Moving on up

I've launched the new home of BCF Toys, a site dedicated to featuring my college football program, team, unit, and schedule ratings, season and game projections, data visualizations and more.

FEI Final 2010 Ratings

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI		Rk	Team	W-L	FEI		Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	13-0	.348		41	Northern Illinois	10-3	.074		81	UCLA	4-8	-.078
2	Stanford	11-1	.302		42	Air Force	8-4	.065		82	Iowa State	4-7	-.087
3	Alabama	9-3	.281		43	Syracuse	6-5	.060		83	California	4-7	-.088
4	Oregon	11-1	.267		44	Arizona	6-6	.056		84	UAB	4-8	-.089
5	Virginia Tech	11-2	.249		45	Kentucky	5-7	.053		85	North Texas	3-9	-.091
6	LSU	10-2	.247		46	Oregon State	5-7	.053		86	Fresno State	7-5	-.100
7	Arkansas	9-3	.245		47	Utah	10-3	.052		87	W. Kentucky	2-10	-.102
8	Ohio State	12-1	.234		48	Kansas State	6-6	.046		88	Purdue	3-8	-.102
9	Oklahoma	12-2	.231		49	Connecticut	7-5	.044		89	Indiana	4-7	-.105
10	TCU	12-0	.229		50	Boston College	6-6	.040		90	Middle Tenn.	5-7	-.107
11	Boise State	12-1	.213		51	Southern Miss.	7-5	.018		91	Louisiana Tech	4-7	-.112
12	Wisconsin	10-2	.211		52	Georgia Tech	5-7	.018		92	Kent State	4-7	-.124
13	NC State	8-4	.209		53	Tulsa	9-3	.013		93	Toledo	8-5	-.126
14	West Virginia	8-4	.190		54	Cincinnati	3-8	.007		94	Ohio	7-5	-.128
15	Missouri	9-3	.190		55	Michigan	6-6	.005		95	LA-Monroe	4-7	-.128
16	South Carolina	8-5	.185		56	Penn State	6-6	.004		96	Washington State	1-10	-.129
17	Oklahoma State	11-2	.184		57	FIU	7-6	.003		97	LA-Lafayette	3-9	-.136
18	Florida State	9-4	.182		58	Washington	7-6	-.004		98	Vanderbilt	2-10	-.144
19	Nebraska	9-4	.179		59	Tennessee	5-7	-.013		99	Florida Atlantic	4-8	-.148
20	Pittsburgh	7-5	.168		60	Arkansas State	4-8	-.014		100	Tulane	3-8	-.151
21	Iowa	7-5	.161		61	Army	6-6	-.015		101	UTEP	5-7	-.153
22	Miami	6-6	.143		62	Hawaii	9-4	-.015		102	Idaho	5-7	-.155
23	Notre Dame	8-5	.140		63	Mississippi	4-7	-.015		103	Bowling Green	2-10	-.159
24	Maryland	8-4	.130		64	Troy	8-5	-.017		104	Miami (OH)	10-4	-.159
25	Clemson	5-7	.130		65	Texas Tech	7-5	-.020		105	Wake Forest	2-9	-.161
26	USC	8-5	.124		66	BYU	7-6	-.021		106	Marshall	5-7	-.164
27	Mississippi State	8-4	.123		67	Western Michigan	5-6	-.026		107	Utah State	3-8	-.174
28	Texas A&M	8-4	.120		68	SMU	7-7	-.029		108	Buffalo	1-10	-.188
29	Nevada	12-1	.107		69	Rutgers	3-8	-.030		109	Ball State	3-7	-.194
30	South Florida	7-5	.107		70	Temple	7-4	-.031		110	Kansas	3-8	-.197
31	Louisville	6-6	.102		71	Northwestern	6-6	-.035		111	Wyoming	2-9	-.204
32	Navy	8-4	.102		72	Texas	5-7	-.038		112	Rice	4-8	-.205
33	North Carolina	7-5	.102		73	Baylor	6-6	-.048		113	San Jose State	0-11	-.208
34	Georgia	5-7	.096		74	Houston	4-7	-.049		114	Eastern Michigan	2-10	-.239
35	Illinois	6-6	.090		75	East Carolina	6-7	-.052		115	Akron	1-10	-.241
36	Florida	7-5	.087		76	Minnesota	3-8	-.054		116	UNLV	2-11	-.287
37	Arizona State	4-6	.086		77	Duke	2-9	-.063		117	New Mexico	1-11	-.289
38	Central Florida	10-3	.084		78	Central Michigan	2-9	-.069		118	Memphis	1-11	-.290
39	Michigan State	10-2	.082		79	Colorado	5-7	-.077		119	Colorado State	3-9	-.291
40	San Diego State	8-4	.080		80	Virginia	2-8	-.078		120	N. Mexico State	2-10	-.305

AP Top 25 Scheduling Update

Year	Teams	Ind	FBS Games	FCS Games	Bowl Games	T25 Games	Pct of Games	T25 Bowls	T25 Conf CG	T25 Conf	T25 Non Conf	T25 vs FCS
1989	106	25	582	50	18	52	8.9%	10	0	19	23	2
1990	107	26	579	67	19	49	8.5%	10	0	21	18	10
1991	107	19	586	53	18	46	7.8%	9	0	16	21	10
1992	107	16	588	49	18	44	7.5%	9	1	25	9	7
1993	106	11	585	47	19	46	7.9%	7	1	27	11	5
1994	107	12	593	43	19	45	7.6%	8	1	27	9	7
1995	108	13	597	43	18	44	7.4%	8	0	25	11	7
1996	111	11	614	48	18	46	7.5%	9	3	24	10	5
1997	112	9	628	38	20	46	7.3%	8	2	29	7	1
1998	112	8	627	47	22	48	7.7%	9	1	26	12	4
1999	114	7	633	53	23	55	8.7%	9	2	36	8	6
2000	115	8	641	55	25	45	7.0%	8	2	27	8	6
2001	117	7	652	57	25	48	7.4%	10	1	28	9	4
2002	117	6	707	65	28	48	6.8%	7	1	25	15	11
2003	117	4	699	72	28	44	6.3%	9	3	24	8	9
2004	117	2	651	56	28	36	5.5%	9	1	20	6	8
2005	119	4	664	54	28	44	6.6%	9	2	27	6	9
2006	119	4	714	78	32	44	6.2%	8	1	27	8	15
2007	119	3	712	80	32	45	6.3%	9	3	29	4	18
2008	120	4	717	87	34	46	6.4%	9	2	27	8	22
2009	120	3	714	94	34	39	5.5%	7	3	23	6	17
2010	120	3	718	90	35	44	6.1%	7	3	29	5	21

Ind - Independent teams; T25 Games - Games played between teams that finished the year ranked in the final AP top-25 poll; T25 Conf CG - Conference championship games played between final AP top-25 teams. Though these games are scheduled before the season, the participants are not known until the end of the regular season; T25 Conf - Conference games between final AP top-25 teams; T25 Non Conf - Non-conference regular season games between AP top-25 teams, including independents.

*** *** *** *** ***

This data was first collected and published in March along with a companion infographic, and has been updated to include the final Associated Press top-25 rankings data for the 2010 college football season. Only five regular season non-conference games were played this year between teams that were ranked in the final AP top-25 poll:

• September 6:  No. 9 Boise State vs. No. 16 Virginia Tech
• September 11: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 17 Florida State
• September 11: No. 21 Central Florida vs. No. 25 North Carolina State
• September 18: No. 13 Oklahoma State vs. No. 24 Tulsa
• October 9: No. 12 Arkansas vs. No. 19 Texas A&M

Adding seven bowl games, a grand total of 12 non-conference games were played between Associated Press final top-25 teams in 2010.

FEI Forecasts: Bowls (Dec. 18 - Jan. 10)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. All bowl game sites are considered neutral.

Saturday, December 18
69.4% PWE; BYU 28, UTEP 20 (52-24 F)
77.3% PWE; Northern Illinois 33, Fresno State 20 (40-17 F)
57.9% PWE; Troy 25, Ohio 23 (48-21 F)

Tuesday, December 21
71.8% PWE; Louisville 30, Southern Mississippi 21 (31-28 F)

Wednesday, December 22
85.7% PWE; Boise State 31, Utah 13 (26-3 F)

Thursday, December 23
76.9% PWE; Navy 33, San Diego State 21 (14-35 F)

Friday, December 24
52.8% PWE; Hawaii 28, Tulsa 27 (35-62 F)

Sunday, December 26
80.2% PWE; Florida International 31, Toledo 17 (34-32 F)

Monday, December 27
59.1% PWE; Air Force 30, Georgia Tech 27 (14-7 F)

Tuesday, December 28
60.9% PWE; Missouri 24, Iowa 20 (24-27 F)
55.5% PWE; West Virginia 21, North Carolina State 19 (7-23 F)

Wednesday, December 29
80.6% PWE; Illinois 35, Baylor 20 (38-14 F)
84.9% PWE; Maryland 38, East Carolina 21 (51-20 F)
75.9% PWE; Oklahoma State 33, Arizona 21 (36-10 F)

Thursday, December 30
55.9% PWE; Army 27, SMU 25 (16-14 F)
94.9% PWE; Nebraska 37, Washington 11 (7-19 F)
78.9% PWE; North Carolina 31, Tennessee 17 (30-27 F)
50.1% PWE; Syracuse 25, Kansas State 24 (36-34 F)

Friday, December 31
63.2% PWE; Clemson 21, South Florida 16 (26-31 F)
60.1% PWE; Georgia 27, Central Florida 24 (6-10 F)
68.3% PWE; Miami 24, Notre Dame 17 (17-33 F)
58.2% PWE; South Carolina 30, Florida State 27 (17-26 F)

Saturday, January 1
74.9% PWE; Alabama 31, Michigan State 20 (49-7 F)
66.4% PWE; Florida 27, Penn State 21 (37-24 F)
65.1% PWE; Mississippi State 30, Michigan 24 (52-14 F)
87.5% PWE; Oklahoma 32, Connecticut 13 (48-20 F)
51.3% PWE; Texas Tech 27, Northwestern 26 (45-38 F)
59.9% PWE; Wisconsin 27, TCU 24 (19-21 F)

Monday, January 3
52.2% PWE; Virginia Tech 26, Stanford 25 (12-40 F)

Tuesday, January 4
56.9% PWE; Arkansas 26, Ohio State 24 (26-31 F)

Thursday, January 6
66.2% PWE; Middle Tennessee 23, Miami (OH) 17 (21-35 F)

Friday, January 7
70.5% PWE; LSU 26, Texas A&M 17 (41-24 F)

Saturday, January 8
70.1% PWE; Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 23 (27-10 F)

Sunday, January 9
68.3% PWE; Nevada 28, Boston College 21 (20-13 F)

Monday, January 10
69.2% PWE; Auburn 31, Oregon 23 (22-19 F)

Best and Worst Kickers in 2010

Following up on last week's Lou Groza Finalists infographic, the nation's best and worst place kicking teams according to field goal efficiency (FGE) are provided in the graphic above. Nebraska's Alex Henery was not named a Groza Award finalist, but did receive an Associated Press first-team All-American honor this week.

FEI Ratings: Week 15

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI		Rk	Team	W-L	FEI		Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	12-0	.334		41	Northern Illinois	9-3	.062		81	Colorado	5-7	-.073
2	Virginia Tech	11-1	.271		42	Arizona	6-5	.062		82	Virginia	2-8	-.073
3	Stanford	10-1	.265		43	Air Force	7-4	.050		83	UCLA	4-8	-.083
4	Oregon	11-0	.260		44	Michigan	6-5	.048		84	Iowa State	4-7	-.088
5	Alabama	8-3	.258		45	Connecticut	7-4	.048		85	UAB	4-8	-.092
6	Arkansas	9-2	.251		46	Oregon State	5-7	.046		86	North Texas	3-9	-.093
7	Ohio State	11-1	.232		47	Syracuse	5-5	.044		87	California	4-7	-.094
8	Oklahoma	11-2	.231		48	Kansas State	6-5	.044		88	Purdue	3-8	-.096
9	Wisconsin	10-1	.227		49	Utah	10-2	.044		89	Indiana	4-7	-.099
10	LSU	9-2	.226		50	Boston College	6-5	.034		90	W. Kentucky	2-10	-.102
11	Boise State	11-1	.214		51	Georgia Tech	5-6	.023		91	Louisiana Tech	4-7	-.103
12	Nebraska	9-3	.202		52	Penn State	6-5	.019		92	Middle Tenn.	5-6	-.104
13	Missouri	9-2	.198		53	San Diego State	7-4	.019		93	Kent State	4-7	-.113
14	TCU	11-0	.197		54	Southern Miss.	7-4	.010		94	UTEP	5-6	-.128
15	West Virginia	8-3	.197		55	Cincinnati	3-8	.005		95	Toledo	8-4	-.132
16	South Carolina	8-4	.187		56	FIU	6-6	.004		96	LA Monroe	4-7	-.133
17	NC State	7-4	.182		57	Hawaii	9-3	.001		97	Washington State	1-10	-.133
18	Miami	6-5	.176		58	Tulsa	8-3	-.006		98	LA Lafayette	3-9	-.134
19	Oklahoma State	10-2	.173		59	Mississippi	4-7	-.009		99	Vanderbilt	2-10	-.142
20	Iowa	6-5	.164		60	Arkansas State	4-8	-.015		100	Tulane	3-8	-.149
21	Florida State	8-4	.163		61	Army	5-6	-.016		101	Florida Atlantic	4-8	-.149
22	Michigan State	10-1	.152		62	Western Michigan	5-6	-.022		102	Idaho	5-7	-.149
23	Pittsburgh	6-5	.150		63	Temple	7-4	-.023		103	Bowling Green	2-10	-.152
24	Texas A&M	8-3	.146		64	Tennessee	5-6	-.023		104	Marshall	5-7	-.153
25	Navy	8-3	.136		65	Texas Tech	6-5	-.024		105	Wake Forest	2-9	-.161
26	Clemson	5-6	.132		66	Northwestern	6-5	-.027		106	Miami (OH)	9-4	-.162
27	Maryland	7-4	.125		67	Rutgers	3-8	-.032		107	Utah State	3-8	-.174
28	USC	8-5	.120		68	SMU	7-6	-.033		108	Buffalo	1-10	-.183
29	Notre Dame	7-5	.107		69	Texas	5-7	-.035		109	Ball State	3-7	-.191
30	North Carolina	6-5	.106		70	Baylor	6-5	-.041		110	Kansas	3-8	-.194
31	Nevada	11-1	.103		71	East Carolina	6-6	-.041		111	Rice	4-8	-.202
32	Georgia	5-6	.101		72	Troy	7-5	-.047		112	San Jose State	0-11	-.204
33	Mississippi State	7-4	.100		73	Minnesota	3-8	-.048		113	Wyoming	2-9	-.210
34	Illinois	5-6	.098		74	Washington	6-6	-.049		114	Akron	1-10	-.235
35	Louisville	5-6	.098		75	Houston	4-7	-.050		115	Eastern Michigan	2-10	-.236
36	South Florida	6-5	.088		76	BYU	6-6	-.053		116	Memphis	1-11	-.291
37	Florida	6-5	.078		77	Duke	2-9	-.057		117	UNLV	2-11	-.291
38	Arizona State	4-6	.078		78	Fresno State	7-4	-.058		118	New Mexico	1-11	-.293
39	Kentucky	5-6	.071		79	Central Michigan	2-9	-.066		119	Colorado State	3-9	-.295
40	Central Florida	9-3	.070		80	Ohio	7-4	-.069		120	N. Mexico St.	2-10	-.301

FEI Forecasts: Week 15 (Dec. 11)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Saturday, December 11
82.2% PWE; Navy 37, Army 21 (31-17 F)

FEI Forecasts for all bowl games will be posted on Thursday, December 16th.

FEI Ratings: Week 14

Rk	Team	W-L	FEI		Rk	Team	W-L	FEI		Rk	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Auburn	12-0	.334		41	Northern Illinois	9-3	.062		81	Colorado	5-7	-.073
2	Virginia Tech	11-1	.271		42	Arizona	6-5	.062		82	Virginia	2-8	-.073
3	Stanford	10-1	.265		43	Air Force	7-4	.050		83	UCLA	4-8	-.083
4	Oregon	11-0	.260		44	Connecticut	7-4	.048		84	Iowa State	4-7	-.088
5	Alabama	8-3	.258		45	Michigan	6-5	.048		85	UAB	4-8	-.092
6	Arkansas	9-2	.251		46	Oregon State	5-7	.046		86	North Texas	3-9	-.093
7	Ohio State	11-1	.232		47	Syracuse	5-5	.045		87	California	4-7	-.094
8	Oklahoma	11-2	.230		48	Kansas State	6-5	.044		88	Purdue	3-8	-.096
9	Wisconsin	10-1	.227		49	Utah	10-2	.044		89	Indiana	4-7	-.099
10	LSU	9-2	.226		50	Boston College	6-5	.034		90	W. Kentucky	2-10	-.102
11	Boise State	11-1	.214		51	Georgia Tech	5-6	.022		91	Louisiana Tech	4-7	-.103
12	Nebraska	9-3	.202		52	Penn State	6-5	.019		92	Middle Tenn.	5-6	-.104
13	Missouri	9-2	.198		53	San Diego State	7-4	.019		93	Kent State	4-7	-.113
14	West Virginia	8-3	.197		54	Southern Miss.	7-4	.010		94	UTEP	5-6	-.128
15	TCU	11-0	.197		55	Cincinnati	3-8	.005		95	Toledo	8-4	-.132
16	South Carolina	8-4	.187		56	FIU	6-6	.004		96	LA-Monroe	4-7	-.133
17	NC State	7-4	.182		57	Hawaii	9-3	.001		97	Washington State	1-10	-.133
18	Miami	6-5	.176		58	Tulsa	8-3	-.006		98	LA-Lafayette	3-9	-.134
19	Oklahoma State	10-2	.173		59	Mississippi	4-7	-.009		99	Vanderbilt	2-10	-.142
20	Iowa	6-5	.164		60	Army	5-5	-.015		100	Tulane	3-8	-.149
21	Florida State	8-4	.163		61	Arkansas State	4-8	-.015		101	Florida Atlantic	4-8	-.149
22	Michigan State	10-1	.153		62	Western Michigan	5-6	-.022		102	Idaho	5-7	-.149
23	Pittsburgh	6-5	.150		63	Temple	7-4	-.022		103	Bowling Green	2-10	-.152
24	Texas A&M	8-3	.145		64	Tennessee	5-6	-.023		104	Marshall	5-7	-.153
25	Navy	7-3	.134		65	Texas Tech	6-5	-.024		105	Wake Forest	2-9	-.161
26	Clemson	5-6	.132		66	Northwestern	6-5	-.027		106	Miami (OH)	9-4	-.161
27	Maryland	7-4	.124		67	Rutgers	3-8	-.032		107	Utah State	3-8	-.174
28	USC	8-5	.120		68	SMU	7-6	-.033		108	Buffalo	1-10	-.182
29	Notre Dame	7-5	.107		69	Texas	5-7	-.035		109	Ball State	3-7	-.191
30	North Carolina	6-5	.106		70	Baylor	6-5	-.041		110	Kansas	3-8	-.194
31	Nevada	11-1	.103		71	East Carolina	6-6	-.041		111	Rice	4-8	-.203
32	Georgia	5-6	.101		72	Troy	7-5	-.047		112	San Jose State	0-11	-.204
33	Mississippi State	7-4	.100		73	Minnesota	3-8	-.048		113	Wyoming	2-9	-.210
34	Illinois	5-6	.098		74	Washington	6-6	-.049		114	Akron	1-10	-.235
35	Louisville	5-6	.098		75	Houston	4-7	-.050		115	Eastern Michigan	2-10	-.236
36	South Florida	6-5	.088		76	BYU	6-6	-.053		116	Memphis	1-11	-.291
37	Florida	6-5	.078		77	Duke	2-9	-.058		117	UNLV	2-11	-.291
38	Arizona State	4-6	.078		78	Fresno State	7-4	-.058		118	New Mexico	1-11	-.293
39	Kentucky	5-6	.071		79	Central Michigan	2-9	-.066		119	Colorado State	3-9	-.295
40	Central Florida	9-3	.070		80	Ohio	7-4	-.069		120	N. Mexico St.	2-10	-.301

Lou Groza Award Finalists

A field goal is worth three points. But the value of each successful field goal is partially attributed to the offense that moves into field goal range as well as the player that kicks the ball through the uprights. A failed field goal attempt is a forfeiture of scoring value created by the offense. The value of a 47-yard field goal is equally earned by the offense and kicker, 50 percent each. 84 percent of the value of a 27-yard field goal is earned by the offense. 99 percent of the value of a 57-yard field goal is earned by the kicker.


The Lou Groza Award is given annually to the nation’s top collegiate place-kicker as determined by a voting panel of college football coaches and media members. The field goal statistics of the 2010 award finalists are visualized in the graphic above. For each kicker, the number of attempts and successful field goals are included, as well as the total scoring value gained and forfeited on those attempts. Field goal efficiency (FGE) is the average scoring value gained per attempted kick.
A graphic representation of each kick is plotted at the line of scrimmage of the given field goal attempt. The gray area represents the scoring value provided by the offense. The blue area represents the scoring value provided by the kicker. The red area represents the scoring value earned by the offense that was forfeited by the kicker on a failed attempt. Click here for a larger view of the graphic. For more information about the Lou Groza Award, visit http://www.lougrozaaward.com/.

FEI Forecasts: Week 14 (Dec. 2 - 4)

FEI Forecasts represent the expected Margin of Victory at the conclusion of Competitive Possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, the projected number of Competitive Possessions to be played, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team. Home teams are listed in all caps, or indicated with (h).

Thursday, December 2
57.3% PWE; ARIZONA 27, Arizona State 24 (29-30 F)

Friday, December 3
81.6% PWE; Illinois 30, FRESNO STATE 14 (23-25 F)
96.5% PWE; Northern Illinois 40, Miami (OH) 11 (21-26 F)

Saturday, December 4
73.8% PWE; Auburn 34, South Carolina 23 (56-17 F)
98.5% PWE; BOISE STATE 50, Utah State 6 (50-14 F)
80.7% PWE; CENTRAL FLORIDA (h) 31, SMU 17 (17-7 F)
85.2% PWE; FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 30, Middle Tennessee 13 (27-28 F)
98.2% PWE; HAWAII (h) 42, UNLV 9 (59-21 F)
77.8% PWE; IDAHO 31, San Jose State 19 (26-23 F)
80.4% PWE; Nevada 36, LOUISIANA TECH 20 (35-17 F)
56.7% PWE; Oklahoma 24, Nebraska 22 (23-20 F)
84.0% PWE; Oregon 35, OREGON STATE 17 (37-20 F)
70.3% PWE; Pittsburgh 31, CINCINNATI 21 (28-10 F)
77.0% PWE; SOUTH FLORIDA 26, Connecticut 15 (16-19 F)
54.9% PWE; Troy 24, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 23 (44-7 F)
82.2% PWE; USC 33, UCLA (h) 16 (28-14 F)
68.4% PWE; Virginia Tech 30, FLORIDA STATE 23 (44-33 F)
63.7% PWE; Washington 30, WASHINGTON STATE 24 (35-28 F)
95.7% PWE; WEST VIRGINIA 33, Rutgers 6 (35-14 F)