Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Week 12 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 11 Forecasts are based on the Week 11 FEI Ratings.

Wednesday, November 18
69.2% PWE; Buffalo 30, MIAMI (OH) 20
82.6% PWE; Central Michigan 31, BALL STATE 14

Thursday, November 19
93.5% PWE; OKLAHOMA STATE 34, Colorado 10

Friday, November 20
95.2% PWE; Boise State 38, UTAH STATE 10
78.8% PWE; BOWLING GREEN 29, Akron 17
78.1% PWE; TOLEDO 35, Eastern Michigan 23

Saturday, November 21
78.2% PWE; ARKANSAS 33, Mississippi State 21
63.8% PWE; Arkansas State 33, WESTERN KENTUCKY 27
58.8% PWE; Army 24, NORTH TEXAS 21
51.1% PWE; BYU 24, Air Force 23
95.0% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 35, Tulane 10
91.0% PWE; CLEMSON 31, Virginia 9
58.8% PWE; Colorado State 28, NEW MEXICO 24
88.2% PWE; EAST CAROLINA (h) 35, UAB 16
98.5% PWE; FLORIDA 47, Florida International 0
94.0% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 41, Maryland 17
64.4% PWE; FRESNO STATE 30, Louisiana Tech 24
71.6% PWE; GEORGIA 30, Kentucky 22
97.7% PWE; HOUSTON 45, Memphis 14
93.4% PWE; IOWA 35, Minnesota 11
51.7% PWE; LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 21, Louisiana Monroe 19
52.8% PWE; LSU 21, MISSISSIPPI (h) 20
59.4% PWE; MARSHALL (h) 24, SMU 20
92.8% PWE; MIAMI 37, Duke 14
68.2% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24, Arkansas State 17
80.2% PWE; MISSOURI 34, Iowa State 21
92.5% PWE; NEBRASKA 33, Kansas State 10
84.8% PWE; Nevada 33, NEW MEXICO STATE 14
57.5% PWE; North Carolina 20, BOSTON COLLEGE 17
56.6% PWE; Northern Illinois 23, OHIO 21
64.0% PWE; NOTRE DAME 33, Connecticut 28
85.4% PWE; Ohio State 33, MICHIGAN 14
54.9% PWE; Oklahoma 23, TEXAS TECH 21
50.9% PWE; Oregon 26, ARIZONA 25
98.5% PWE; Oregon State 45, WASHINGTON STATE 3
59.8% PWE; Penn State 27, MICHIGAN STATE 23
60.3% PWE; Purdue 27, INDIANA 23
75.0% PWE; Rutgers 28, SYRACUSE 16
51.4% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 28, Hawaii 27
75.7% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 27, Louisville 17
81.3% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 34, Tulsa 20
84.8% PWE; STANFORD 39, California 23
98.5% PWE; TCU 45, WYOMING (h) 0
84.9% PWE; TEMPLE 31, Kent State 14
87.9% PWE; TENNESSEE 31, Vanderbilt 12
96.6% PWE; TEXAS 38, Kansas 10
68.4% PWE; TEXAS A&M 28, Baylor 21
76.3% PWE; TROY 39, Florida Atlantic 28
68.8% PWE; UCLA 24, Arizona State 17
90.8% PWE; UTAH 35, San Diego State 13
70.0% PWE; UTEP 33, RICE (h) 23
96.6% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 42, North Carolina State 14
69.4% PWE; Wisconsin 29, NORTHWESTERN 20

Week 11 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 15th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.
RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama10-00.280
2TCU9-00.253
3Texas10-00.249
4Florida9-00.247
5Georgia Tech9-10.246
6Cincinnati9-00.242
7Virginia Tech7-30.234
8Clemson6-30.230
9Ohio State9-20.222
10Iowa8-20.217
11Oregon8-20.206
12Pittsburgh8-10.205
13North Carolina5-30.198
14Miami6-30.197
15Oregon State6-30.191
16Stanford7-30.189
17Boise State9-00.179
18Arizona5-30.178
19Oklahoma5-40.174
20Penn State8-20.170
21USC7-30.153
22LSU8-20.153
23Florida State4-50.151
24Boston College6-30.140
25Wisconsin7-20.133
26Nebraska7-30.129
27Texas Tech5-40.128
28Navy7-30.123
29Notre Dame6-40.118
30Mississippi5-30.117
31Connecticut3-50.102
32Michigan State5-50.101
33Oklahoma State7-20.097
34Central Michigan7-20.096
35Arkansas5-40.094
36Tennessee5-50.086
37Auburn6-40.083
38Houston7-20.081
39West Virginia6-30.075
40California6-30.062
41Virginia3-60.058
42Georgia5-40.057
43Air Force6-40.056
44Wake Forest3-70.054
45Temple8-10.046
46UCLA5-50.038
47Purdue4-70.036
48BYU8-20.035
49Rutgers5-20.033
50South Carolina5-50.031
51Northern Illinois6-30.028
52Missouri5-40.023
53Minnesota5-50.023
54Kansas4-50.015
55Northwestern6-40.012
56East Carolina5-40.011
57Kentucky5-40.011
58Mississippi State3-60.011
59Michigan4-60.010
60Duke4-40.009
61Southern Mississippi5-40.007
62Arizona State3-60.004
63Utah8-20.000
64North Carolina State2-60.000
65Washington3-7-0.005
66South Florida4-3-0.013
67Ohio6-3-0.026
68Indiana3-7-0.036
69Central Florida5-4-0.042
70Texas A&M5-5-0.046
71Maryland1-8-0.050
72Fresno State5-4-0.052
73Marshall4-5-0.053
74SMU5-4-0.055
75Buffalo2-7-0.056
76Kansas State4-5-0.056
77Bowling Green5-5-0.056
78Vanderbilt1-9-0.063
79Louisiana Tech2-7-0.069
80Iowa State5-5-0.074
81Illinois2-7-0.076
82Baylor3-6-0.077
83Kent State4-5-0.081
84Louisville3-6-0.081
85Nevada7-3-0.082
86Tulsa3-6-0.097
87Western Michigan4-6-0.098
88Ball State1-8-0.098
89Colorado3-7-0.098
90Utah State2-7-0.114
91Middle Tennessee7-3-0.115
92Troy7-3-0.115
93Syracuse2-7-0.118
94UTEP3-7-0.132
95Army3-6-0.132
96UAB5-5-0.139
97Akron1-8-0.144
98Arkansas State1-7-0.145
99Colorado State2-7-0.150
100Toledo4-6-0.151
101UNLV3-7-0.164
102Florida International3-7-0.165
103San Diego State3-6-0.171
104Idaho7-4-0.174
105Miami (OH)1-10-0.175
106Memphis1-8-0.179
107Florida Atlantic3-6-0.188
108North Texas2-8-0.196
109Louisiana Monroe5-4-0.203
110New Mexico0-10-0.215
111Wyoming4-5-0.218
112Louisiana Lafayette4-5-0.222
113Hawaii3-6-0.229
114Eastern Michigan0-10-0.235
115Western Kentucky0-9-0.236
116Washington State1-9-0.241
117San Jose State0-8-0.250
118Tulane2-7-0.253
119Rice1-9-0.256
120New Mexico State2-7-0.290

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Week 11 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 11 Forecasts are based on the Week 10 FEI Ratings.

Tuesday, November 10
51.5% PWE; Ohio 24, BUFFALO 23 (27-24 F)

Wednesday, November 11
95.5% PWE; CENTRAL MICHIGAN 40, Toledo 14 (56-28 F)

Thursday, November 12
65.9% PWE; Bowling Green 27, MIAMI (OH) 20 (35-14 F)
89.2% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34, Ball State 14 (26-20 F)
51.0% PWE; South Florida 22, RUTGERS 21 (0-31 F) X

Friday, November 13
92.6% PWE; CINCINNATI 39, West Virginia 16 (24-21 F)
75.1% PWE; Temple 27, AKRON 15 (56-17 F)

Saturday, November 14
94.7% PWE; AIR FORCE (h) 38, UNLV 12 (45-17 F)
88.2% PWE; Alabama 35, MISSISSIPPI STATE 14 (31-3 F)
75.8% PWE; Arizona 33, CALIFORNIA 20 (16-24 F) X
91.9% PWE; ARKANSAS 40, Troy 17 (56-20 F)
68.9% PWE; Arkansas State 37, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 28 (18-35 F) X
54.9% PWE; Auburn 27, GEORGIA 26 (24-31 F) X
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 50, Idaho 9 (63-25 F)
65.0% PWE; Boston College 23, VIRGINIA 16 (14-10 F)
93.5% PWE; BYU 40, NEW MEXICO (h) 15 (24-19 F)
84.0% PWE; Clemson 35, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 (43-23 F)
88.5% PWE; Florida 31, SOUTH CAROLINA 10 (24-14 F)
74.2% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 30, North Texas 20 (35-28 F)
58.2% PWE; Florida State 31, WAKE FOREST 28 (41-28 F)
76.4% PWE; Fresno State 37, NEVADA 24 (14-52 F) X
80.7% PWE; Georgia Tech 37, DUKE 21 (49-10 F)
74.9% PWE; HAWAII 27, New Mexico State 17 (24-6 F)
79.7% PWE; Houston 35, CENTRAL FLORIDA 20 (32-37 F) X
70.1% PWE; IOWA STATE 29, Colorado 22 (17-10 F)
62.0% PWE; KANSAS STATE 27, Missouri 22 (12-38 F) X
59.7% PWE; Kentucky 24, VANDERBILT 20 (24-13 F)
76.2% PWE; LOUISIANA MONROE 34, Western Kentucky 23 (21-18 F)
75.7% PWE; LOUISVILLE 28, Syracuse 17 (10-9 F)
96.9% PWE; LSU 35, Louisiana Tech 7 (24-16 F)
60.6% PWE; Miami 24, NORTH CAROLINA 19 (24-33 F) X
57.0% PWE; Michigan State 26, PURDUE 24 (40-37 F)
82.5% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 27, Louisiana Lafayette 12 (34-17 F)
51.1% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 21, Tennessee 20 (42-17 F)
61.8% PWE; Nebraska 23, KANSAS 18 (31-17 F)
64.7% PWE; Northwestern 27, ILLINOIS 21 (21-16 F)
54.9% PWE; OHIO STATE 20, Iowa 17 (27-24 F)
93.9% PWE; OKLAHOMA 37, Texas A&M 13 (65-10 F)
94.8% PWE; OREGON 35, Arizona State 9 (44-21 F)
84.2% PWE; OREGON STATE 37, Washington 21 (48-21 F)
93.9% PWE; PENN STATE 37, Indiana 13 (31-20 F)
72.3% PWE; PITTSBURGH 35, Notre Dame 26 (27-22 F)
63.3% PWE; RICE 27, Tulane 23 (28-20 F)
73.4% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE 26, Wyoming 17 (27-30 F) X
80.9% PWE; SMU (h) 34, UTEP 20 (35-31 F)
57.7% PWE; Southern Mississippi 26, MARSHALL 24 (27-20 F)
97.0% PWE; TCU 37, Utah 8 (55-28 F)
94.4% PWE; Texas 37, BAYLOR 10 (47-14 F)
59.5% PWE; Texas Tech 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 23 (17-24 F) X
53.8% PWE; UAB 28, MEMPHIS (h) 27 (31-21 F)
94.9% PWE; UCLA 34, WASHINGTON STATE (h) 7 (43-7 F)
70.1% PWE; USC 34, Stanford 27 (21-55 F) X
89.0% PWE; UTAH STATE 37, San Jose State 17 (24-9 F)
92.3% PWE; Virginia Tech 37, MARYLAND 13 (36-9 F)
71.9% PWE; Western Michigan 31, EASTERN MICHIGAN 20 (35-14 F)
80.8% PWE; WISCONSIN 31, Michigan 17 (45-24 F)

Sunday, November 15
60.7% PWE; East Carolina 24, TULSA 20 (44-17 F)

Week 10 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 8th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.
RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama9-00.272
2TCU8-00.257
3Florida8-00.257
4Cincinnati8-00.242
5Texas9-00.234
6Georgia Tech8-10.233
7Virginia Tech6-30.230
8Miami6-20.228
9Clemson5-30.227
10Oregon7-20.226
11Iowa8-10.211
12Ohio State8-20.202
13Boise State8-00.201
14USC7-20.195
15Arizona5-20.192
16Pittsburgh7-10.190
17Oklahoma4-40.179
18Oregon State5-30.172
19Stanford6-30.156
20LSU7-20.156
21North Carolina4-30.154
22Penn State7-20.152
23Florida State3-50.148
24Boston College5-30.147
25Texas Tech5-30.144
26Notre Dame6-30.140
27Wisconsin6-20.122
28Navy7-30.117
29Nebraska6-30.117
30Tennessee5-40.100
31Connecticut3-50.096
32Houston7-10.094
33Arkansas4-40.089
34Wake Forest3-60.087
35Michigan State4-50.086
36Auburn6-30.084
37Central Michigan6-20.083
38Mississippi4-30.079
39Oklahoma State6-20.076
40West Virginia6-20.055
41UCLA4-50.053
42Duke4-30.051
43Virginia3-50.050
44Washington3-60.050
45Air Force5-40.048
46BYU7-20.043
47Mississippi State3-50.041
48Northern Illinois5-30.040
49Georgia4-40.039
50California5-30.038
51Kansas4-40.037
52Purdue4-60.031
53Fresno State5-30.028
54South Florida4-20.025
55North Carolina State2-50.024
56South Carolina5-40.023
57Michigan4-50.023
58Temple7-10.020
59Arizona State3-50.017
60Utah8-10.015
61Minnesota5-50.011
62Kentucky4-40.006
63Northwestern5-40.003
64Rutgers4-2-0.004
65Kansas State4-4-0.011
66Southern Mississippi4-4-0.014
67East Carolina4-4-0.019
68Texas A&M5-4-0.021
69Missouri4-4-0.021
70Maryland1-7-0.035
71Ohio5-3-0.042
72Indiana3-6-0.047
73SMU4-4-0.048
74Baylor3-5-0.050
75Iowa State4-5-0.062
76Vanderbilt1-8-0.063
77Louisville2-6-0.068
78Bowling Green4-5-0.072
79Marshall4-4-0.073
80Buffalo2-6-0.073
81Kent State4-5-0.082
82Central Florida4-4-0.083
83Louisiana Tech2-6-0.084
84Troy7-2-0.091
85Illinois2-6-0.092
86Tulsa3-5-0.093
87Arkansas State1-6-0.095
88Colorado3-6-0.102
89Western Michigan3-6-0.103
90Utah State1-7-0.104
91Middle Tennessee6-3-0.107
92Ball State1-7-0.118
93Nevada6-3-0.130
94Akron1-7-0.131
95Toledo4-5-0.135
96Syracuse2-6-0.136
97Army3-6-0.138
98Florida International2-7-0.148
99UTEP3-6-0.149
100UAB4-5-0.152
101Colorado State2-7-0.157
102Idaho7-3-0.157
103UNLV3-6-0.159
104Miami (OH)1-9-0.174
105San Diego State3-5-0.175
106Louisiana Monroe4-4-0.175
107Memphis1-7-0.193
108North Texas2-7-0.208
109Florida Atlantic2-6-0.213
110Louisiana Lafayette4-4-0.218
111Hawaii2-6-0.221
112Wyoming3-5-0.231
113New Mexico0-9-0.234
114Eastern Michigan0-9-0.236
115Washington State1-8-0.237
116Western Kentucky0-8-0.247
117Rice0-9-0.252
118San Jose State0-7-0.260
119Tulane2-6-0.266
120New Mexico State2-6-0.285

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Week 10 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 10 Forecasts are based on the Week 9 FEI Ratings.

Tuesday, November 3
59.9% PWE; BUFFALO 28, Bowling Green 24 (29-30 F) X

Thursday, November 5
97.2% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 43, Eastern Michigan 14 (50-6 F)
97.4% PWE; TEMPLE 35, Miami (OH) 6 (34-32 F)
86.1% PWE; Virginia Tech 37, EAST CAROLINA 17 (16-3 F)

Friday, November 6
97.2% PWE; Boise State 37, LOUISIANA TECH 8 (45-35 F)

Saturday, November 7
93.6% PWE; AIR FORCE 31, Army 7 (35-7 F)
82.8% PWE; ALABAMA (h) 29, LSU 14 (24-15 F)
98.5% PWE; ARIZONA 46, Washington State 3 (48-7 F)
64.5% PWE; ARKANSAS 26, South Carolina 21 (33-16 F)
86.3% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 31, Louisiana Lafayette 13 (18-21 F) X
74.0% PWE; BYU 29, WYOMING (h) 17 (52-0 F)
89.6% PWE; CINCINNATI 37, Connecticut 17 (47-45 F)
63.3% PWE; CLEMSON 31, Florida State 26 (40-24 F)
51.7% PWE; Colorado State 31, UNLV 30 (16-35 F) X
98.0% PWE; FLORIDA 41, Vanderbilt 3 (27-3 F)
84.8% PWE; Fresno State 47, IDAHO 28 (31-21 F)
89.7% PWE; GEORGIA TECH 40, Wake Forest 20 (30-27 F)
86.6% PWE; Houston 38, TULSA 18 (46-45 F)
98.0% PWE; IOWA 43, Northwestern 6 (10-17 F) X
63.9% PWE; Kansas 27, KANSAS STATE 21 (10-17 F) X
57.1% PWE; Kent State 22, AKRON 20 (20-28 F) X
85.5% PWE; MIAMI 30, Virginia 13 (52-17 F)
64.9% PWE; MICHIGAN 25, Purdue 20 (36-38 F) X
90.7% PWE; MICHIGAN STATE 37, Western Michigan 15 (49-14 F)
75.4% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24, Florida International 13 (48-21 F)
84.6% PWE; MINNESOTA 34, Illinois 17 (32-35 F) X
72.9% PWE; MISSOURI 24, Baylor 16 (32-40 F) X
67.7% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA 27, Duke 20 (19-6 F)
76.4% PWE; NORTH CAROLINA STATE 31, Maryland 20 (38-31 F)
61.7% PWE; NORTH TEXAS 27, Louisiana Monroe 23 (6-33 F) X
70.7% PWE; NOTRE DAME 34, Navy 27 (21-23 F) X
64.7% PWE; Oklahoma 24, NEBRASKA 19 (3-10 F) X
57.5% PWE; Oklahoma State 30, IOWA STATE 28 (34-8 F)
71.2% PWE; Oregon 35, STANFORD 24 (42-51 F) X
61.3% PWE; Oregon State 33, CALIFORNIA 28 (31-14 F)
62.6% PWE; PENN STATE 24, Ohio State 19 (7-24 F) X
98.5% PWE; PITTSBURGH 47, Syracuse 8 (37-10 F)
97.8% PWE; SMU 38, Rice 7 (31-28 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU 43, SAN DIEGO STATE (h) 6 (55-12 F)
96.9% PWE; TENNESSEE 38, Memphis 9 (56-28 F)
98.3% PWE; TEXAS 40, Central Florida 7 (35-3 F)
59.5% PWE; Texas A&M 27, COLORADO 23 (34-35 F) X
75.6% PWE; Troy 37, WESTERN KENTUCKY 24 (40-20 F)
51.9% PWE; UAB 30, Florida Atlantic 28 (56-29 F)
63.9% PWE; UCLA 26, Washington 21 (24-23 F)
81.4% PWE; USC 30, ARIZONA STATE (h) 14 (14-9 F)
97.5% PWE; UTAH 37, New Mexico 7 (45-14 F)
77.9% PWE; Utah State 35, HAWAII 21 (36-49 F) X
71.1% PWE; UTEP 31, TULANE (h) 21 (38-45 F) X
87.2% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 35, Louisville 16 (17-9 F)
81.4% PWE; Wisconsin 33, INDIANA 17 (31-28 F)

Sunday, November 8
58.6% PWE; SAN JOSE STATE 27, Nevada 24 (7-62 F) X

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Week 9 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of November 1st games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.
RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama8-00.272
2Florida7-00.268
3Oregon7-10.242
4TCU7-00.240
5Texas8-00.238
6Iowa8-00.238
7Cincinnati7-00.237
8Georgia Tech7-10.225
9Boise State7-00.214
10Virginia Tech5-30.212
11Miami5-20.208
12Pittsburgh6-10.190
13Oklahoma4-30.189
14USC6-20.184
15Clemson4-30.174
16Arizona4-20.170
17Penn State7-10.161
18Florida State3-40.161
19LSU7-10.159
20Ohio State7-20.150
21Boston College5-30.145
22Texas Tech5-30.141
23Oregon State4-30.131
24Notre Dame6-20.127
25Stanford5-30.112
26North Carolina3-30.109
27Wisconsin5-20.108
28Houston6-10.103
29Tennessee4-40.096
30Nebraska5-30.093
31Navy6-30.085
32Auburn6-30.083
33Mississippi4-30.081
34Duke4-20.080
35Virginia3-40.076
36Central Michigan6-20.076
37Connecticut3-40.075
38Arkansas3-40.072
39Air Force4-40.070
40Kansas4-30.069
41West Virginia5-20.066
42Michigan State3-50.064
43Wake Forest3-50.063
44South Carolina5-30.055
45California5-20.054
46Mississippi State3-50.046
47UCLA3-50.046
48Temple6-10.045
49Utah7-10.042
50Fresno State4-30.039
51Georgia4-40.035
52North Carolina State1-50.034
53Oklahoma State5-20.031
54Washington3-50.030
55South Florida4-20.030
56BYU6-20.023
57Northern Illinois4-30.020
58Michigan4-40.010
59Southern Mississippi4-40.005
60Kentucky4-40.001
61Arizona State3-4-0.003
62Minnesota5-4-0.005
63East Carolina4-3-0.005
64Purdue3-6-0.008
65Rutgers4-2-0.009
66Texas A&M5-3-0.020
67SMU3-4-0.022
68Kansas State3-4-0.022
69Iowa State4-4-0.027
70Missouri4-3-0.030
71Maryland1-6-0.039
72Central Florida4-3-0.047
73Ohio5-3-0.048
74Vanderbilt1-7-0.058
75Marshall4-4-0.063
76Buffalo2-5-0.075
77Louisville2-5-0.077
78Utah State1-6-0.078
79Indiana3-5-0.079
80Bowling Green3-5-0.079
81Baylor2-5-0.083
82Middle Tennessee5-3-0.085
83Kent State4-4-0.085
84Colorado2-6-0.087
85Northwestern4-4-0.089
86Arkansas State1-5-0.092
87Troy6-2-0.093
88Louisiana Tech2-5-0.100
89Western Michigan3-5-0.106
90Ball State1-7-0.114
91Tulsa3-4-0.118
92Wyoming3-4-0.122
93Army3-5-0.126
94Illinois1-6-0.130
95Colorado State2-6-0.136
96UTEP3-5-0.140
97Toledo4-5-0.141
98Akron0-7-0.141
99San Diego State3-4-0.142
100Memphis1-6-0.143
101Syracuse2-5-0.146
102Florida Atlantic2-5-0.151
103Florida International2-6-0.152
104UNLV2-6-0.168
105Idaho7-2-0.169
106UAB3-5-0.170
107North Texas2-6-0.180
108San Jose State0-6-0.183
109Nevada5-3-0.183
110Louisiana Monroe3-4-0.189
111Washington State1-7-0.200
112Miami (OH)1-8-0.206
113New Mexico0-8-0.211
114Eastern Michigan0-8-0.226
115Louisiana Lafayette3-4-0.229
116Hawaii1-6-0.244
117Western Kentucky0-7-0.246
118Tulane1-6-0.270
119New Mexico State2-6-0.277
120Rice0-8-0.283

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Week 9 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 9 Forecasts are based on the Week 8 FEI Ratings.

Tuesday, October 27
67.8% PWE; East Carolina 30, MEMPHIS 21 (38-19 F)

Thursday, October 29
95.7% PWE; VIRGINIA TECH 35, North Carolina 8 (17-20 F) X

Friday, October 30
66.5% PWE; West Virginia 28, SOUTH FLORIDA 20 (19-30 F) X

Saturday, October 31
71.2% PWE; Air Force 27, COLORADO STATE 17 (34-16 F)
97.3% PWE; ARKANSAS 42, Eastern Michigan 13 (63-27 F)
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 45, San Jose State 0 (45-7 F)
54.9% PWE; California 26, ARIZONA STATE 24 (23-21 F)
51.4% PWE; Central Michigan 21, BOSTON COLLEGE 20 (10-31 F) X
98.5% PWE; Cincinnati 42, SYRACUSE 6 (28-7 F)
53.3% PWE; COLORADO 24, Missouri 22 (17-36 F) X
88.7% PWE; CONNECTICUT 37, Rutgers 17 (24-28 F) X
90.7% PWE; Florida 35, Georgia 13 (41-17 F)
86.4% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 31, Louisiana Lafayette 14 (20-17 F)
87.8% PWE; FLORIDA STATE 40, North Carolina State 21 (45-42 F)
90.5% PWE; FRESNO STATE 41, Utah State 20 (31-27 F)
98.5% PWE; Georgia Tech 42, VANDERBILT 8 (56-31 F)
83.8% PWE; HOUSTON 38, Southern Mississippi 22 (50-43 F)
55.6% PWE; IDAHO 30, Louisiana Tech 27 (35-34 F)
98.5% PWE; IOWA 47, Indiana 3 (42-24 F)
76.6% PWE; Iowa State 34, TEXAS A&M 21 (10-35 F) X
58.7% PWE; KENT STATE 24, Western Michigan 21 (26-14 F)
50.1% PWE; KENTUCKY 25, Mississippi State 24 (24-31 F) X
64.0% PWE; LOUISVILLE 29, Arkansas State 24 (21-13 F)
98.5% PWE; LSU 50, Tulane 0 (42-0 F)
89.7% PWE; Miami 36, WAKE FOREST 14 (28-27 F)
90.8% PWE; Michigan 35, ILLINOIS 12 (13-38 F) X
68.9% PWE; Michigan State 33, MINNESOTA 24 (34-42 F) X
62.3% PWE; Middle Tennessee 28, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 23 (27-20 F)
51.6% PWE; Mississippi 24, AUBURN 23 (20-33 F) X
76.1% PWE; NAVY 28, Temple 17 (24-27 F) X
78.5% PWE; Nebraska 28, BAYLOR 13 (20-10 F)
79.4% PWE; NEVADA 37, Hawaii 24 (31-21 F)
75.7% PWE; NORTH TEXAS 35, Western Kentucky 24 (68-49 F)
95.2% PWE; NORTHERN ILLINOIS 38, Akron 12 (27-10 F)
98.5% PWE; Notre Dame 48, Washington State 10 (40-14 F)
60.8% PWE; Ohio 24, BALL STATE 19 (20-17 F)
98.5% PWE; OHIO STATE 51, New Mexico State 0 (45-0 F)
96.7% PWE; OKLAHOMA 35, Kansas State 6 (42-30 F)
50.4% PWE; OREGON (h) 22, USC 21 (47-20 F)
79.9% PWE; OREGON STATE (h) 33, UCLA 20 (26-19 F)
87.7% PWE; Penn State 35, NORTHWESTERN 14 (34-13 F)
87.4% PWE; SAN DIEGO STATE 33, New Mexico 14 (23-20 F)
63.3% PWE; SMU 27, TULSA (h) 21 (27-13 F)
98.5% PWE; TCU (h) 55, UNLV 3 (41-0 F)
61.8% PWE; TENNESSEE 22, South Carolina 17 (31-13 F)
69.1% PWE; Texas 30, OKLAHOMA STATE 21 (41-14 F)
70.7% PWE; TEXAS TECH 31, Kansas 23 (42-21 F)
60.7% PWE; Toledo 27, MIAMI (OH) 23 (24-31 F) X
81.3% PWE; TROY 31, Louisiana Monroe 17 (42-21 F)
94.3% PWE; UTAH 31, Wyoming 6 (22-10 F)
72.8% PWE; UTEP (h) 31, UAB 22 (33-38 F) X
73.9% PWE; VIRGINIA 29, Duke 20 (17-28 F) X
75.7% PWE; WISCONSIN 28, Purdue 17 (37-0 F)

Sunday, November 1
72.0% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA 24, Marshall 16 (21-20 F)

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Week 8 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of October 24th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.
RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama8-00.299
2Iowa7-00.298
3TCU6-00.294
4Georgia Tech6-10.293
5Virginia Tech5-20.285
6Miami4-20.278
7Florida6-00.265
8USC6-10.240
9Cincinnati6-00.234
10Boise State6-00.229
11Oregon6-10.216
12Texas7-00.210
13Clemson4-30.205
14Oklahoma3-30.203
15Arizona4-20.194
16LSU6-10.174
17Penn State6-10.171
18Pittsburgh6-10.168
19Ohio State6-20.167
20Notre Dame5-20.163
21Florida State2-40.142
22Oregon State3-30.136
23Central Michigan6-10.133
24Texas Tech4-30.121
25Stanford5-30.118
26Houston5-10.113
27Wisconsin4-20.111
28Michigan State3-40.107
29Boston College4-30.103
30Nebraska4-30.091
31Oklahoma State5-10.091
32Mississippi4-20.089
33Michigan4-30.087
34West Virginia5-10.087
35Connecticut3-30.085
36Kansas4-20.080
37Tennessee3-40.079
38Navy6-20.076
39Virginia3-30.072
40South Carolina5-20.070
41Iowa State4-30.065
42North Carolina2-30.065
43Northern Illinois3-30.063
44Auburn5-30.058
45Fresno State3-30.058
46Georgia4-30.057
47Washington3-50.053
48Utah6-10.053
49Arkansas2-40.050
50Air Force3-40.048
51Purdue3-50.043
52UCLA3-40.042
53California4-20.040
54Wake Forest3-40.035
55BYU6-20.034
56Mississippi State2-50.027
57Duke3-20.014
58Temple5-10.005
59Kentucky4-30.002
60Arizona State3-3-0.005
61North Carolina State1-4-0.006
62Southern Mississippi4-3-0.006
63Minnesota4-4-0.011
64South Florida3-2-0.018
65East Carolina3-3-0.027
66Kansas State3-3-0.033
67SMU2-4-0.038
68Central Florida3-3-0.039
69Ohio4-3-0.052
70Vanderbilt1-6-0.054
71Missouri3-3-0.055
72Maryland1-6-0.056
73Northwestern4-3-0.057
74Colorado2-5-0.069
75Rutgers3-2-0.069
76Buffalo2-5-0.073
77Louisville1-5-0.078
78Kent State3-4-0.078
79Baylor2-4-0.079
80Western Michigan3-4-0.079
81Bowling Green3-5-0.079
82Colorado State2-5-0.083
83Indiana3-4-0.085
84Marshall4-3-0.087
85Troy5-2-0.092
86Arkansas State1-4-0.093
87Middle Tennessee4-3-0.094
88Texas A&M4-3-0.094
89San Diego State2-4-0.098
90Utah State1-5-0.110
91Louisiana Tech2-4-0.120
92Toledo4-4-0.124
93Tulsa3-3-0.126
94Ball State1-6-0.126
95Idaho6-2-0.127
96Army3-5-0.130
97Syracuse2-4-0.136
98Florida International1-6-0.136
99UTEP3-4-0.139
100Memphis1-5-0.142
101Akron0-6-0.151
102Wyoming3-3-0.151
103San Jose State0-5-0.162
104Nevada4-3-0.165
105Illinois0-6-0.165
106UNLV2-5-0.174
107Florida Atlantic2-4-0.177
108North Texas1-6-0.186
109UAB2-5-0.192
110Louisiana Monroe3-3-0.196
111Miami (OH)0-8-0.198
112Eastern Michigan0-7-0.199
113Washington State1-6-0.202
114New Mexico0-7-0.244
115Western Kentucky0-6-0.254
116Hawaii1-5-0.256
117Louisiana Lafayette3-3-0.274
118Tulane1-5-0.276
119New Mexico State2-5-0.284
120Rice0-8-0.284

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Week 8 FEI Forecasts

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Week 8 Forecasts are based on the Week 7 FEI Ratings.

Wednesday, October 21
66.4% PWE; UTEP 26, Tulsa 21 (28-24 F)

Thursday, October 22
58.8% PWE; Florida State 27, NORTH CAROLINA 24 (30-27 F)

Friday, October 23
55.1% PWE; ARMY 23, Rutgers 21 (10-27 F) X

Saturday, October 24
96.1% PWE; ALABAMA 35, Tennessee 8 (12-10 F)
92.8% PWE; ARIZONA (h) 37, UCLA 14 (27-13 F)
69.3% PWE; ARKANSAS STATE 28, Florida International 21 (27-10 F)
68.0% PWE; Ball State 30, EASTERN MICHIGAN 21 (29-27 F)
98.5% PWE; Boise State 54, HAWAII 7 (54-9 F)
97.0% PWE; CALIFORNIA 38, Washington State 10 (49-17 F)
86.9% PWE; Central Florida 34, RICE 14 (49-7 F)
86.5% PWE; Central Michigan 34, BOWLING GREEN 14 (24-10 F)
98.2% PWE; CINCINNATI 47, Louisville 11 (41-10 F)
53.2% PWE; Colorado 24, KANSAS STATE 23 (6-20 F) X
78.3% PWE; COLORADO STATE 29, San Diego State 17 (28-42 F) X
50.2% PWE; Connecticut 25, WEST VIRGINIA 24 (24-28 F) X
85.4% PWE; DUKE 37, Maryland 20 (17-13 F)
90.7% PWE; Florida 37, MISSISSIPPI STATE 14 (29-19 F)
63.5% PWE; Florida Atlantic 27, LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 21 (51-29 F)
98.5% PWE; Fresno State 47, NEW MEXICO STATE 10 (34-3 F)
79.3% PWE; Georgia Tech 35, VIRGINIA 20 (34-9 F)
85.5% PWE; HOUSTON (h) 37, SMU 20 (38-15 F)
73.4% PWE; Idaho 39, NEVADA 28 (45-70 F) X
79.0% PWE; Iowa 33, MICHIGAN STATE 18 (15-13 F)
51.3% PWE; KANSAS 23, Oklahoma 22 (13-35 F) X
96.2% PWE; KENTUCKY 35, Louisiana Monroe 8 (36-13 F)
73.2% PWE; LSU 29, Auburn 20 (31-10 F)
84.1% PWE; MARSHALL (h) 34, UAB 17 (27-7 F)
85.5% PWE; MIAMI 30, Clemson 12 (37-40 F) X
60.5% PWE; MICHIGAN 24, Penn State 20 (10-35 F) X
85.8% PWE; MIDDLE TENNESSEE 34, Western Kentucky 17 (62-24 F)
54.1% PWE; MISSISSIPPI 24, Arkansas 22 (30-17 F)
74.3% PWE; NAVY 34, Wake Forest 24 (13-10 F)
79.2% PWE; NEBRASKA 33, Iowa State 20 (7-9 F) X
97.2% PWE; Northern Illinois 40, MIAMI (OH) 10 (27-22 F)
78.2% PWE; NORTHWESTERN 33, Indiana 20 (29-28 F)
82.7% PWE; NOTRE DAME 33, Boston College 18 (20-16 F)
84.2% PWE; OHIO 30, Kent State 13 (11-20 F) X
84.5% PWE; OHIO STATE 31, Minnesota 14 (38-7 F)
61.3% PWE; Oklahoma State 26, BAYLOR 21 (34-7 F)
59.1% PWE; Oregon 27, WASHINGTON 23 (43-19 F)
53.5% PWE; PITTSBURGH 22, South Florida 20 (41-14 F)
97.9% PWE; PURDUE 40, Illinois 9 (24-14 F)
89.7% PWE; SOUTH CAROLINA 30, Vanderbilt 9 (14-10 F)
98.3% PWE; SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 44, Tulane 11 (43-6 F)
76.8% PWE; STANFORD 34, Arizona State 23 (33-14 F)
71.5% PWE; SYRACUSE 26, Akron 17 (28-14 F)
83.8% PWE; TCU 38, BYU (h) 20 (38-7 F)
57.0% PWE; Temple 26, TOLEDO 24 (40-24 F)
86.6% PWE; Texas 30, MISSOURI 10 (41-7 F)
98.5% PWE; TEXAS TECH 50, Texas A&M 6 (30-52 F) X
51.8% PWE; TROY 28, North Texas 27 (50-26 F)
58.8% PWE; UNLV 27, NEW MEXICO (h) 24 (34-17 F)
79.4% PWE; USC 30, Oregon State 17 (42-36 F)
61.3% PWE; UTAH 21, Air Force 17 (23-16 F)
69.7% PWE; UTAH STATE 27, Louisiana Tech 20 (23-21 F)
69.9% PWE; WESTERN MICHIGAN 28, Buffalo 21 (34-31 F)

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Week 7 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of October 17th games. Only FBS games are considered. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found at FootballOutsiders.com.

RankTeamW-LFEI
1Alabama7-00.300
2Iowa6-00.290
3Virginia Tech5-20.281
4Cincinnati5-00.279
5Miami4-10.276
6Florida5-00.265
7TCU5-00.264
8Georgia Tech5-10.263
9USC5-10.249
10Boise State5-00.235
11Arizona3-20.211
12Texas6-00.203
13Oregon5-10.187
14Texas Tech4-20.184
15Notre Dame4-20.183
16Ohio State5-20.162
17Oregon State3-20.158
18Oklahoma2-30.156
19LSU5-10.155
20South Florida3-10.149
21Clemson3-30.145
22Wisconsin4-20.138
23Michigan4-20.136
24Kansas4-10.136
25Pittsburgh5-10.135
26Penn State5-10.130
27Florida State1-40.129
28Central Michigan5-10.128
29Stanford4-30.124
30Washington3-40.121
31Michigan State3-30.117
32Nebraska4-20.112
33Connecticut3-20.109
34Northern Illinois2-30.103
35Houston4-10.102
36Auburn5-20.100
37Virginia3-20.088
38West Virginia4-10.083
39Fresno State2-30.078
40South Carolina4-20.078
41Tennessee3-30.074
42Purdue2-50.073
43Boston College4-20.070
44Navy5-20.067
45North Carolina2-20.065
46BYU6-10.063
47Arkansas2-30.061
48Georgia4-30.057
49Utah5-10.050
50Mississippi3-20.049
51Arizona State3-20.048
52California3-20.043
53Air Force3-30.042
54Minnesota4-30.037
55Oklahoma State4-10.031
56Duke2-20.030
57Kentucky3-30.028
58UCLA3-30.023
59Iowa State3-30.022
60Mississippi State2-40.014
61Wake Forest3-30.006
62Southern Mississippi3-30.005
63Ohio4-2-0.007
64Missouri3-2-0.017
65North Carolina State1-4-0.019
66Northwestern3-3-0.025
67SMU2-3-0.030
68Louisville1-4-0.033
69East Carolina3-3-0.036
70Temple4-1-0.041
71Colorado2-4-0.044
72Colorado State2-4-0.046
73Baylor2-3-0.046
74Idaho6-1-0.054
75Central Florida2-3-0.064
76Western Michigan2-4-0.065
77Kansas State2-3-0.081
78Vanderbilt1-5-0.085
79Bowling Green3-4-0.091
80Marshall3-3-0.095
81Toledo4-3-0.096
82Maryland1-5-0.101
83Buffalo2-4-0.103
84Arkansas State0-4-0.106
85Middle Tennessee3-3-0.108
86Indiana3-3-0.109
87Syracuse1-4-0.110
88Ball State0-6-0.114
89Utah State0-5-0.116
90Rutgers2-2-0.124
91North Texas1-5-0.130
92Kent State2-4-0.130
93San Diego State1-4-0.130
94Army3-4-0.133
95UTEP2-4-0.137
96Florida International1-5-0.142
97Troy4-2-0.149
98Memphis1-5-0.150
99San Jose State0-5-0.150
100Wyoming3-3-0.153
101Louisiana Tech2-3-0.154
102Akron0-5-0.156
103Tulsa3-2-0.161
104Florida Atlantic1-4-0.172
105UNLV1-5-0.190
106Illinois0-5-0.191
107Nevada3-3-0.196
108Washington State1-5-0.199
109Louisiana Monroe3-2-0.200
110Texas A&M3-3-0.204
111Miami (OH)0-7-0.211
112UAB2-4-0.218
113Eastern Michigan0-6-0.227
114Western Kentucky0-5-0.242
115Hawaii1-4-0.244
116New Mexico0-6-0.254
117Louisiana Lafayette3-2-0.261
118Tulane1-4-0.285
119Rice0-7-0.286
120New Mexico State2-4-0.303