7-5	0.041
52	Rutgers	7-4	0.034
53	Minnesota	5-7	0.033
54	East Carolina	8-5	0.030
55	Temple	9-3	0.021
56	Virginia	3-8	0.020
57	South Florida	6-5	0.010
58	Washington	5-7	0.008
59	Michigan	4-7	0.008
60	Arizona State	3-8	0.007
61	Missouri	7-5	0.000
62	Kansas	4-7	-0.006
63	Ohio	8-5	-0.007
64	North Carolina State	3-7	-0.008
65	Northern Illinois	6-6	-0.013
66	Southern Mississippi	6-6	-0.016
67	SMU	7-5	-0.023
68	Texas A&M	6-7	-0.024
69	Duke	4-6	-0.028
70	Maryland	1-10	-0.039
71	Buffalo	4-7	-0.042
72	Vanderbilt	1-10	-0.048
73	Indiana	3-8	-0.048
74	Central Florida	7-5	-0.050
75	Kansas State	4-6	-0.050
76	Iowa State	6-6	-0.059
77	Middle Tennessee	10-3	-0.061
78	Bowling Green	7-6	-0.063
79	Louisiana Tech	3-8	-0.068
80	Illinois	2-9	-0.068
81	Fresno State	7-5	-0.070
82	Marshall	6-6	-0.072
83	Colorado	3-9	-0.076
84	Troy	9-4	-0.078
85	Syracuse	3-8	-0.081
86	Louisville	3-8	-0.091
87	Baylor	3-8	-0.101
88	Tulsa	4-7	-0.102
89	Kent State	4-7	-0.102
90	Western Michigan	4-7	-0.107
91	UTEP	4-8	-0.112
92	Ball State	2-9	-0.118
93	Nevada	8-5	-0.120
94	Utah State	3-8	-0.123
95	Army	4-7	-0.127
96	UAB	5-7	-0.128
97	Colorado State	2-9	-0.140
98	Toledo	5-7	-0.157
99	Akron	2-9	-0.162
100	Idaho	8-5	-0.166
101	UNLV	4-7	-0.170
102	North Texas	2-10	-0.173
103	Arkansas State	3-8	-0.174
104	San Diego State	3-8	-0.184
105	Memphis	1-10	-0.185
106	Florida International	3-9	-0.186
107	Florida Atlantic	5-7	-0.193
108	Wyoming	6-6	-0.193
109	Miami (OH)	1-11	-0.193
110	Louisiana Monroe	5-6	-0.200
111	New Mexico	1-11	-0.208
112	Western Kentucky	0-11	-0.213
113	Louisiana Lafayette	5-6	-0.213
114	Hawaii	5-7	-0.218
115	Eastern Michigan	0-12	-0.234
116	Tulane	2-9	-0.246
117	Washington State	1-11	-0.247
118	San Jose State	1-10	-0.263
119	Rice	2-10	-0.285
120	New Mexico State	2-10	-0.312

FEI 2009-10 Bowl Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Saturday, December 19
85.2% PWE; Fresno State 33, Wyoming 15 (28-35 F) X
65.7% PWE; Rutgers 26, Central Florida 20 (45-24 F)

Sunday, December 20
70.0% PWE; Southern Mississippi 28, Middle Tennessee 20 (32-42 F) X

Tuesday, December 22
81.9% PWE; Oregon State 37, BYU 22 (20-44 F) X

Wednesday, December 23
65.2% PWE; California 25, Utah 20 (27-37 F) X

Thursday, December 24
52.5% PWE; Nevada 29, SMU 28 (10-45 F) X

Saturday, December 26
73.0% PWE; Ohio 27, Marshall 17 (17-21 F) X
67.1% PWE; Pittsburgh 26, North Carolina 20 (19-17 F)
65.3% PWE; USC 23, Boston College 17 (24-13 F)

Sunday, December 27
76.0% PWE; Clemson 28, Kentucky 17 (21-13 F)

Monday, December 28
80.0% PWE; Georgia 35, Texas A&M 21 (44-20 F)

Tuesday, December 29
71.4% PWE; Miami 30, Wisconsin 21 (14-20 F) X
58.3% PWE; UCLA 23, Temple 21 (30-21 F)

Wednesday, December 30
67.3% PWE; Arizona 24, Nebraska 17 (0-33 F) X
73.9% PWE; Bowling Green 37, Idaho 27 (42-43 F) X

Thursday, December 31
67.5% PWE; Houston 30, Air Force 24 (20-47 F) X
73.8% PWE; Minnesota 31, Iowa State 20 (13-14 F) X
62.6% PWE; Navy 28, Missouri 23 (35-13 F)
61.9% PWE; Stanford 28, Oklahoma 24 (27-31 F) X
77.6% PWE; Virginia Tech 30, Tennessee 17 (37-14 F)

Friday, January 1
70.6% PWE; Auburn 28, Northwestern 20 (38-35 F)
57.3% PWE; Florida 28, Cincinnati 26 (51-24 F)
61.8% PWE; Oregon 24, Ohio State 20 (17-26 F) X
50.2% PWE; Penn State 21, LSU 20 (19-17 F)
53.7% PWE; West Virginia 28, Florida State 27 (21-33 F) X

Saturday, January 2
76.5% PWE; Arkansas 32, East Carolina 20 (20-17 F)
60.0% PWE; Connecticut 24, South Carolina 21 (20-7 F)
62.9% PWE; Mississippi 24, Oklahoma State 19 (21-7 F)
58.4% PWE; Northern Illinois 27, South Florida 24 (3-27 F) X
70.0% PWE; Texas Tech 31, Michigan State 23 (41-31 F)

Monday, January 4
60.4% PWE; TCU 24, Boise State 20 (10-17 F) X

Tuesday, January 5
59.0% PWE; Georgia Tech 27, Iowa 24 (14-24 F) X

Wednesday, January 6
92.2% PWE; Central Michigan 38, Troy 14 (44-41 F)

Thursday, January 7
71.2% PWE; Alabama 27, Texas 18 (37-21 F)

Week 15 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 15 Forecasts are based on the Week 14 FEI Ratings.

Saturday, December 12
91.4% PWE; Navy 34, Army 12 (17-3 F)

FEI Forecasts for all bowl games will be posted on Thursday, December 17th.

Week 14 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of December 5th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	12-0	0.330
2	Florida	11-1	0.260
3	Texas	13-0	0.245
4	Oregon	10-2	0.245
5	Virginia Tech	9-3	0.240
6	Cincinnati	11-0	0.239
7	Georgia Tech	10-2	0.228
8	TCU	11-0	0.212
9	Ohio State	10-2	0.207
10	Miami	8-3	0.203
11	Iowa	9-2	0.202
12	Arizona	7-4	0.196
13	Oregon State	7-4	0.188
14	Stanford	8-4	0.187
15	Pittsburgh	8-3	0.187
16	Penn State	9-2	0.181
17	LSU	9-3	0.179
18	Boise State	12-0	0.179
19	Clemson	7-5	0.169
20	USC	8-4	0.167
21	Texas Tech	7-4	0.150
22	Oklahoma	6-5	0.148
23	Arkansas	6-5	0.137
24	Nebraska	9-4	0.131
25	North Carolina	6-4	0.124
26	Notre Dame	6-6	0.120
27	Mississippi	6-4	0.119
28	Georgia	6-5	0.119
29	Wisconsin	8-3	0.117
30	Tennessee	7-5	0.117
31	Central Michigan	10-2	0.116
32	Auburn	6-5	0.115
33	Connecticut	6-5	0.114
34	West Virginia	8-3	0.114
35	Boston College	7-4	0.113
36	Florida State	5-6	0.104
37	Houston	9-3	0.095
38	South Carolina	6-5	0.083
39	Oklahoma State	8-3	0.076
40	Navy	7-4	0.074
41	Michigan State	5-6	0.072
42	California	7-4	0.070
43	Mississippi State	4-7	0.061
44	Kentucky	6-5	0.057
45	Wake Forest	4-7	0.052
46	UCLA	6-6	0.050
47	Purdue	5-7	0.044
48	BYU	10-2	0.041
49	Northwestern	7-4	0.033
50	Washington	5-7	0.032
51	Air Force	6-5	0.030
52	Minnesota	5-6	0.027
53	Missouri	7-4	0.027
54	Temple	9-2	0.025
55	East Carolina	8-4	0.022
56	Virginia	3-8	0.022
57	Arizona State	3-8	0.022
58	Rutgers	6-4	0.018
59	Utah	9-3	0.016
60	Northern Illinois	6-5	0.010
61	Michigan	4-7	0.009
62	Ohio	8-4	0.005
63	Southern Mississippi	6-5	-0.006
64	Kansas	4-7	-0.007
65	North Carolina State	3-7	-0.010
66	South Florida	5-5	-0.015
67	Texas A&M	6-6	-0.017
68	Duke	4-6	-0.029
69	Central Florida	7-4	-0.037
70	Buffalo	4-7	-0.037
71	Maryland	1-10	-0.040
72	Vanderbilt	1-10	-0.046
73	Fresno State	7-4	-0.049
74	Indiana	3-8	-0.049
75	Kansas State	4-6	-0.050
76	Louisiana Tech	3-8	-0.061
77	Bowling Green	7-5	-0.061
78	Nevada	8-4	-0.061
79	Illinois	2-9	-0.065
80	SMU	6-5	-0.067
81	Iowa State	5-6	-0.073
82	Colorado	3-9	-0.075
83	Middle Tennessee	9-3	-0.085
84	Syracuse	3-8	-0.085
85	Marshall	5-6	-0.090
86	Louisville	3-8	-0.092
87	Kent State	4-7	-0.098
88	Baylor	3-8	-0.098
89	Western Michigan	4-7	-0.100
90	Troy	9-3	-0.105
91	Tulsa	4-7	-0.106
92	UTEP	4-8	-0.113
93	Ball State	2-9	-0.114
94	Utah State	3-8	-0.117
95	UAB	5-7	-0.132
96	Colorado State	2-9	-0.140
97	Army	4-6	-0.140
98	Toledo	5-7	-0.152
99	Akron	2-9	-0.158
100	Idaho	7-5	-0.161
101	UNLV	4-7	-0.173
102	North Texas	2-10	-0.177
103	Arkansas State	3-8	-0.182
104	Memphis	1-10	-0.184
105	Miami (OH)	1-11	-0.189
106	San Diego State	3-8	-0.190
107	Florida International	3-9	-0.192
108	Florida Atlantic	5-7	-0.201
109	Louisiana Monroe	5-6	-0.206
110	Hawaii	5-7	-0.213
111	New Mexico	1-11	-0.214
112	Wyoming	5-6	-0.216
113	Western Kentucky	0-11	-0.219
114	Louisiana Lafayette	5-6	-0.221
115	Eastern Michigan	0-12	-0.231
116	Washington State	1-11	-0.242
117	Tulane	2-9	-0.250
118	San Jose State	1-10	-0.254
119	Rice	2-10	-0.286
120	New Mexico State	2-10	-0.306

Week 14 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 14 Forecasts are based on the Week 13 FEI Ratings.

Thursday, December 3
55.6% PWE; Arkansas State 28, WESTERN KENTUCKY 27 (24-20 F)
70.5% PWE; OREGON 31, Oregon State 24 (37-33 F)

Friday, December 4
73.6% PWE; Central Michigan 27, Ohio 17 (20-10 F)

Saturday, December 5
54.2% PWE; Alabama 21, Florida 20 (32-13 F)
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 54, New Mexico State 0 (42-7 F)
67.1% PWE; California 28, WASHINGTON 20 (10-42 F) X
57.0% PWE; Cincinnati 29, PITTSBURGH 26 (45-44 F)
89.4% PWE; CONNECTICUT 34, South Florida 14 (29-27 F)
63.4% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 31, Florida Atlantic 27 (21-28 F) X
50.6% PWE; Fresno State 28, ILLINOIS 27 (53-52 F)
59.7% PWE; Georgia Tech 27, Clemson 24 (39-34 F)
65.6% PWE; Houston 31, EAST CAROLINA 24 (32-38 F) X
94.0% PWE; LOUISIANA TECH 35, San Jose State 11 (55-20 F)
78.9% PWE; Texas 28, Nebraska 14 (13-12 F)
54.0% PWE; USC 26, Arizona 24 (17-21 F) X
65.1% PWE; West Virginia 30, RUTGERS 23 (24-21 F)
96.7% PWE; Wisconsin 42, HAWAII 13 (51-10 F)

Week 13 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 28th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	11-0	0.302
2	Florida	11-0	0.292
3	Texas	12-0	0.242
4	Virginia Tech	9-3	0.239
5	Oregon	9-2	0.235
6	Cincinnati	10-0	0.234
7	TCU	11-0	0.221
8	Ohio State	10-2	0.211
9	Georgia Tech	9-2	0.207
10	Miami	8-3	0.205
11	Iowa	9-2	0.197
12	Oregon State	7-3	0.194
13	Stanford	8-4	0.193
14	Boise State	11-0	0.188
15	Arizona	6-4	0.179
16	Pittsburgh	8-2	0.179
17	Penn State	9-2	0.178
18	LSU	9-3	0.178
19	Clemson	7-4	0.177
20	USC	8-3	0.167
21	Texas Tech	7-4	0.161
22	Oklahoma	6-5	0.149
23	Arkansas	6-5	0.138
24	North Carolina	6-4	0.132
25	Connecticut	5-5	0.123
26	Mississippi	6-4	0.122
27	Georgia	6-5	0.120
28	Notre Dame	6-6	0.120
29	Tennessee	7-5	0.118
30	Wisconsin	7-3	0.115
31	Auburn	6-5	0.114
32	Boston College	7-4	0.113
33	Nebraska	9-3	0.113
34	Central Michigan	9-2	0.110
35	California	7-3	0.109
36	Florida State	5-6	0.105
37	West Virginia	7-3	0.104
38	Houston	9-2	0.102
39	South Carolina	6-5	0.085
40	Oklahoma State	8-3	0.078
41	Navy	7-4	0.077
42	Michigan State	5-6	0.070
43	Mississippi State	4-7	0.061
44	Kentucky	6-5	0.058
45	Wake Forest	4-7	0.053
46	UCLA	6-6	0.050
47	BYU	10-2	0.044
48	Purdue	5-7	0.043
49	Air Force	6-5	0.032
50	Northwestern	7-4	0.030
51	Minnesota	5-6	0.028
52	Temple	9-2	0.027
53	Missouri	7-4	0.027
54	Virginia	3-8	0.022
55	Arizona State	3-8	0.020
56	Utah	9-3	0.019
57	Ohio	8-3	0.011
58	Northern Illinois	6-5	0.010
59	Michigan	4-7	0.008
60	Rutgers	6-3	0.006
61	East Carolina	7-4	0.002
62	Washington	4-7	0.001
63	Kansas	4-7	-0.006
64	Southern Mississippi	6-5	-0.008
65	North Carolina State	3-7	-0.009
66	Texas A&M	6-6	-0.016
67	Duke	4-6	-0.028
68	Buffalo	4-7	-0.035
69	Central Florida	7-4	-0.037
70	South Florida	5-4	-0.037
71	Maryland	1-10	-0.037
72	Vanderbilt	1-10	-0.045
73	Fresno State	6-4	-0.045
74	Kansas State	4-6	-0.049
75	Indiana	3-8	-0.050
76	Louisiana Tech	2-8	-0.051
77	Nevada	8-4	-0.054
78	Bowling Green	7-5	-0.059
79	SMU	6-5	-0.070
80	Illinois	2-8	-0.072
81	Iowa State	5-6	-0.073
82	Colorado	3-9	-0.074
83	Middle Tennessee	9-3	-0.087
84	Syracuse	3-8	-0.090
85	Marshall	5-6	-0.091
86	Louisville	3-8	-0.095
87	Kent State	4-7	-0.096
88	Baylor	3-8	-0.097
89	Western Michigan	4-7	-0.100
90	Tulsa	4-7	-0.106
91	Troy	9-3	-0.107
92	UTEP	4-8	-0.111
93	Utah State	3-8	-0.111
94	Ball State	2-9	-0.113
95	UAB	5-7	-0.133
96	Colorado State	2-9	-0.137
97	Army	4-6	-0.140
98	Toledo	5-7	-0.151
99	Idaho	7-5	-0.155
100	Akron	2-9	-0.157
101	UNLV	4-7	-0.168
102	North Texas	2-10	-0.179
103	Arkansas State	2-8	-0.180
104	Memphis	1-10	-0.185
105	San Diego State	3-8	-0.187
106	Miami (OH)	1-11	-0.188
107	Florida International	3-8	-0.193
108	Hawaii	5-6	-0.194
109	Florida Atlantic	4-7	-0.207
110	Louisiana Monroe	5-6	-0.208
111	New Mexico	1-11	-0.211
112	Wyoming	5-6	-0.215
113	Louisiana Lafayette	5-6	-0.223
114	Western Kentucky	0-10	-0.229
115	Eastern Michigan	0-12	-0.231
116	Washington State	1-11	-0.241
117	Tulane	2-9	-0.249
118	San Jose State	1-9	-0.252
119	Rice	2-10	-0.285
120	New Mexico State	2-9	-0.292

Week 13 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 13 Forecasts are based on the Week 12 FEI Ratings.

Tuesday, November 24
65.5% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 27, Ball State 21 (17-22 F) X

Thursday, November 26
93.1% PWE; Texas 39, TEXAS A&M 14 (49-39 F)

Friday, November 27
80.1% PWE; AKRON 33, Eastern Michigan 20 (28-21 F)
82.8% PWE; Alabama 31, AUBURN 14 (26-21 F)
97.1% PWE; BOISE STATE 41, Nevada 12 (44-33 F)
80.7% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 34, Toledo 20 (38-24 F)
60.0% PWE; Buffalo 27, KENT STATE 23 (9-6 F)
77.8% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31, Northern Illinois 19 (45-31 F)
98.3% PWE; CINCINNATI 45, Illinois 9 (49-36 F)
78.0% PWE; COLORADO STATE 29, Wyoming 17 (16-17 F) X
81.4% PWE; Nebraska 28, COLORADO 12 (28-20 F)
67.4% PWE; Pittsburgh 30, WEST VIRGINIA 21 (16-19 F) X
60.7% PWE; Rutgers 27, LOUISVILLE 23 (34-14 F)
60.3% PWE; Temple 22, OHIO 17 (17-35 F) X
82.5% PWE; TULSA 33, Memphis 18 (33-30 F)

Saturday, November 28
78.7% PWE; Arizona 30, ARIZONA STATE 15 (20-17 F)
65.8% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 28, North Texas 23 (30-26 F)
78.6% PWE; Boston College 28, MARYLAND 14 (19-17 F)
68.1% PWE; BYU 28, Utah 22 (26-23 F)
66.4% PWE; Central Florida 28, UAB 20 (34-27 F)
83.5% PWE; Clemson 30, SOUTH CAROLINA 13 (17-34 F) X
95.5% PWE; CONNECTICUT 37, Syracuse 11 (56-31 F)
62.6% PWE; EAST CAROLINA 28, Southern Mississippi 23 (25-20 F)
80.1% PWE; FLORIDA 35, Florida State 21 (37-10 F)
69.3% PWE; FLORIDA ATLANTIC 40, Western Kentucky 33 (29-23 F)
92.2% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 40, Georgia 17 (24-30 F) X
98.5% PWE; HOUSTON 50, Rice 10 (73-14 F)
68.7% PWE; LSU 28, Arkansas 21 (33-30 F)
61.0% PWE; Marshall 28, UTEP 23 (21-52 F) X
87.5% PWE; Miami 33, SOUTH FLORIDA 13 (31-10 F)
64.5% PWE; Middle Tennessee 23, LOUISIANA MONROE 17 (38-19 F)
68.7% PWE; Mississippi 28, MISSISSIPPI STATE 19 (27-41 F) X
60.9% PWE; Missouri 26, Kansas 23 (41-39 F)
98.5% PWE; Navy 44, HAWAII 10 (17-24 F) X
90.6% PWE; North Carolina 35, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 12 (27-28 F) X
69.6% PWE; OKLAHOMA 24, Oklahoma State 17 (27-0 F)
76.4% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 26, New Mexico State 15 (13-10 F)
96.1% PWE; SMU 37, Tulane 10 (26-21 F)
76.5% PWE; STANFORD 40, Notre Dame 29 (45-38 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU 52, New Mexico 0 (51-10 F)
54.3% PWE; Tennessee 25, KENTUCKY 24 (30-24 F)
96.1% PWE; Texas Tech 38, Baylor 10 (20-13 F)
70.4% PWE; Troy 30, LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 21 (48-31 F)
71.1% PWE; UNLV 31, San Diego State 23 (28-24 F)
83.1% PWE; USC (h) 33, UCLA 17 (28-7 F)
57.6% PWE; Utah State 34, IDAHO 31 (52-49 F)
80.4% PWE; Virginia Tech 30, VIRGINIA 15 (42-13 F)
55.9% PWE; Wake Forest 27, DUKE 25 (45-34 F)
96.6% PWE; WASHINGTON 38, Washington State 10 (30-0 F)

Week 12 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 21st games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	10-0	0.286
2	Florida	10-0	0.253
3	Texas	11-0	0.247
4	TCU	10-0	0.242
5	Georgia Tech	9-1	0.238
6	Cincinnati	9-0	0.238
7	Virginia Tech	8-3	0.236
8	Clemson	7-3	0.235
9	Oregon	9-2	0.230
10	Ohio State	10-2	0.228
11	North Carolina	6-3	0.222
12	Miami	7-3	0.218
13	Iowa	9-2	0.205
14	Pittsburgh	8-1	0.202
15	Oregon State	7-3	0.192
16	Penn State	9-2	0.188
17	Boise State	10-0	0.184
18	Stanford	7-4	0.181
19	Arizona	5-4	0.180
20	USC	7-3	0.162
21	Florida State	5-5	0.157
22	Texas Tech	6-4	0.155
23	LSU	8-3	0.139
24	Mississippi	6-3	0.135
25	Connecticut	4-5	0.135
26	Boston College	6-4	0.132
27	Wisconsin	7-3	0.130
28	Oklahoma	5-5	0.123
29	Navy	7-3	0.121
30	California	7-3	0.117
31	Nebraska	8-3	0.109
32	Notre Dame	6-5	0.108
33	Arkansas	6-4	0.106
34	Central Michigan	8-2	0.103
35	Houston	8-2	0.096
36	West Virginia	6-3	0.092
37	Auburn	6-4	0.091
38	Oklahoma State	8-2	0.086
39	Tennessee	6-5	0.083
40	Michigan State	5-6	0.075
41	Temple	9-1	0.059
42	Virginia	3-7	0.055
43	Georgia	5-5	0.055
44	Purdue	5-7	0.050
45	UCLA	6-5	0.047
46	Wake Forest	3-7	0.045
47	BYU	9-2	0.043
48	Kentucky	6-4	0.040
49	Northwestern	7-4	0.038
50	South Carolina	5-5	0.035
51	Minnesota	5-6	0.034
52	Air Force	6-5	0.034
53	Northern Illinois	6-4	0.022
54	Missouri	6-4	0.022
55	Mississippi State	3-7	0.018
56	Michigan	4-7	0.013
57	East Carolina	6-4	0.013
58	Utah	9-2	0.012
59	Arizona State	3-7	0.009
60	Southern Mississippi	6-4	0.001
61	Rutgers	5-3	0.000
62	Washington	3-7	-0.001
63	Duke	4-5	-0.005
64	South Florida	5-3	-0.009
65	Kansas	4-6	-0.012
66	Ohio	7-3	-0.013
67	Texas A&M	6-5	-0.026
68	North Carolina State	2-7	-0.028
69	Central Florida	6-4	-0.030
70	Buffalo	3-7	-0.036
71	Maryland	1-9	-0.039
72	SMU	5-5	-0.040
73	Indiana	3-8	-0.042
74	Vanderbilt	1-10	-0.052
75	Marshall	5-5	-0.053
76	Kansas State	4-6	-0.053
77	Fresno State	6-4	-0.054
78	Bowling Green	6-5	-0.055
79	Louisiana Tech	2-8	-0.057
80	Nevada	8-3	-0.061
81	Illinois	2-7	-0.072
82	Louisville	3-7	-0.075
83	Iowa State	5-6	-0.078
84	Colorado	3-8	-0.079
85	Syracuse	3-7	-0.084
86	Tulsa	3-7	-0.090
87	Western Michigan	4-6	-0.100
88	Kent State	4-6	-0.106
89	Middle Tennessee	8-3	-0.107
90	Troy	8-3	-0.112
91	Baylor	3-7	-0.114
92	Utah State	2-8	-0.116
93	Ball State	1-9	-0.121
94	UTEP	3-8	-0.128
95	UAB	5-6	-0.135
96	Colorado State	2-8	-0.140
97	Army	4-6	-0.142
98	Akron	1-9	-0.145
99	Toledo	5-6	-0.155
100	UNLV	3-7	-0.161
101	Arkansas State	1-8	-0.171
102	Idaho	7-4	-0.174
103	Miami (OH)	1-11	-0.187
104	North Texas	2-9	-0.192
105	Florida International	3-8	-0.198
106	Memphis	1-9	-0.201
107	Louisiana Monroe	5-5	-0.202
108	Florida Atlantic	3-7	-0.203
109	San Diego State	3-7	-0.205
110	New Mexico	1-10	-0.218
111	Wyoming	4-6	-0.223
112	Hawaii	4-6	-0.229
113	Washington State	1-10	-0.235
114	Louisiana Lafayette	5-5	-0.238
115	Western Kentucky	0-9	-0.239
116	Eastern Michigan	0-11	-0.240
117	San Jose State	0-9	-0.242
118	Rice	2-9	-0.253
119	Tulane	2-8	-0.266
120	New Mexico State	2-8	-0.315

Week 12 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 11 Forecasts are based on the Week 11 FEI Ratings.

Wednesday, November 18
69.2% PWE; Buffalo 30, MIAMI (OH) 20 (42-17 F)
82.6% PWE; Central Michigan 31, BALL STATE 14 (35-3 F)

Thursday, November 19
93.5% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 34, Colorado 10 (31-28 F)

Friday, November 20
95.2% PWE; Boise State 38, UTAH STATE 10 (52-21 F)
78.8% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 29, Akron 17 (36-20 F)
78.1% PWE; TOLEDO 35, Eastern Michigan 23 (47-21 F)

Saturday, November 21
78.2% PWE; ARKANSAS 33, Mississippi State 21 (42-21 F)
58.8% PWE; Army 24, NORTH TEXAS 21 (17-13 F)
51.1% PWE; BYU 24, Air Force 23 (38-21 F)
95.0% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 35, Tulane 10 (49-0 F)
91.0% PWE; CLEMSON 31, Virginia 9 (34-21 F)
58.8% PWE; Colorado State 28, NEW MEXICO 24 (27-29 F) X
88.2% PWE; EAST CAROLINA (h) 35, UAB 16 (37-21 F)
98.5% PWE; FLORIDA 47, Florida International 0 (62-3 F)
94.0% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 41, Maryland 17 (29-26 F)
64.4% PWE; FRESNO STATE 30, Louisiana Tech 24 (30-28 F)
71.6% PWE; GEORGIA 30, Kentucky 22 (27-34 F) X
97.7% PWE; HOUSTON 45, Memphis 14 (55-14 F)
93.4% PWE; IOWA 35, Minnesota 11 (12-0 F)
51.7% PWE; LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 21, Louisiana Monroe 19 (21-17 F)
52.8% PWE; LSU 21, MISSISSIPPI (h) 20 (23-25 F) X
59.4% PWE; MARSHALL (h) 24, SMU 20 (34-31 F)
92.8% PWE; MIAMI 37, Duke 14 (34-16 F)
68.2% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24, Arkansas State 17 (38-14 F)
80.2% PWE; MISSOURI 34, Iowa State 21 (34-24 F)
92.5% PWE; NEBRASKA 33, Kansas State 10 (17-3 F)
84.8% PWE; Nevada 33, NEW MEXICO STATE 14 (63-20 F)
57.5% PWE; North Carolina 20, BOSTON COLLEGE 17 (31-13 F)
56.6% PWE; Northern Illinois 23, OHIO 21 (31-38 F) X
64.0% PWE; NOTRE DAME 33, Connecticut 28 (30-33 F) X
85.4% PWE; Ohio State 33, MICHIGAN 14 (21-10 F)
54.9% PWE; Oklahoma 23, TEXAS TECH 21 (13-41 F) X
50.9% PWE; Oregon 26, ARIZONA 25 (44-41 F)
98.5% PWE; Oregon State 45, WASHINGTON STATE 3 (42-10 F)
59.8% PWE; Penn State 27, MICHIGAN STATE 23 (42-14 F)
60.3% PWE; Purdue 27, INDIANA 23 (38-21 F)
75.0% PWE; Rutgers 28, SYRACUSE 16 (13-31 F) X
51.4% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 28, Hawaii 27 (10-17 F) X
75.7% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 27, Louisville 17 (34-22 F)
81.3% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 34, Tulsa 20 (44-34 F)
84.8% PWE; STANFORD 39, California 23 (28-34 F) X
98.5% PWE; TCU 45, WYOMING (h) 0 (45-10 F)
84.9% PWE; TEMPLE 31, Kent State 14 (47-13 F)
87.9% PWE; TENNESSEE 31, Vanderbilt 12 (31-16 F)
96.6% PWE; TEXAS 38, Kansas 10 (51-20 F)
68.4% PWE; TEXAS A&M 28, Baylor 21 (38-3 F)
76.3% PWE; TROY 39, Florida Atlantic 28 (47-21 F)
68.8% PWE; UCLA 24, Arizona State 17 (23-13 F)
90.8% PWE; UTAH 35, San Diego State 13 (38-7 F)
70.0% PWE; UTEP 33, RICE (h) 23 (29-30 F) X
96.6% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 42, North Carolina State 14 (38-10 F)
69.4% PWE; Wisconsin 29, NORTHWESTERN 20 (31-33 F) X

Week 11 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 15th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Alabama	10-0	0.280
2	TCU	9-0	0.253
3	Texas	10-0	0.249
4	Florida	9-0	0.247
5	Georgia Tech	9-1	0.246
6	Cincinnati	9-0	0.242
7	Virginia Tech	7-3	0.234
8	Clemson	6-3	0.230
9	Ohio State	9-2	0.222
10	Iowa	8-2	0.217
11	Oregon	8-2	0.206
12	Pittsburgh	8-1	0.205
13	North Carolina	5-3	0.198
14	Miami	6-3	0.197
15	Oregon State	6-3	0.191
16	Stanford	7-3	0.189
17	Boise State	9-0	0.179
18	Arizona	5-3	0.178
19	Oklahoma	5-4	0.174
20	Penn State	8-2	0.170
21	USC	7-3	0.153
22	LSU	8-2	0.153
23	Florida State	4-5	0.151
24	Boston College	6-3	0.140
25	Wisconsin	7-2	0.133
26	Nebraska	7-3	0.129
27	Texas Tech	5-4	0.128
28	Navy	7-3	0.123
29	Notre Dame	6-4	0.118
30	Mississippi	5-3	0.117
31	Connecticut	3-5	0.102
32	Michigan State	5-5	0.101
33	Oklahoma State	7-2	0.097
34	Central Michigan	7-2	0.096
35	Arkansas	5-4	0.094
36	Tennessee	5-5	0.086
37	Auburn	6-4	0.083
38	Houston	7-2	0.081
39	West Virginia	6-3	0.075
40	California	6-3	0.062
41	Virginia	3-6	0.058
42	Georgia	5-4	0.057
43	Air Force	6-4	0.056
44	Wake Forest	3-7	0.054
45	Temple	8-1	0.046
46	UCLA	5-5	0.038
47	Purdue	4-7	0.036
48	BYU	8-2	0.035
49	Rutgers	5-2	0.033
50	South Carolina	5-5	0.031
51	Northern Illinois	6-3	0.028
52	Missouri	5-4	0.023
53	Minnesota	5-5	0.023
54	Kansas	4-5	0.015
55	Northwestern	6-4	0.012
56	East Carolina	5-4	0.011
57	Kentucky	5-4	0.011
58	Mississippi State	3-6	0.011
59	Michigan	4-6	0.010
60	Duke	4-4	0.009
61	Southern Mississippi	5-4	0.007
62	Arizona State	3-6	0.004
63	Utah	8-2	0.000
64	North Carolina State	2-6	0.000
65	Washington	3-7	-0.005
66	South Florida	4-3	-0.013
67	Ohio	6-3	-0.026
68	Indiana	3-7	-0.036
69	Central Florida	5-4	-0.042
70	Texas A&M	5-5	-0.046
71	Maryland	1-8	-0.050
72	Fresno State	5-4	-0.052
73	Marshall	4-5	-0.053
74	SMU	5-4	-0.055
75	Buffalo	2-7	-0.056
76	Kansas State	4-5	-0.056
77	Bowling Green	5-5	-0.056
78	Vanderbilt	1-9	-0.063
79	Louisiana Tech	2-7	-0.069
80	Iowa State	5-5	-0.074
81	Illinois	2-7	-0.076
82	Baylor	3-6	-0.077
83	Kent State	4-5	-0.081
84	Louisville	3-6	-0.081
85	Nevada	7-3	-0.082
86	Tulsa	3-6	-0.097
87	Western Michigan	4-6	-0.098
88	Ball State	1-8	-0.098
89	Colorado	3-7	-0.098
90	Utah State	2-7	-0.114
91	Middle Tennessee	7-3	-0.115
92	Troy	7-3	-0.115
93	Syracuse	2-7	-0.118
94	UTEP	3-7	-0.132
95	Army	3-6	-0.132
96	UAB	5-5	-0.139
97	Akron	1-8	-0.144
98	Arkansas State	1-7	-0.145
99	Colorado State	2-7	-0.150
100	Toledo	4-6	-0.151
101	UNLV	3-7	-0.164
102	Florida International	3-7	-0.165
103	San Diego State	3-6	-0.171
104	Idaho	7-4	-0.174
105	Miami (OH)	1-10	-0.175
106	Memphis	1-8	-0.179
107	Florida Atlantic	3-6	-0.188
108	North Texas	2-8	-0.196
109	Louisiana Monroe	5-4	-0.203
110	New Mexico	0-10	-0.215
111	Wyoming	4-5	-0.218
112	Louisiana Lafayette	4-5	-0.222
113	Hawaii	3-6	-0.229
114	Eastern Michigan	0-10	-0.235
115	Western Kentucky	0-9	-0.236
116	Washington State	1-9	-0.241
117	San Jose State	0-8	-0.250
118	Tulane	2-7	-0.253
119	Rice	1-9	-0.256
120	New Mexico State	2-7	-0.290