Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Week 2 FEI Ratings

Updated through the results of September 12th games. Only FBS games are considered.

RankTeamW-LFEI
1Florida1-00.287
2USC2-00.243
3Texas2-00.224
4Ohio State1-10.202
5Alabama2-00.189
6West Virginia1-00.188
7Oklahoma0-10.188
8Virginia Tech1-10.187
9LSU2-00.179
10BYU2-00.164
11Georgia Tech1-00.158
12Michigan2-00.154
13Penn State2-00.154
14Clemson1-10.150
15Notre Dame1-10.146
16Auburn2-00.145
17Georgia1-10.145
18Oklahoma State1-10.132
19Iowa1-00.128
20Boston College1-00.127
21California1-00.122
22Kansas1-00.118
23Arkansas0-00.117
24South Carolina1-10.108
25Texas Tech1-00.104
26Vanderbilt0-10.103
27Boise State2-00.102
28Miami1-00.097
29TCU1-00.097
30Florida State0-10.096
31Utah2-00.096
32Navy1-10.091
33Pittsburgh1-00.084
34Southern Mississippi1-00.081
35Arizona1-00.077
36Oregon1-10.077
37Missouri2-00.073
38East Carolina0-10.066
39Michigan State0-10.066
40Wisconsin2-00.061
41UCLA2-00.061
42Fresno State0-10.060
43Central Michigan1-10.059
44North Carolina1-00.055
45Arizona State0-00.055
46Cincinnati1-00.054
47South Florida1-00.051
48Wake Forest1-10.045
49Houston1-00.044
50Louisville0-00.043
51Oregon State1-00.037
52North Carolina State0-10.036
53Tennessee1-10.027
54Texas A&M1-00.026
55Minnesota2-00.025
56Stanford1-10.023
57Tulsa2-00.019
58Mississippi1-00.016
59Purdue1-10.016
60Connecticut1-10.012
61Central Florida0-10.012
62Northwestern1-00.004
63Air Force0-10.001
64Northern Illinois0-1-0.009
65Rutgers0-1-0.010
66Virginia0-1-0.012
67Nebraska2-0-0.016
68Baylor1-0-0.016
69Bowling Green1-1-0.024
70Kansas State0-1-0.029
71Middle Tennessee1-1-0.030
72Maryland0-1-0.030
73Toledo1-1-0.043
74UAB1-1-0.044
75Wyoming0-1-0.048
76Marshall0-1-0.053
77Iowa State0-1-0.056
78Akron0-1-0.062
79Louisiana Tech0-2-0.065
80Hawaii1-0-0.069
81Troy0-2-0.073
82Kentucky1-0-0.074
83Ball State0-1-0.084
84Ohio1-1-0.088
85Kent State0-1-0.093
86Nevada0-1-0.095
87UTEP0-2-0.095
88Louisiana Monroe0-1-0.097
89Louisiana Lafayette1-0-0.099
90SMU1-0-0.101
91Washington1-1-0.101
92Indiana1-0-0.105
93Eastern Michigan0-2-0.107
94Army1-1-0.110
95Buffalo1-1-0.112
96San Diego State0-1-0.112
97Mississippi State0-1-0.116
98New Mexico0-2-0.119
99Colorado0-2-0.124
100Western Michigan0-2-0.124
101Illinois0-1-0.126
102Memphis0-2-0.127
103San Jose State0-2-0.129
104Colorado State1-0-0.134
105North Texas1-1-0.140
106UNLV0-1-0.141
107Temple0-0-0.142
108Duke1-0-0.146
109Syracuse0-2-0.149
110Florida International0-1-0.151
111Utah State0-1-0.153
112Miami (OH)0-2-0.180
113Arkansas State0-1-0.184
114Washington State0-2-0.192
115Tulane0-2-0.199
116Rice0-2-0.216
117Florida Atlantic0-1-0.226
118Western Kentucky0-2-0.238
119New Mexico State0-1-0.240
120Idaho1-1-0.243

7 comments:

Magic Rat said...

Brian, Thanks for this. I am fascinated by your work and trying to delve into it each week. (Since FO gave you pages for the College Football Intro/Toolbox in their annual this year, I've been hooked.)

I noticed Florida's FEI dropped from a projected .341 in pre-season to a .287 after their first FBS game against Troy. Last year it looks like you reduced the projection 1/7 after each game until 7 games were played and the projection was then discarded. If that is still the case this year, it sure seems like Florida must have had a low GE last week for one game with minor weighting to drag down the FEI so much. Can you shed some light on that? Thanks.

Magic Rat said...

Specific Question: What did Kentucky do -- a 30-20 projected winner over Miami (OH) but won 42-0 -- to drop from their projected FEI of -.013 to -.074 after the Miami game? How is that possible?

Wheell said...

I can wait to see how badly you expect Florida to pound Tennessee. Can you take into account the: You deserve to suffer factor?

footballaddict said...

dude you are an idiot, how could you put Boise State at 27, and put BYU at 10. One thing I do like though is that you put Idaho dead last, good job for doing that! Also how could you put Cal at 21, they're better than that! I cannot beleive that you put THE Ohio State at 4, they lost this week!! I mean they have to at least be at 6 or 7 come on!!!

TJ said...

I don't think footballaddict gets it ... either that or he's an ass. Check out the right side, it explains how the ratings are generated. Has nothing to do with his opinions.

LaFortune Teller said...

Magic Rat --
The projections do lose weight similar to what you suggested -- roughly speaking, 1/7 per week over the first seven weeks of the year. But each team's projected data isn't isolated to that team. The FEI formula "solves for" the respective ratings of all 120 teams relative to one another. I don't know that I could isolate any one reason for Florida's or Kentucky's drop, but the outcome of their games to date, the change in ratings of their opponents to date, and to some extent the revised big picture of all teams relative to one another changes each week, too.

So, I don't run 2009 numbers entirely separate from projected numbers and work out the weighting independently. Instead, the projections themselves change somewhat for all teams -- and the changes can be especially felt by conferences as a whole.

capp said...

Where is the expanded data (CSV format) with Off/Def Efficiency, etc? Will we get to see the F+ rating that was covered in the FO Almanac?